A BASEBALL GEEK

From the basement November 23

2008-11-23T20:12:00.005-05:00

It must be winter. Ok, it's not winter but I'm in my basement blogging, a definite reminder that baseball and golf are over. I returned to the world of web egocentricity (is that a word? sounds like one) last week with a post on the Rule IV draft at Maury Brown's The Biz of Baseball .

This past season was the first for independent baseball in Ottawa. On a personal level, it was a hit. My boys (7 & 5) are now old enough to enjoy watching and playing baseball, so they had a blast. On a business level, well...the owners declared bankruptcy in September.

Earlier this week, CanAm League commissioner Miles Wolff came to town to officially announce that the league will field a team in Ottawa for the 09 season.

Is the upcoming 17th consecutive season of professional baseball in Ottawa also the last? Many factors will determine whether professional baseball continues to be played here, including support, municipal politics, the local pro sports landscape, real estate and CanAm League fortunes.

Bankruptcy for last season's owners left the CanAm League with few options. Minus Ottawa, the league was left with seven teams. An odd number of teams is unworkable in professional baseball because games are scheduled practically every day during the season. The necessity of fielding an 8th team left two options.

1. The league - de facto the owners of the franchises - operate a "road only" club. The league opted for this solution in 07, prior to coming to Ottawa for the 08 season. Funding salaries, travel and accommodation for an 8th "road only" team from the revenues of 7 actual franchises was evidently discussed but rejected by a majority of league owners.

2. Return to Ottawa. At the press conference this week, Commissioner Wolff emphasized that the league is returning for 09 because he believes this market can support a franchise long term. That is debatable - Mr. Wolff also admitted that he could provide a dozen reasons why his league should not have returned to Ottawa - but the return of the league for 09 is perhaps an example of making virtue out of necessity. The CanAm League, not last seasons' operators of the Ottawa franchise, entered into an agreement with the City of Ottawa to lease the ballpark for the 08 and 09 seasons. Mr. Wolff acknowledged at the press conference that his league was obligated to pay the rent for 09 regardless of whether they fielded a team. (Media reports have speculated that he personally, not the league, is responsible for the lease) The lease commitment for 09 has to have mitigated against the option of funding a "road only" club.

The fundamentals which made Ottawa a desirable market for the CanAm League to enter last season remain in place. These fundamentals are encouraging for those of us who hope that Ottawa remains home to a CanAm League franchise.

The Ottawa region, including Gatineau, is home to approximately 1.2 million. A market this size is appealing to a minor league where average per game attendance ranged from a high of 3200 (Quebec City) to a low of 1500 (Nashua) for the 2008 season. Ottawa was fifth in the eight team league in attendance in 2008, averaging 2,200 (more on that below).

The City of Ottawa possesses a first rate baseball facility. Rapids Stadium is a AAA quality ballpark in terms of playing field and clubhouses. The capacity of 10,000 is more than adequate and if anything too large for a CanAm League franchise. The stadium also houses a restaurant with a great view of the field, concessions are up to par and parking is ample for the great majority of dates.

Geographically, Ottawa is an important market for the CanAm League. The Quebec City franchise is easily the most successful franchise in the league and is owned by Commissioner Wolff. Mr. Wolff's long term plans for the league include franchises in Ottawa and Montreal. The Independent Baseball Insider newsletter reported last month that, "Wolff also frets that losing Ottawa could damage the league’s chances of eventually getting into Montreal, where the issue is lack of a suitable facility."

The 09 season is critical to the future of professional baseball in Ottawa. If the CanAm League (or a new local owner(s), Mr. Wolff is actively searching) incurs substantial losses this season it is unlikely they would pursue a lease extension. Without a tenant, it is unlikely the City of Ottawa would preserve the stadium.

How much support is necessary to make the CanAm League viable in Ottawa? According to Mr. Wolff, average attendance of 2,500 to 3,000 is required to sustain a franchise here. Mr. Wolff also stated that revenues of approximately $1.6 million per season would be sufficient to maintain a franchise in Ottawa. Some back of the envelope math suggests that revenues of $1.6 million are achievable with an average attendance of less than 2,500. 47 home dates per year X 2,500 per game = total attendance of 117,500. Total attendance of 117,500 divided into $1.6 million = a per cap of between $13 and $14. A per cap of $14 seems unreasonably low given that adult tickets were priced at $10 last season. Parking and concessions should easily bring the per cap above $14.

How did the Ottawa franchise fare in 08? Last season's owners, Rob Hall and Rick Anderson of Momentous / Zip.ca, claimed losses of $1.4 million last season. Much skepticism surrounds this claim as approximately half of the money owed to creditors is owed to Momentous, the parent company of the now defunct club. The CanAm League website lists Ottawa as 5th in the 8 team league in average attendance last season, virtually tied with New Jersey for 4th, at approximately 2,200 per game. But what does that 2,200 figure mean? Professional sports leagues, minor and major, often report "tickets issued" when publishing attendance figures. If the published figure of 2,200 is accurate it is difficult to understand how losses of $1.4 million were incurred, given Mr. Wolff's assertion that attendance of 2,500 should make a franchise viable. Anecdotally, I received 12 free tickets this past season (and I knew nobody in ownership or management), at games I attended announced attendance appeared inflated and a ticket office employee told me that "a ton" of tickets were being given away.

UPDATE NOVEMBER 26 : One of last year's co owners, Rob Hall, is quoted in today's Ottawa Sun, " The 2,200 number was the published number the league asked for that includes all the tickets that were given away. We donated a lot to charities and community groups, even our neighbours at Canadian Tire, to try and encourage attendance. Actual butts in the seats, the exact number was 1,256 (per game)" The next logical question is how many of those 1,256 are paid admissions?

Is average paid attendance of 2,500 fans per game realistic in Ottawa? The last season of AAA in Ottawa in 07 saw average per game attendance dwindle to below 1,900. The CanAm League does have a potentially significant advantage over AAA in that their season doesn't start until mid - late May and finishes at the end of August. During it's final seasons here, the AAA franchise did average attendance in the 2,000 plus range during the summer months that the CanAm League plays.

Is Ottawa a minor league city? Independent minor league baseball thrives in two Canadian cities, Quebec City and Winnipeg. As already stated, Quebec City consistently leads the CanAm League in attendance. Winnipeg's independent Northern League franchise attracted an average 6,500 fans per game last season, a typical level of support for the Goldeyes. Winnipeg is consistently amongst the leaders in minor league average attendance, both independent and affiliated. Minor league baseball is much less popular in other Canadian cities. Ottawa, Edmonton, Calgary and Vancouver are former AAA cities, all save for Vancouver are now home to independent league teams. Vancouver is now home to short season A level affiliated baseball. Calgary @ 1551 and Edmonton @ 1792 were last & 2nd last in Northern League average per game attendance in 07. Last season saw Calgary and Edmonton join the independent Golden League and average per game attendance declined to 1,269 in Calgary and 1,086 in Edmonton. The 09 season will see the arrival of another Canadian independent league franchise when the Golden League debuts in Victoria. Is it coincidence that minor league baseball is most popular in smaller Canadian cities that are not home to the NHL? Is minor league baseball too "minor league" for Ottawa?

What is the long term future of the CanAm League? According to figures compiled by The Independent Baseball Insider, CanAm League attendance declined by almost 200,000 last season. This is a precipitous decline, almost 20%, from 1,040,000 in 07 to 844,000 in 08. Will widespread economic problems impact significantly on all sports leagues, including the CanAm? Some think that minor league baseball has an advantage in difficult times because of it's relatively affordable prices. The larger concern might be the impact that economic problems have on the personal financial situations of franchise owners. Typically professional sports teams are owned by individuals who treat them as "hobbies ". The real worth of these owners is tied up in other businesses and investments. If the net worth of these owners is impacted will it cause some of them to walk away from their sports interests?

Has control of the real estate been a factor in ownership changes? The departure of AAA from Ottawa after the 07 season left the City of Ottawa without a tenant for it's baseball stadium. Local businessman David Butler approached the city (unsuccessfully) with a proposal to give him year round control of stadium real estate. Mr. Butler's proposal included fielding a CanAm League team but also the right to stage concerts ( Mr. Butler was involved in staging a concert at the stadium in July 07 ) and constructing a permanent roof over the playing field to allow for usage during the winter months. In May 08, then Rapidz co owner Rick Anderson told the Ottawa Business Journal that staging concerts at the stadium was part of his long term plan. He added that, "The lease requires us to obtain the city's approval if and when we do proceed with concerts,". On September 29, the Rapidz owners declared bankruptcy. Subsequent media reports revealed that there were failed negotiations between the Rapidz owners and the city over control of the stadium real estate. The former owners and city managers differed on the details of the negotiations but reports ranged from discussions of the club owners purchasing the real estate from the city to negotiating a long term lease granting the club full control over use of the real estate.

If new local ownership is found, will control of the real estate again be an issue? If yes, how might city council react? Professional baseball and The City of Ottawa have a problematic history that might work against any such proposals. The funding of the construction of the stadium was to be shared between the city and the original owner of the AAA franchise Howard Darwin. Mr. Darwin was to be responsible for 25% of the stadium costs with the city responsible for the balance. When Mr. Darwin sold the franchise in 2000, $3 million remained unpaid on the debt he owed to the City of Ottawa. (Mr. Darwin would differ) In addition to the unresolved dispute involving construction costs, the second AAA owner Ray Pecor, filed an $11 million lawsuit against the city over a dispute concerning parking at the stadium. The city has also experienced problems with P3 partnerships ( public / private ) involving city owned sports facilities, including the Bell Sensplex and the Ray Friel Centre.

Any future owner of a local baseball franchise wanting more revenue streams from the stadium might be competing with other professional sports interests also asking for political cooperation on use of city owned real estate. Local developers are currently negotiating with the city to redevelop Lansdowne Park. The proposed plan for the city owned land includes professional sports, concerts, retail and residential. In addition, if and when local NHL owner Eugene Melnyk is awarded an MLS franchise, he too will want city owned real estate to build on. Public and political support for city assisted professional sports ventures is probably finite.

Much has changed politically in the region since the city constructed the baseball stadium. The mayor at the time, Jim Durrell, was an avid supporter of professional sports in the city. Mr. Durrell was also effective in advancing his agenda at council. Regional politics are fundamentally different now due to the amalgamation in 2001 of the "old city of Ottawa" with the former suburban cities of Nepean, Orleans and Gloucester plus a handful of rural townships. Some question if there is sufficient popular and political support outside the "old city of Ottawa" to make government contributions to professional sports in “the old city” viable.

Few in this region would miss local professional baseball more than me, but my opinions on the future viability of the sport here have not changed since I wrote not quite a year ago; “ I hope I'm wrong but the reprieve for professional baseball in town will be short lived. “

Hope to see many, many folks at the ballpark this summer.

AUTISM

2008-04-13T19:23:00.002-04:00

Maury Brown has learned that his youngest child ( 3 years old ) is autistic.

Please support the Brown family and all families who struggle against autism.

Please read Maury's posting to learn about autism and how you can assist.

From the basement March 22

2008-03-22T14:16:00.004-04:00

Be careful what you wish for.....

I'm soon to be posting stuff @ Maury Brown's Business of Sports Network. Probably most of my bloggin ( this insert hyperlink, block quote, comment & repeat hack shit ain't writin ) will be found on Maury's The Biz of Baseball platform. Thank you so much Maury for the opportunity to contribute to one of my favorite sites and in particular my favorite baseball business site. Maury's work is read and respected by every component of the baseball industry - management, labor, media, fans,players, academics, bloggers.

Short term ( next week, hopefully ) I'll submit some stuff similar to the roundup / notebook schtick I've been doing at Baseball Digest Daily. Longer term I hope to raise my game a notch and start "reporting" as opposed to just linking to other people's reporting / opinion.

In other words, I might have to get off my lazy ass and work a bit at this. Invest some time in research ( I was going to say "research more" but honestly I don't think I've done any research up to this point. Linking shouldn't be confused with researching ) and all that goes with that.

I'm kinda stunned. I've known for a handful of weeks this was happening but I didn't want to start anything before we went on holidays a few weeks back. And then I wanted to post one more "column" ( hubris ) at Baseball Digest Daily. But now that I'm actually supposed to cobble something together for Maury....I told him I'd send him somethin...jesus...he's Maury and..well...I'm a stoned guy in his basement and....I'm kinda scared. But hey, what the fuck, it's all just for fun and I suspect it will be.

Thank you so much Baseball Digest Daily for allowing me to contribute to your wonderful site. Thank you Dave Rouleau for offering me the opportunity and for your constant encouragement. Thank you Joe Hamrahi for allowing me to post at your great site that you built because of your chutzpah, grit, talent, energy, emotion and $$$. I sincerely hope that Joe and I and Dave are future colleagues somewhere in this baseball geek world ( I don't mean that in an insulting way either, quite the opposite ). Words of admiration and respect for folks @ BDD who I was proud to have my stuff lumped in with. Voros, Jon Hale, John Brattain and Bob Wirz. Thanks to Neate for linking the Miles Woolf Q&A at this blog, which led Dave Rouleau to me. Thanks to my anonymous "internet shepherd" who always has good advice and plenty of encouragement.

BTW, Opening day here in Ottawa in exactly 2 months!

From the basement February 16

2008-02-16T15:11:00.006-05:00

OTTAWA RAPIDS

I'm listening to Singin Ed Nottle while I'm typing this. He does a killer version of " That's Life ", a song I really like ( unfortunately the MP3 is truncated, 1 minute in length ). It was announced earlier this week that Mr. Nottle will manage the Ottawa Rapids this season. May 22 is opening day for the inaugural season of CanAm League ball in Ottawa. Mr. Nottle may be the most distinct ( this is Canada ) professional baseball manager employed here over the past 16 years - and I mean that in a good way. I hope to have a martini with him ( listen to the music, you'll get it ).

The press conference was a lot of fun. Unlike the mood of doom that hung over media day last year for the AAA Lynx, the atmosphere for the Rapids introductory press conference was cheerful and optimistic.

I was fortunate to meet two baseball legends. Jacques Doucet, the french language voice of the Expos for 33 years ( now voice of the Quebec CanAm franchise ) was very gracious. Equally as notable was the opportunity to meet CanAm commissioner and Ottawa franchise owner Miles Wolff. Mr. Wolff's accomplishments in the baseball industry include starting independent pro baseball in 1993 with the formation of the Northern League. Mr. Wolff was also the owner & publisher of Baseball America for 18 years. Mr. Wolff reacted to my compliments concerning his accomplishments with humility. He did allow himself a smile when I told him I admire his chutzpah.

A couple of Canadian players with plenty of professional experience are on board already. Ottawa native Mike Kusiewicz has played minor league baseball - both affiliated & independent - for the past 13 season. Returning to Ottawa is former Lynx OF Jeremy Ware . Ware is a veteran of 12 minor league season - both affiliated & independent.

I thank Ottawa blogger Carl Kiffner for the tremendous amount of time and energy he has devoted to preserving professional baseball in Ottawa. Mr. Wolff thanked Carl publicly at the press conference for his critical contributions in bringing CanAm to Ottawa. Obviously well earned. My Canada includes Carl.

Also an excuse to see Neate and eat lunch together.

BASEBALL DIGEST DAILY - BEYOND THE DIAMOND

My weekly baseball industry column - Beyond the Diamond - continues at Baseball Digest Daily. I think column # 6? will be posted soon.

Recent columns have discussed:

February 10: Salaries - out of control? hurting competitive balance?
January 31 : Rule IV draft - what is Selig doing? is it time to allow the trading of picks?, MLBAM & local digital rights.
January 24: CDM Fantasy Sports case, Congress & the supplement industry, mixed use stadium development

Thanks to BDD I attended a Jays season ticket holder event in Toronto earlier this month. It was a lot of fun. I had a good conversation with fellow BDD writer Jonathan Hale about baseball data - or more specifically the range in quality of data being collected - and baseball on the internet - how many of us geeks are there? Anyway, Jonathan is really into baseball data. He's been invited to some baseball data conference in northern CA. As I told him, in a broad sense I'm aware of what he and his peers are up to but I can't get into the math. Also, as I told him, recent history has taught us not to underestimate the baseball math geeks.

I also had the pleasure of meeting Jeff Blair. Jeff is the only Canadian baseball writer I read regularly - and I'm a Blair completist - and one of my favorites period. Jeff was really friendly and pleasant. His rep as a curmudgeon might be overstated - or part of the schtick.

Me being me, I had a really interesting discussion with the Jays VP of ticketing, Patrick Elster. Ticketing is a really hot topic ( honest ) and I plan to write about it soon @ BDD.

Following are some comments I left @ BDD the day following the Jays event.

Re: Blue Jays' State of the Franchiseby Pete Toms on Wed 06 Feb 2008 09:57 AM EST Profile Permanent Link

Jonathan, some random thoughts on last nite's " State of the Franchise ".

Competitive balance / imbalance was a prominent theme. Some fans as well as Godfrey & Ricciardi expressed their frustration with having to compete in the AL East with the Yanks and Red Sox. Godfrey was unequivocal in his support of a salary cap in MLB, he blamed the PA for the absence of one. Godfrey also expressed support for a balanced schedule, he's tired of playing the Evil Empires 38 times per season. This ( as well as the outdated Rogers Centre ) is the #1 problem that faces the Jays short and long term. Godfrey did mention that maybe the VP of Ticket Sales - Patrick Elster, also in attendance - might be happier than Ricciardi to see the Yanks and Red Sox as often as Toronto does. That's the flip side of the coin, so to speak.

Mr. Elster mentioned that ticket sales are well ahead of last season's pace. I'm not certain why that is but I wonder if secondary ticketing is having an impact...

The natives are restless....the faithful need a playoff appearance. Gibbons bashing and talk about 85 wins not cutting it anymore from the faithful were met with very positive responses... Godfrey was asked about the decline in popularity of baseball as a spectator sport in Canada and what the Jays were doing about it.... Expos, only one affiliated team remaining in the country -
A Ball in Vancouver -, the flop of the CBL, Ottawa.....He laid the blame squarely on the communities that haven't supported it, Edmonton, Calgary & Ottawa and was completely unapologetic. There have been rumors in the Ottawa press of Jays AAA coming but Godfrey's comments about Ottawa's lack of support for AAA certainly don't support that.

What the fans didn't ask about....Mitchell, PED's, McNamee, Clemens, Zaun, Glaus.....I think this is revealing. The hardcore don't care about it. For that matter, neither do the casual...tempest in a teapot.

Ricciardi's comments re. Ryan. None of the fans called him on it but he famously lied last offseason about Ryan's health so why believe him now?....The rule on TJ surgery is that velocity returns before command. Ricciardi mentioned that McGowan was pitching again a year removed from the surgery but that's to say he was performing up to his potential a year later. Two years later, last season, McGowan obviously did meet expectations.

Fun event.

So, the baseball season starts soon and golf and summer with my kids....and if last year was an indication there won't be a whole lot written here for several months. The weekly BDD column seems to more than sufficiently satisfy my pretentious urges.

Later.

From the basement January 25

2008-01-25T22:53:00.000-05:00

My 3rd column for Baseball Digest Daily is here. The column title is " Beyond the Diamond ". Thanks to Joe Hamrahi for naming it, I was too lazy to think of anything. Anyway, we seem to be on a schedule of it appearing every Thursday.

YA GOTTA BE GOOD TO BE LUCKY

The Red Sox are oh so trendy. They even have their own honorary hipster band,
completely in keeping with Gammons ( official mascot ) and Epstein ( MLB's alpha metrosexual ). Everything they do is lauded as cutting edge and everybody associated with them is a genius. John Henry, Theo, NESN, FSG, Roush, Bill James, the preservation and renovation of Fenway, the farm system - Paplebon, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester, Bucholz... - the Red Sox are at the front of the curve in every facet of operating an MLB team. They are state of the art.

They certainly deserve the praise, they are a model franchise. But a lot of the fawning comes from their winning 2 World Series in 4 seasons. But there's a lot of luck in winning a World Series and even more in winning 2 in 4 seasons.

I wrote here in the fall that postseason prognostications are bullshit - whether proven right or wrong - because the baseball playoffs are a complete crapshoot. In November somebody way smarter than me - Stefan Szymanski, Professor of Economics, Imperial College London - explained it here.

"...sports championships are contests involving repeated trials, which work in favour of a dominant team when outcomes are based on averaging these trials (league or series play), but against it when outcomes are based on elimination. For example, suppose the Yankees buy themselves a 60% probability of winning each game they plays (those are pretty good odds). Then if they play a best of five series their probability of winning it is 68%. But if they have to win four series in order to win the Fall Classic, then their probability of success is only 22%. Moreover, even if the process is repeated seven times there is still an 18% probability they will fail (unlikely perhaps, but no so improbable)."

So what are the odds of winning 2 championships in 4 seasons? I'm not arguing that the Red Sox aren't deserving of their recent World Series victories, they won fair and square. But it's baseball and there is a whole lot of randomness, which is to say, luck.

Are the Red Sox that dominant or is 2 out of 4 just part of the probability equations? Are the Yankees of the past 7 seasons that much inferior to their predecessors who won 3 straight? Were Tino, Brosius, O'Neill & Bernie great pressure players or in the right place....Does this explain how a really mediocre Cards team - 83 regular season victories - wins the 06 World Series?

Is it why articles like this aren't worth reading?

FAN CYNICISM

I read not so recently in SBJ that a USA Today/Gallup poll from December revealed that " fans weren’t surprised by the player behavior outlined in the Mitchell Report.." I don't find that unexpected but it says something about our collective cynicism. Yes we know pro sports ( "amateur" for that matter ) is dirty but more importantly we don't care anymore or any less.

We know we're not going through male menopause in a corn field in Iowa. We know sports is a big, big business. We know baseball players aren't role models, we know they are entertainers. We don't care about sexual harrassment or animal abuse or game fixing. Signs of our moral ambiguity. Did good guys and bad guys go out about the same time as Hawkeye Pierce? Maybe that's not altogether bad.

CAN AM LEAGUE

After 15 seasons of AAA in Ottawa we will be watching the independent CanAm League here come May.

I've never followed indy ball. I've been aware of it. I see the indy leagues in the transactions and I've watched many AAA players here with indy experience but I can't claim to have followed it. But now that I'll be watching it I've started to pay some attention. I look for indy ball news in BA and Ballpark Digest. I asked my wife for a subscription to Independent Baseball Insider for Christmas.

Some of the stuff I'm learning is disappointing and reinforces what I suspected, which is we are near or at the bottom of the indy food chain. I surfed CanAm rosters from last season in preparation for a Q & A with CanAm commissioner and baseball legend Miles Wolff and found few recognizable names. The CanAm 94 game schedule was another indication that this ain't a premium indy league ( the best indy league is the Atlantic League which will play a 140 game schedule this season ). This piece from last week claims that the Northern League is having a tough time recruiting players and appears a poor sister in the indy pecking order. More important to me, the article lumps the NL in with the CanAm.

Oh well, sitting outside watching bush league ball is better than sitting in the basement.

POLITICS

"It is possible that the BALCO scandal could have been averted had Brian Sabean and Peter Magowan acted in a responsible fashion." So said Rep. Henry Waxman, D-Los Angeles, chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee in reaction to allegations in the Mitchell Report that Sabean turtled when a team trainer - Stan Conte - raised concerns about Greg Anderson - Bonds "personal trainer" - peddling steroids in the Giants clubhouse.

Is Mr. Waxman really that stupid? Does he really believe that if Greg Anderson had been banned from the Giants' clubhouse that Victor Conte ( no relation as far as I know to the aforementioned Stan Conte ) and Patrick Arnold would have stopped manufacturing and selling steroids?

I doubt he's that stupid. I do suspect he's engaging in such hyperbole to bring attention to himself.

MY FAVORITE BASEBALL PLAYER EVER

Kazuhito Tadano, my favorite baseball player ever, has returned to Japan after playing in the PCL & IL the past handful of years. He also logged a bit of time with the Indians.

I am proud to say that I saw him pitch here in Ottawa as a Buffalo Bison. This is more memorable than seeing either Deion Sanders or Jose Canseco here.

I love Tadano because, as far as I know, he is the only pro athlete to have "appeared" in a gay porn. But it's not the fact that he "appears" in a gay porn that makes him my favorite. I love him because he claims not to be gay! I've always considered his stance on this Clintonian, " I did not have sex with that woman ". What do Tadano and Slick Wille think they were doing? Are there more amongst us who share their perspective on this?

FACEBOOK - THE COMMODIFICATION OF HUMAN RELATIONSHIPS

I love the internet ( that's not hip, isn't "inter webs" de rigeur? ) or more specifically baseball on the internet. I waste way more time during the winter in front of the PC than the TV.

I haven't gotten into Facebook though, probably due to my age more than any other factor. I am a Facebook member ( is that the correct term? ). I joined a group that was formed in support of a friend who was being sued for some stuff he wrote on his blog. Subsequent to that I joined a group whose common interest was bringing independent ball here and I also joined the Baseball Digest Daily group. But I never visit Facebook and I've entered the bare minimum of
information about myself because I prefer to be quiet about my politics and I'm way too old to be defining myself by my preferences in movies, TV shows and music.

Having said that, if you are part of Facebook I suggest you read this, especially if you're a leftist.

From the basement January 12

2008-01-12T18:33:00.000-05:00

Sometime between now and tomorrow I am expecting to see something I wrote here. Here is Baseball Digest Daily. The plan is that I will submit a weekly column on matters pertaining to the baseball industry.

I've been perusing BDD the past several days and the contributors are serious fans. A handful have impressive resumés. There is one former THT writer, Craig Brown. And one current THT writer, Geoff Young. Rob McQuown worked for STATS, Inc. in their formative years. STATS, Inc. - as detailed in "The Numbers Game" by Alan Schwarz - had an enormous impact on how baseball statistics are compiled, interpreted and utilized in MLB. Mr. McQuown has also consulted for both management and labor. Gordon Berger is a former player agent ( NFL & CFL ) and has taught sports and entertainment law. Bill Chuck has contributed his writing to MSNBC.com and MLB.com.

BDD is also comprehensive, transactions, stats, standings, prospects and news. There is also some pretty good chat. Kudos and best of luck to Joe Hamrahi and his colleagues who have obviously invested a lot - and I don't mean solely monetarily - into this endeavor. Thanks to Joe for the opportunity.

Also I like what BDD is not. It's not cheerleading, or jock sniffing fandom or baseball as a metaphor for "life" ( whatever "life" is, not even I'm stoned enough to ponder that ) nor is it a Deadspin knockoff, which there are a plethora of.

I don't read Deadspin although I have read a few Will Leitch pieces that I found linked elsewhere. The bits of Mr. Leitch's writing that I've read I liked. His post indictment Bonds piece for instance. I don't read it either because I'm too old or I just don't like the hipster, slacker, pop culture, ironic, sarcastic etc. tone. In fairness to Will Leitch - like he'd give a shit - my perceptions of him and Deadspin stem primarily from:

1. His headshot, which I've seen a few times in SBJ and hasn't been updated in at least a year. He may be a recovering slacker ( I say recovering because I suspect he works way too hard on Deadspin to qualify for slackerdom any longer ) but retains the haircut. ( I, on the other hand am 45 and my hair has recently started leaving. ) Anyway, his haircut says hipster, it doesn't say Bristol CT. ( Maybe he's not in Bristol but that's not my point. )

2. I read he wrote a slacker blog before Deadspin. Once a slacker....maybe I'm just anti slacker.

3. His acolytes, they're everywhere on the net and multiplying daily. If imitation is the sincerest....Will Leitch is a sports web deity. His legion of imitators invariably list Deadspin on their "blogroll" and include lots of pictures / video and pop culture riffing. I think I "get it" but I don't give a shit, which isn't to say it's bad.

What is happening with baseball on the web?

I see more and more baseball blogs. I've been yammering on here off and on for about a year and already I see plenty of baseball blogs that have debuted subsequent to mine. I suspect this trend isn't about to change. I think I'm also ( I have zero empirical evidence ) seeing more baseball / sports blogs with a stable of regular contributors. I suspect - again only instinct - that it is an attempt ( probably futile and misguided ) by us ignored, near smart, amateurs to enlarge our audience ( perhaps audience is a misnomer ) and reduce the time commitment by joining the digital commune. Writing for BDD puts me at the front of this line.

How do we baseball web geeks spend our time online? Are we consuming information? Opinion? Are we chatting / arguing? Watching video, live games? The obvious answer is all of those. But how much time are we devoting to each? What do we want more of, less of? I want information primarily, particulary during the season. The fundamentals, box scores, stats, transactions etc. The opinions become redundant, i.e. how much is there to say about the Swisher trade or Clemens / McNamee? Chatting is an offseason time waster although if I was of Deadspin age no doubt I would be conversing via my laptop while simultaneously watching baseball, listening to music, masturbating (not to imply that masturbating is particular to the Deadspin generation) and doing my homework.

How many read the baseball geek sites? Is it a small group of us - thousands, tens of thousands? - who read THT that also read BP, that also read BA....Does it matter? Do we know? Even the big media companies can't agree on "internet metrics" or "analytics" or whatever. From SBJ's "ratings issue" last year. " ...there is no de facto standard of traffic measurement, and there likely never will be. Sites freely pick and choose among the sea of available numbers, traversing everything from page views and unique visitors to time spent online, constructing and depicting at will their own preferred version of reality." In a recent interview with Maury Brown, Bob Bowman President & CEO of MLBAM is unequivocal in his criticism of Nielsen Media's online rating system. Mr. Bowman admits that Nielsen is the "standard bearer" of the third party measurement agencies but calls their online ratings "a shot in the dark".

Do the big media companies and leagues understand the web? ESPN believes more is more, buying writers and web sites as fast as they can. They lured Rick Reilly away from Time Warner / SI for a reported $3 million per and also brought aboard Howard Bryant ( The Post ) and Selena Roberts ( NY Times ). According to this - H/T Shysterball - ESPN "...in the last 18 months, it has hired at least 15 writers and editors from major newspapers and magazines..." The buying spree is likely the genesis of this rumor. Amongst the many web sites ESPN has purchased are the internationally focused Scrum.com and Cricinfo.com. Why not buy up all the content? Disney is thought to be worth roughly $67 billion dollars with ESPN responsible for $30 billion of that figure. But does the buying spree mean that ESPN is making money off the web or they have so much money they just don't know what else to do with it?

Are the big media companies still trying to build the first "Facebook" of sports social networking? Time Warner / SI is attempting with Fan Nation, Disney / ESPN does the same schtick and I have to assume their competitors are doing more of the same. Or has the "Facebook" for sports been built. Is it called "Facebook"?

What about the leagues? Do they understand the web? The NHL is in court with one of their own - MSG - over digital rights and the NFL only recently brought all their digital under "The Shield". MLB, while the most succesful league on the web, is still grappling with control - should it be at the league level or franchise level? - of in-market broadband and mobile streaming rights. Rights to and league approaches to secondary ticketing on the web is also evolving, often
contentiously, in all the "ball & stick" leagues.

At least one banker wonders if teams are making money off the web or well, digitally. Mitchell Ziets from a recent SBJ, "...there is going to have to be a quest to monetize digital media. You're building on value obviously with MLBAM as a good example of one....It goes league by league, but it's not being monetized yet...when we do our advisory work on acquisitions, it's hard to figure out the value of digital media because they're not monetizing that." So why the huge investments in it? So that the consumer isn't somewhere else? Maybe the web can't be monetized? ( what a fucking awful verb ) At least not to the degree that big industry requires?

Is this the future? ( From this guy's book ) "The information business is being transformed by the Internet into the sheer noise of a hundred million bloggers all simultaneously talking about themselves." Or baseball in our case.

From the basement December 31

2007-12-31T18:42:00.000-05:00

A rarity, a post from above ground. We're visiting my mother at her home in Trenton ON for a few days. I think it's really cool that my 66 year old mother - raised without indoor plumbing, blue collar her entire life, never learned to type - got wired a year or two ago. In fact she explained to me today how she rid herself of spam - although she calls it junk mail. Good on my mom. On to baseball.

I think owning an MLB franchise isn't about the baseball business anymore and probably hasn't been for a while. Maybe that's an exaggeration but nonetheless it is increasingly the case.

We all know there was a time - not that long ago it seems - when guys owned sports teams because they liked it and it was also how they earned a living. Tickets, hot dogs, beer, that was pretty much the extent of it. Worked fine in MLB if for no other reason than the players were slaves thanks to the reserve clause. How could you not make a go of it? Things changed, the players were, to a large degree freed, salaries rose and owners adapted in order to survive and prosper. The last of the old school, the Griffiths & Veecks were succeeded by much wealthier hobbyists and big media companies and corporations. They cashed in big on TV. Ted Turner was the visionary, recognizing the value in the cheap programming that his baseball team provided to his new superstation. WGN followed and currently several teams have stakes in their own RSNs. They also were masters in blackmailing local governments to build new stadiums, in better locations, with better sightlines, better concessions, better signage and lots of luxury suites for the local corporate community. Although the business changed, in one way or another the revenues seemed directly related to the baseball team, even if their beancounters wouldn't admit it. Today the lines are a lot blurrier.

The present and the future appears to be real estate development. Is the cost of owning and operating a franchise part of the price you pay to develop real estate around it? Are MLB and the other ball and stick leagues part of "Shoppertainment"?

From a recent SBJ feature on AEG. "Building entertainment villages is part of what Leiweke ( my note - Tim Leiweke is the CEO of AEG ) believes is the dominant sports business theme of the 21st century. In the 1970's and early 80's, he said, sports was driven by ticket sales. Later in the 80's, television money became vital, and in the 90's, amid a building boom, premium seats and suites became a huge part of the business. "Now, when you look at what sustains growth, it's about development around the arenas," he said. "Entertainment districts are huge."

From this excellent piece in The Sun Chronicle, "Team owners see their teams or facilities they can control as a way to catalyze other types of development," Bragitikos said. Chuck Bragitikos is the President of Vibrant Development Group which "specializes in developing compelling retail, dining and entertainment destinations." and has worked with the NFL amongst others.

From a recent banker roundtable in SBJ, managing director of Societe Generale, Randy Campbell explains what owning a big league team can do for you. "...these were sort of "mom and pop" clubs to a degree, in terms of maybe how they were run or operated or viewed. Now, you clearly have a lot more sophisticated investors not only looking at sports teams but looking at media rights, looking at stadiums, looking at development around stadiums. I think that people are recognizing that these sports clubs have great brands; they have great, almost a magnetic, power to sort of draw people to them. Kind of trying to think through how you further monetize that brand value, I think, is going to be the next key thing to do."

From the same aforementioned Sun Chronicle piece:

"In Arlington, Texas, the 135-acre "Glorypark" will encompass more than 2 million square feet of office and retail space, three major hotels and 2,000 residential units sandwiched between a new ballpark for the Texas Rangers and the new Dallas Cowboys domed stadium. The complex will open in 2009."

And.

"In Fremont, Calif., the Oakland Athletics major league baseball team is proposing a "ballpark village," complete with a new stadium, a retail-office complex, 3,100 residential units, and even a new elementary school."

The Cards are also constructing a ballpark village centred around the new Busch Stadium. And the D Rays proposal for a new stadium is based on the destruction of their current stadium and subsequent redevelopment of the site - although they don't own it but I digress.

Examples abound across all leagues and in fact on other continents. L.A. Live, The O2, Patriot Place, Xanadu, on and on....

The pro sports real estate "play" ( why do they call it a play? ) also seems to be a response to skyrocketing construction costs and the fact that John Q taxpayer seems to have cottoned on to the scam of publicly funded stadia for the benefit of super wealthy individuals and corporations.

From the same SBJ banker roundtable, Mitchell Ziets on stadium financing. "You're seeing less appetite from taxpayers and political officials to put public money in....folks are getting a lot more creative about how they're packaging and dressing up public money...you're getting a lot of deals where taxes are generated by the project or by a development project around the stadium or around the arena (and) are getting funneled back into the project. You're seeing that in Oakland with a development deal...You look more at development plans to sustain the financing plans."

See the December 06 posting by Phil Miller at The Sport Economist. "...sports stadiums are not the boon of economic development that they are often portrayed to be and, thankfully, public money has not been as easy to come by in many instances. That's why some recent public financing packages include plans to have ballpark villages developed as a part of an agreement for public financing....So politicians are seemingly more resistant, thankfully, to giving subsidies just for stadiums by themselves. But package in some secondary development (which, if it draws any extra economic activity to the site, will probably draw it from elsewhere in the region) with the subsidy request and see if you can get the necessary votes."

Maybe most importantly, will "shoppertainment" revenue be counted as part of team / league revenues? Gene Upshaw and Bob Kraft are already being asked this question in light of the upcoming Patriot Place. Stay tuned...

Scouts N The Hood

In April I blogged about the much discussed subject of the declining number of African Americans in MLB. Some blamed MLB and colleges - in part - for not scouting "urban" communities as enthusiastially as they should. John Helyar , "Caucasian scouts were disinclined to bird-dog the declining number of inner-city ball fields when college baseball programs had so much talent." I've read little about this subject in the baseball media since the controversy died out in the spring - culminating on Jackie Robinson Day April 16 - until a few days ago when this piece on MLB's Urban Youth Academy in Compton popped up. Coincidentally I read this piece in Baseball America about a Winter Meetings get together of college baseball coaches and MLB scouting directors about the same time. What's notable about the BA piece are the critical comments by Washington Nationals scouting director Dana Brown.

"As for the issue of getting more black players in college baseball, coaches indicated helplessness because the pool of black players at the youth levels is so small. Coaches also said their lack of scholarships was causing them to lose quality athletes of all ethnicities to football and basketball. But Nationals scouting director Dana Brown, one of just two black scouting directors in baseball, expressed frustration with the level of discourse on that issue. "I thought, personally, it was kind of window dressing," Brown said. "I thought it was something that was brought up. I'm scouting a lot of (prep) players across the country; certainly not all of these African-American players are going to be drafted. There's a lot of guys I see that are good students that could go to some of these elite schools that just don't get recruited. I don't buy that there's not enough African-American players that we can get in school that we can recruit."...Brown cited former Florida prep standout turned Southern star Rickie Weeks, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2003 draft, as a black player who should have been more highly recruited. "What happened with Rickie Weeks?" Brown asked. "How does Rickie Weeks get out of Florida?...I just think that coaches have to make a conscious effort to go out and recruit players. They always talk about, 'Well, there's a drop-off in African-American players in the game.' Colleges have to scout them, recruit them, sign them and develop them also."

From the basement December 26

2007-12-26T13:53:00.000-05:00

THE MITCHELL REPORT

I think MLB is pretty happy, honest. I don't think they wanted this or orchestrated it but they are certainly making the most of it.

MLB is show biz and I'm a believer that no publicity.....The Mitchell Report has been on the radar screen of us geeks for at least 20 months. The Mitchell Report only gets on the radar screen of the rank & file - who comprise most of the 79 million who attended last season - after it is released. How valuable is the widespread coverage it received on the evening news, the front pages, talk radio?.....It gets people talking about baseball and that can't be all bad.

MLB is plenty astute and sophisticated enough to manage public opinion. In fact The Mitchell Report is reinforcing an important message for MLB - a message that they have always promoted - which is that baseball is important to the "social fabric" of America or whatever....Didn't Mitchell tell us that "it is imperative for Major League Baseball to 'capture the moral high ground'." I think you're more likely to find this sort of opinion amongst general columnists and talking heads than in the baseball media. The baseball press made up their minds long ago and I think the general consensus is that yes the game is / was dirty but so is everybody else's so big deal. But the evening news and front pages of newspapers reach an audience much broader - and more important to MLB - than us hardcores. This is where the idea that baseball is important to America is reinforced and promoted. That ballparks are places where for generations, family, friends, colleagues & neighbors - America - gather in harmony. It's a tradition, not a business. How can the discussion and reinforcement of these notions be bad for your product?

Early indicators are that it's not having a negative impact on MLB. A lot of teams, including the Yankees, are hiking ticket prices and there has been no negative impact on MLB's credit rating.

In the near future, MLB will take great advantage of the big stage afforded them by Congress to solemnly ensure that they now recognize the scope of the problem and will take the necessary steps to protect the sanctity of the national pastime and blah, blah. More important is the grievance filed by the PA on behalf of Guillen. If the PA wins the grievance this will get very interesting. The dirty players "outed" in Mitchell will be able to tell MLB to shove it - I hope they do but I digress - but the PA, for the health of the industry can't be perceived as uncooperative...

Longer term, the real issues are articulated below by folks smarter than me in this piece.

“You have to remember these are commercial enterprises which oversee their own testing and that is an unacceptable conflict of interest because profit-making operations don’t want the negative publicity of catching all the drug cheats,” said John Hoberman, who has written books on doping in sports.

"Testing catches the careless and the stupid,” said Charles E. Yesalis, a professor of sports science at Penn State University. “If you believe only 1 to 2 percent use drugs, that is incredibly naïve. Drug use is the greatest problem facing elite sports, and testing creates the facade that everyone is clean.”“The major breakthroughs have come from law enforcement, not by any testing,” he said. “Testing is there to provide the fan, who is already disinterested in drug use, with plausible deniability because the leagues tell the fans the athletes are clean because they have drug testing.”

I surfed through my blog looking for Mitchell / steroids commentary and I think some of it holds up pretty well.

From the basement January 30

Fans know the players are juiced, we've known for years and evidently most of us don't care. The fans who expend the most time and energy on this subject are the hardcore geeks like myself and we will never abandon the game over drugs / cheating, because we love it. The casual fans, who comprise most of the gate, don't engage in these debates. They want cold beer, sunny weather, a 6-4-3 double play, a home run, a win for the good guys and a game played in under 3 hours.

From the basement Feb 23

MLB.com is a shill for the owners. Yesterday there was a fluff piece on the George Mitchell investigation, his stormtroopers are touring Spring Training. The last paragraph of the story is I think indicative of what we're going to be seeing from MLB in their efforts to manage the "issue".

"In the meantime, documented steroid use at the big-league level has become almost infinitesimal, down from the 5-to-7 percent of players who tested positive in 2003. Last season, no player on the 25-man roster of the 30 teams tested positive. It was announced after the postseason that Mets reliever Guillermo Mota had tested positive and he will be suspended the requisite 50 games to open the 2007 season."

So MLB is going to be pounding home two messages on the steroid front. 1. George Mitchell will tell us as definitively as anyone can, what happened. 2. Testing is working, positive tests are on the decline ( see paragraph above ).

As I said before, the results of the 03 "anonymous" testing that revealed 5 - 7 % of players positive seems absurdly low.

For MLB.com to describe present day steroid use at the big league level as "infinitesimal" is ridiculous. Well at least I did learn how to spell infinitesimal" from this PR piece.

Any baseball fan who claims that they didn't know that steroid use was commonplace in MLB over the last 15 - 20 years is either naive or lying.

Steroids and amphetamines will remain in the game, it's the perception of what's happening that is being controlled, not drug use.

The question that I want answered is why so much talk about it the last few years? We all knew Big Mac & Sammy were juiced, nobody said anything. What has changed? Has the zeitgeist done a 180 in America? Or is the zeitgeist unchanged, is Barry Bonds symbolic of something that a lot of Americans dislike? Maybe I don't need Buster Olney, maybe I need Lewis Lapham. ( and my bong ).

From the basement March 22

Roger Noll, Economics Professor at Stanford, makes an interesting comment, and one that I wholeheartedly agree with, on the subject of MLB's approach to dealing with "PEDs". ( As I'm seeing them referenced more and more frequently. ) "Kuhn vigorously tried to cleanse baseball of hard drugs, which did not go down well with some owners when a valuable player was suspended. While his policies and actions may have been excessively harsh, at least they were clear and fairly implemented, unlike baseball's current policies and practices regarding performance-enhancing drugs." Management in pro sports use drug policies to punish players who step out of line. The story is not that the athletes take PED's, it's the politics of who gets tested when and if they are tipped as to when they will be tested and are the results of the test made public or ignored. What percentage of players in the NFL are juiced? What percentage of the same group test positive? To what do we attribute the discrepancy in the 2 numbers? I think the explanations run deeper than simply that the cheaters are ahead of the regulators in the doping labs.

From the basement March 30

Jose Canseco is being ridiculed in the press again, the latest, he's at the centre of some reality TV thing blah blah blah. Jose was always an easy target because he is gauche, conceited, huge and he never met a microphone he didn't like. But the guys who get blackballed out of the game, Canseco, Caminiti & Rocker, are the guys that can tell the truth. You can't tell the truth if you want to remain close to the game, be a spring training instructor, be a broadcaster, coach at any level, be invited for old timers day, get invited to the owners box, or even look former teammates in the eye again. Caminiti & Canseco told the truth about steroids after they knew they had burned their bridges. Rocker told the truth about the farce that is sensitivity training when Ozzie Guillen got his wrist slapped last season over an anti gay slur. Yeah they're all nut jobs but that doesn't mean they weren't telling the truth.

From the basement November 12

THE MITCHELL REPORT

When it is finally released - expected now this offseason - there will be saturation coverage in the baseball press. An anonymous team official has been quoted as saying that the report will be "salacious". No doubt it will. Between BALCO, Radomski, Grimsley, Signature etc., there is no shortage of names to be named. Buster Olney thinks dozens of players, current and retired, will be implicated.

This will be the latest overreported "athlete conduct" story. Fans have proven - we'll tell you differently if asked - that we don't care about "athlete conduct". I.E. Vick, Pac Man, Browne Saunders / Thomas / Dolan, Bonds / BALCO etc. The NFL has not suffered, Knicks season ticket renewals were very strong, 79 million of us ( well, not me ) walked through turnstiles this season at MLB games and the beat goes on....Only the writers and blog geeks care if this era is "tainted", if there should be asterisks, how it will impact HOF voting, yada. ( Yes I'm a blog geek but if I ever participate in an online argument about asterisks in baseball somebody please come to my basement and shoot me. ) The Mitchell Report will have zero impact on the popularity of MLB.

From the basement November 18

Mitchell will present overwhelming evidence that the game was dirty. Fans know that, no surprise to any of us. Mitchell will provide a platform, that MLB controls, from which MLB can manage the message. Mitchell is a company man don't forget, Blue Ribbon panel member, Red Sox Director and long rumored commissioner ( too old now ). Initially MLB will express surprise at the extent of PED usage detailed by Mitchell, followed by constant apologies from MLB for their negligence and "betrayal of the fans", followed by solemn, ironclad guarantees that this era is over, that testing is working & will be strengthened, it's all under control. And the fans will eat it up big time, because they're ready to, because cheating ( at least chemically ) isn't fun anymore, because they'll enjoy the contrived public self-flagellation, because it's what they want to hear, because they never really cared in the first place ( not enough to stay away ) because Bonds has been punished and that is right and is simple and makes sense.

From the basement December 22

2007-12-22T20:39:00.000-05:00

HOT STOVE BASHING

MLB revenue growth is outpacing salary growth. I REPEAT,....OUTPACING!!!

Jeff Passan . "In 1992...., the sport's gross revenues were $1.5 billion. Payrolls from that season added up to about $784 million, meaning 52.3 percent of baseball's money went back to the players. By 2001...the money going toward players had increased to 56.1 percent, even with revenues at $3.5 billion....by 2005, owners were taking the majority of the profit, giving 48.7 percent back to players. Today, the numbers are shocking. Baseball claims it will reap more than $6 billion in revenue this season...the sum of the 30 MLB teams' opening day payrolls for 2007 was approximately $2,478,970,000 – about 41.3 percent of the gross revenues."

Remember this the next time - believe me, it won't take long - you read that Team X has grossly overspent for Player Y in the most recent contract signed. I have read dozens - I'm guessing - of opinions in the baseball media this offseason, all deriding GMs and owners for their perceived overspending. The writers make their argument by comparing the newly signed deal with already existing deals in the market. The wrong question is being asked. We shouldn't be asking how this new deal stacks up against other current deals for similar players. Instead we need to ask how this deal will stack up in it's latter years. Joe Sheehan . "The baseball industry is growing revenues at such a pace that each new offseason is a market completely detached from the previous one....the industry is awash in money, so much so that there’s virtually no way to reconcile each offseason’s contracts with those that came before."

The Hot Stove bleating over excessive salaries last offseason - Burnett, Meche i.e. - was equally as loud and off target. Commissioner Selig even whacked his owners' pee pees last offseason - David Glass evidently was a prime target - over their excessive spending. ( I digress, but what happened to the sabre rattling over collusion that resulted from Selig's scolding and the controversial "slotting" recommendations from MLB for the Rule IV draft? )

I think - obviously a stoned guy in his basement isn't so credible - the increase in salaries is not being driven any longer by primarily the large market teams. The small market teams - unless they're using their welfare cheques to pay down team debt ( can geek darling Neal Huntington - he's saber tolerant - solve that problem? ) - are spending their revenue sharing / luxury tax / central fund windfall on veteran players. Did Andrew Zimbalist get it right in the last CBA? Did he adjust the marginal tax rates ( whatever that means ) such that there is more incentive for small markets to spend on payroll? When he writes about "the cliff", is this what he's talking about? Does anybody understand Andrew Zimbalist?

____________________________________________________________________

UPDATE FROM THE BASEMENT DECEMBER 23

Dr. Zimbalist sent me an email! I am truly astounded. He told me he couldn't post his comments here - Lisa Gray emailed me similarly recently - Blogger is one of the many things I don't understand. Dr. Zimbalist told me I could post the contents of his email and so here it is.

"someone sent me your comment about not understanding me. briefly, the new cba does not solve the incentive problem, it only ameliorates it. marginal tax rates (how much extra revenue sharing you pay for each dollar of additional revenue your team generates) have gone down for the low revenue teams from 48% to 31%, and more of the sharing is invariant to revenue. finally, the salary share in baseball revenue, properly reckoned, has stayed steady the last few years, though it is still considerably below where it was at the beginning of the decade."

I think I understand that. Nonetheless, I honestly don't understand much of what Dr. Zimbalist writes, which doesn't stop me from reading him. I've read 2 of his books, I read his semi regular column in SBJ ( unless it's about Title IX, which doesn't interest me, I think because I live in Canada ), his occassional commentary @ biz of baseball, Op-Ed pieces that I've surfed on to....

I don't understand a lot of it because I'm not smart enough. My comments in the original post re. Dr. Zimbalist were meant to poke fun at my "near smart", amateurish attempts to understand the baseball industry. Obviously there are people who understand Dr. Zimbalist. I suspect they're not stoned guys in a basement.

Thanks to Dr. Zimbalist for responding, I am so flattered. His comments will forever stand as the intellectual high point of this blog.

Now back to the regularly scheduled idiocy.
____________________________________________________________________

Why has the players' percentage of revenues declined? Is this a sign that my theory on more players signing for the " home town discount " - due to the enormity of salaries - is valid? Are they not maxing out their market value via free agency? I.E. Peavy? Or is it temporary and there will be a "correction" as the luxury tax threshold increases in the last years of the CBA and there is less disincentive for larger markets to boost payroll?

Ultimately our opinions on the value of player contracts being signed this offseason have to be tied to our expectations of industry growth. Will revenues continue to grow? If yes we have to assume that salaries will grow as well.

In no particular order, are these the "issues" ( hate that ) which will determine the future of MLB revenues?

How much additional growth is there in the RSN business? I do know the Giants are the latest club to "get in", they with FSN. Is anybody next? Few, many?

Is the stadium boom over? The Nats move in to their new publicly funded ATM this spring. After decades of threats & haggling, construction of the new Twins stadium is going ahead. This leaves MLB with only the Marlins - soon to be the Miami Marlins? - D Rays ( does this remind anybody else of the Big O? ) and the A's in outdated "stadia". ( Neil deMause says stadia ) Will the novelty of new / retro stadia wear off - see Camden Yards?

Ticket prices are going up - seems every time I surf on to biz of baseball there is another report about ticket price hikes somewhere. Guess ownership isn't that concerned about a Mitchell backlash. Will ticket prices continue to rise?

Real estate development. The A's, Rangers, Cards, D Rays are all part of larger real estate "plays" ( whatever that means). I wonder if this is the next battleground between the PA & the owners? ( I'm not convinced that it's PEDs ) How the revenues from these "ballpark villages" ( the D Rays scheme is different, developing the site of their current stadium after it's detonated is their "approach" ) are treated? Is it baseball income? Watch how the NFLPA reacts to Bob Kraft's "legacy" ( how shallow, your legacy is a big box shopping development ), Patriot Place. He'll tell you it has nothing to do with his Patriots football team - althought it's called Patriot Place and is located beside the football stadium. Also see AEG's L.A. Live development, hopefully more another time on this subject...

The continued growth of BAM? ( I dislike BAM, prefer MLBAM ) Is it maxed out? Will MLB take BAM public as has been often rumored? If yes will the players get their hands on none, some or a lot of that cash?

The 09 launch of the MLB channel. The most successful launch ever for a cable channel, reaching 40 million homes? "Steve Greenberg, with the bank Allen & Co. that's advising MLB, says the 40 million households means the channel is worth $1.2 billion — "Every owner woke up with his franchise worth $40 million more."

FSG. Will other clubs copy John Henry & Mike Dee? Does it generate enough revenue to matter?

Will the love affair between Corporate America & MLB ( all pro sports really ) continue? Is the market "softening" ( hate that ) for stadium naming rights? Casey Wasserman didn't get a naming rights deal done for the initial season in Nationals Park. Will MLB / pro sports continue to appeal to the affluent who fill luxury suites and club seats? I hope not but again I digress.

Gambling. Teams are allowing lotteries to use their "brand" ( ick ) on their tickets. I think they're allowing the lotteries to sell the tickets inside their stadiums also. Evidently, it works. Lottery tickets with team logos outsell those without. I think that's how it goes.

Is there money to be made in the minors? They too have record atendance and a bunch of relatively new stadiums. The Red Sox recently purchased an A Ball club. Teams are starting to see their affiliates as RSN programming ( they have to move them into their broadcast territory to accomplish that in some cases ) and Miles Wolff tells me that teams are "buying into their affliates".

Fantasy Sports. The most underreported sports story of the year is CDM Fantasy Sports vs MLB. I read an SBJ feature on internet metrics and didn't understand a lot of it. I did understand that a lot of people who should know think that internet metrics are worthless. Having said that, the Fantasy Sports Association estimates that there are 3.69 million fantasy baseball players ( is that a "unique user"? ) - as opposed to 11.68 million for fantasy football. Perhaps more importantly, these same folks report that over 50% of fantasy baseball & football participants earn in excess of $75,000 per year. Contrary to the long held stereotype of sports fans, many of us are fairly prosperous ( well, not me ). Looks like MLB and the MLBPA along with all the "ball & stick" leagues will miss out on the fantasy sports cash cow.

World Series TV ratings suck relative to prior years but the value of it to advertisers has never been greater. Will pro sports continue to deliver the mass audience? Or will we all be doing what I'm doing here?

How large an impact will the new Yankee Stadium & Citi Field have on the industry?

Secondary ticketing. So much being written about this and it is really, really important. Unfortunately I don't understand a lot of it. I did read that teams might adapt the same model to ticket pricing that is used in the pricing of airline tickets. I don't know if that means that the stadiums will be overbooked and the food will be shitty but I think there is a mountain of cash to be made.

What WILL NOT have an impact on MLB revenues - The Mitchell Report.

I would wager that in a handful of years the contracts of Silva, Rowand, Hunter, Linebrink et al won't look so bad.

MORE HOT STOVE BASHING

The baseball media has never been larger. During Hot Stove season you can read rumors and speculation about upcoming signings and trades ad nauseam. I would think given the volume of speculation, that the Hot Stove League would have to be right about some stuff. After all, it's a finite subject. I got to the point where I concluded that I had read a rumor about every player on every 25 man roster and all of this offseason's FA's. Some of this crap has to stick to the wall, doesn't it? Evidently not. I think the baseball media and the bloggers - so far - have been wrong about most everything this offseason. I guess randomness in baseball applies not only to the game on the field but to punditry as well.

Some of what the Hot Stove got wrong so far this winter.

A Rod - Once Boras announced that A Rod was opting out the reaction was instant and near unanimous. A Rod was done as a Yankee. I think this stems from the unprecedented degree of competition in the media. Writers are pressured to form opinions almost instantly. Many wrote that in retrospect A Rod in the Bronx was the most viable option all along.

Managerial - Baker, Russell & Torre. Perhaps not Torre so much but Baker surprised all and well, nobody cares about Russell.

This would be the offseason of " the deal " due to the relatively small number of FA's this offseason. Save for Cabrera / Willis it hasn't been, has it?

Trades - Renteria, Cabrera / Willis, Lidge, Cabrera / Garland, Young / Garza, Milledge ( well not to DC ).

FA destinations. Cordero, Eckstein, Hunter, Linebrink, Rowand,

Johan Santana. Please, everybody stop it. Hasn't every player in the Angels', Yanks' & Red Sox' organizations been rumored as going to Minnesota at some point? I'm not saying he won't be dealt but the amount of conjecture devoted to it is inane.

From the basement December 19

2007-12-19T17:12:00.000-05:00

Q & A with Miles Wolff

Miles Wolff's experiences and accomplishments in professional baseball are long and varied. He is most recognized for starting Independent pro baseball in 1993 with the formation of the Northern League. Mr. Wolff was also the owner & publisher of Baseball America for 18 years. Mr. Wolff has owned professional baseball teams in Durham, N.C., Butte, Mont., Asheville, N.C., Utica, N.Y., and Pulaski, Va. Mr. Wolff currently owns franchises in Quebec City and Burlington N.C. Mr. Wolff is currently commissioner of both the American Association & CanAm leagues and a former commissioner of both the Northeast & Central Leagues. Mr. Wolff has also served as play by play man for one season and worked as a minor league GM in different cities. Mr. Wolff is also a former owner of a professional minor league hockey team.

Mr. Wolff has written two books, Season of the Owl (1980), a novel about minor league baseball, and Lunch at the 5 & 10 (1970), an account of the 1960 Greensboro sit-ins by black students at the Woolworth's eatery. He is also the co-editor of the Encyclopedia of Minor League Baseball (1997).

Mr. Wolff's most recent baseball endeavor is launching a CanAm League franchise in my hometown Ottawa. The as yet unnamed franchise debuts May 22, 2008 vs. the New Jersey Jackals.

Thank you Mr. Wolff for doing this Q & A with A Baseball Geek and best of luck with your efforts in Ottawa.

You have stated that the CanAm League strongly desires a franchise in Montreal. Obviously with franchises presently in Quebec City & Ottawa this makes a lot of sense. How are your efforts progressing in Montreal? Is there a suitable baseball facility in the Montreal area? I have read that there is a good baseball stadium in Trois Rivieres, do you see this city as a potential CanAm site as well?

There currently is no suitable baseball facility in Montreal. However, two groups are working on building a stadium and both are optimistic that something could happen for 2009. One group is working with a shopping development out in Mirabel and the other group is looking at a site in either Longueuil or Verdun. Trois Rivieres has a good baseball stadium, but the market is probably not big enough.

There has been speculation that Ottawa resident Tim Leiper will be named manager here. What's the latest on Leiper's status with the Pirates? He managed the Bucs' AA squad in Altoona last season but there have been wholesale changes in their organization this offseason. Is Leiper your first choice at this point and when does he expect his future with the Pirates to be clarified?

Leiper has a two year contract with Pittsburgh and is probably not available. He would be our choice if he did become available.

How important to the long term viability of Ottawa as home to professional baseball is a shared tenancy agreement with Baseball Canada?

I'm not sure it is question of long-term viability as much as simply that the stadium should be the home for Baseball Canada. Their offices are in Ottawa, there is no home park for the national teams, and they are an organization that is well run. The games or tournaments that could be held there would not make a huge financial change in the operating costs, but the visability for baseball in the region would be very important.

Are the CanAm umpires employed and supervised at the league level or are the individual teams responsible for umpiring in their parks? ( Reportedly during the 2006 Minor League Baseball umpire strike, the level of discontent with the replacement umpires in the IL was greatest in Ottawa. )

The Can-Am League is responsible for hiring and supplying umpires.

I've read varying accounts as to who(m) started publishing Baseball America, you or Canadian Alan ( sic ) Simpson. Can you clarify the relationship between yourself and Mr. Simpson in the early years of BA?

Allan Simpson founded Baseball America as The All America Baseball News. It was located in British Columbia but he was having difficulty with U.S. postal regulations and other problems being located outside of the U.S. We thought it was a good publication, and Allan agreed to sell it to us if we could get him a visa and move it to North Carolina. We bought it in 1981, got his visa, and changed the name to Baseball America. Allan remained editor until it was sold when I bought the Quebec club in 1999.

Toronto & Vancouver are the 2 cities in Canada that are home to affiliated baseball. Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg, Ottawa & Quebec City are home to independent league baseball. Can you explain the diminished number of affilated teams operating in Canada?

Weather is probably the biggest factor with full season clubs starting in early April. Increased difficulties in crossing the border has also made some MLB clubs shy away from Canadian affiliates.

Did you follow the fortunes of the independent Canadian Baseball League that folded during it's inaugural season of 2003? Any thoughts as to why it folded so quickly?

It was poorly run with individuals that had little knowledge of the business aspects of minor league baseball.

I note a trend in the management and ownership of minor league baseball teams - affiliated and independent - moving away from local entrepeneurs to corporate models. I'm speaking of Mandaly Baseball Properties, Fenway Sports Group, The Goldklang Group ( who are involved in the CanAm League ) and the Ripken Baseball Group. Why are we seeing this change and do you see it expanding? Do you see it as a model that could work in Ottawa?

There have always been groups that have tried to run multiple minor league clubs. Every city is different, so I am not sure it is something we will see more of. I don't think it is a model that would work in Ottawa.

I am certain that you know Bill Murray through his interests in independent leagues ( including the CanAm Brockton club ). Mr. Murray is listed on the aforementioned The Goldklang Group as "Co-Owner, Director of Fun". Tell us something about Bill Murray that might surprise us. Also, is Mr. Murray responsible for the rumored interests of his former collaborators Lorne Michaels and Dan Aykroyd in ownership of the Ottawa CanAm franchise?

Bill Murray is friends with several of the people that run independent teams. He has been to league meetings and has made valuable contributions to the discussions in these meetings. At the very first game in Brockton during a rain delay he led a high school band marching around the field. He is not responsible for the interest of Lorne Michaels in Ottawa. Michaels is interested because he is Canadian and likes baseball.

According to Baseball Amercia "roughly 100 players" are signed to affiliated ball every season from the 60 + independent League teams. Bob Wirz wrote recently that, "Numerous organizations covet prime Indy talent, with Milwaukee, Toronto and the Padres among the others most active of late." Has there been an increase in the past 5 - 10 years in the number of Indy players "graduating" to affiliated baseball? If yes, why is affiliated ball being more aggressive in signing players out of indy leagues?

There has been an increase in the signing of independent players by MLB teams. The reason for the increase is the success of independent players in affiliated baseball and at the major league level.

Professional baseball in North America continues to set attendance records in both the major and minor leagues ( including the 8 million plus who attended independent league games last season ). Sports Business Journal reported earlier this year that attendance at independent league games has increased 49% from 5 years ago. "Many of those fans will visit a new or extensively renovated stadium, as nearly two-thirds of the clubs have combined to spend more than half a billion dollars on such projects since 1998." I believe that the building boom of new baseball stadiums in the US is the primary factor contributing to record attendance at all levels of professional baseball. To what do you attribute the record attendance at all levels?

I think you are correct. The new facilities may be the most important reason for the growth in attendance. Also, teams have better management. The growth of sports administration programs across North America has given baseball a supply of talented young people that want to be in business operations.

You are part of both Indy and affiliated professional baseball. The PDA agreement expires next year. Subsequent to the last expiration of the PDA in 06 there were a lot of changes in affiliations - at least in AAA. Do you expect more of the same next year? If yes, why?

I think there will probably be less changes in affiliations. Teams are signing longer working agreements and now major league teams are buying into their affiliates which should mean more stability.

Are relationships between affiliated and independent minor league baseball not good? Bob Wirz recently wrote, "The Winter Meetings continued to be busy for many Independent Baseball people, even without open arms from the brass running the affiliated minors." Baseball America reported from the Winter Meetings that "...apparently MILB’s board of trustees has voted to ban independent league teams from attending the sport’s annual promotional seminar." And, "We feel that when get together with members it should be with (MILB) members only," Eastern League president Joe McEacharn said. "They are not part of us. Why should we let them hear our best and brightest speak at the promotional seminar." Are relations strained, if yes, why?

Yes, relations are strained or almost non-existent. Before independent baseball, the minor leagues had a monopoly. Now, there are options for cities, and some minor league operators don't like this. Plus, there seems to be an increased level of arrogance among some minor league owners. Those of us who have been in the game awhile don't believe it is warranted.

From the basement December 10

2007-12-10T01:57:00.000-05:00

Saturday, late afternoon, after family tobogganing, I went to the basement - because that's what married fathers do - and went online. I finally caught up on my baseball reading - interrupted last week by shovelling 40 cm of snow off various parts of our estate, 1 PD day & parent / teacher interviews - and was about to start writing a post when I surfed on to my favorite baseball blog where I found a link to a thread @ BTF - Baseball Think Factory. And down the internet baseball geek rabbit hole I went for the first time. Man, what a revelation. And not an entirely positive one.

I'm late to baseball on the internet. Probably because of age, born in 62. I think I've only been wired ( internet, not intoxicated ) a handful of years. I was enthralled instantly. The vast amounts of baseball geek information that I had access to. Even routine stuff like reading the boxscores became more fun. All the stats - minor, major, career - scouting reports etc. a few irresistable clicks away. What an improvement from the days of going to specialty magazine shops to find a Baseball America or The Sporting News to know how top prospects were performing or who that new Gonzalez back up infielder in KC is or that new Smith guy in the Padres' bullpen, is he a LH or RH? or...it's endless. Hardcore geek stuff like Maury Brown, Rob Neyer, Keith Law, THT, BP...some of it I didn't even know existed. Baseball geek crack available 24 / 7. Love it.

BASEBALL GEEK CLEANSING 2.0

I thought I'd become part of baseball 2.0. My own blog, commenting on other blogs, some email exchanges with other bloggers and even a few legitimate baseball writers. But after Saturday nite I realize that I've only been on the perimeter of 2.0 baseball conversation. I'm a baseball charlatan in comparison to these folk @ BTF. I think I should rename this blog, " I thought I was a baseball geek." To rip off High Fidelity, I'll be one of the Dark Ages baseball fans executed during the BTF baseball revolution.

Typically I comment @ Shysterball, Out of Left Field & until recently a AAA blog for our former local team. There are different reasons I comment regularly @ these blogs but my experience at all three is similar. Similar in that the tone of the bloggers and posters? commentors? ( I learned Saturday nite that people can be posters, I'd been unaware ) is most often polite, respectful and relatively light hearted. Hey, it's only sports. Similar in that a lot of posts generate no comments. When there are comments, a handful is typical, more than a handful is a lot and more than 10 is Super Bowl type #'s. Well, Saturday evening I posted the 275th comment on a thread started less than 24 hours prior and within 2hrs 15 minutes - and 5 comments, 1 an apology to a few of the BTF true believers - of having "joined the conversation" someone told me to STFU. I had to look up the acronym, I hadn't a clue what it meant.

I suspect that my BTF experience is more representative of the typical 2.0 conversation, not only 2.0 baseball. I think I have to pack up my bong, hunt down Andrew Keen, lay on a couch and talk to him about all of this until I make some sense of it.

I had never paid more than a passing glance to BTF but I understand why I was so attracted to the thread. I was astounded to see that writers whose work I respect and enjoy - and often refer to here - were participating in this "conversation" and golly I could too! Neat! Cool! This is the 2.0 baseball utopia! Me, Maury Brown, Keith Law, Rob Neyer, Tracy Ringolsby ( until post # 100 when he, using a pseudonym, dropped out ) Dayn Perry ( who I was unaware of prior ), Craig Calcaterra and John Brattain ( I think ) all talking about baseball. VALIDATION! I was surprised ( naive ) that these "industry" people engage in these web debates / chats. I thought they'd be sick of it after a day of reading and researching and writing but I was wrong, they were all there. And not all the "posters" were nasty and insulting. Some of the "postings" were the most insightful and intelligent I have read. And some of it was salacious, Law & Neyer openly feuding with BBWAA member Ringolsby.

A day later I remained stunned. Stunned that approx 48 hours after the thread started, 400 comments had been submitted on the subject - and derivations on the subject - of whether Rob Neyer and Keith Law should have been admitted to the BBWAA earlier that week. Stunned at the levels of anger ( I suspect a lot of it contrived? is that better? ) and vitriol and web chauvinism directed toward the BBWAA. ( And I've never been interested in what the BBWAA does. I'm only aware of Awards & HOF elections via baseball osmosis ) Evidently this is the norm in the BTF world, in both quantity and tenor of comments. What is it about the internet? Why is it that behind our keyboards, sitting in our basements, cubicles, offices, dens, living rooms, we become so confrontational and rude? Commentary directed to and by a community using false names who we'll likely never meet? What is that? Everybody wants to be the smartest guy in the chat room. Everybody wants to win, to be right. I've heard that having to be right is aggressive in and of itself. Anger is a staple of the internet. We're mad as hell and....we're addicted to it.

I wrote last post here that this is the age of 2.0 narcissism. Blogging is narcissistic. Even the reactions to the blogs are narcissistic. IMO, IMO, IMO ( I only recently learned this acronym and I'm already sick of it. I think it is redundant. I assume you are stating your opinion unless you state otherwise, you don't have to tell me ) The BTF thread dwarfs the posting that spawned it. What does it mean that a posting of several paragraphs illicits 400 + comments? Are we interested in the opinion at the site or are we interested in our responses to it? Is it about the reactions to the responses? What's left to be said after the first 50 or 100 comments? If you are the 350th comment, have you even read the original posting? or the 50th comment? Does that matter?

I tried to point out to the BTF zealots that maybe by comment # 275 - my initial posting - wasn't this all ridiculous? I was quickly informed that there was likely something wrong with me, the BTF crowd are all fine. No, threads of 100's - one evidently exceeded 1,000 - are not uncommon @ BTF and it is completely reasonable that they devote this much attention to the ways of the BBWAA. I was cowed and embarrassed, I wanted to fit in and I even apologized. But a few days later, I am right. They have collectively gone off the 2.0 baseball deep end. Threads of hundreds of comments is crazy, incomprehensible and jesus christ I'm a geek ( or I thought I was ) but it's the BBWAA!

For the most part, the 400 or so comments are a collective screed against the BBWAA - who in the estimation of the BTF folk represent the intellectually inferior Dark Ages writers - and an affirmation that the only baseball opinion worth reading is written by the math literate, web based, progressive BTF types. It was a reminder that the Moneyball debate is still alive. The debate is all one sided, the stat analysis guys won, but they enjoy reinforcing their superiority. Many GM's are of this school, most if not all teams employ consultants from this community and the best team is owned by one of their own. But old school newspaper BBWAA member Ringolsby challenged them on their turf and the BTF crowd were horny to have the old Moneyball argument all over again.

This thread is also the latest instalment in the petty, blogger / internet vs MSM debate. I read more and more about this feud. Initially it was confined to the virtually unread blogs ( this one is unread but not anti big baseball media ) where it is common to find this unfounded, adolescent, irrelevant, anti "the man" attitude. The MSM don't get "it". They've been co-opted by "the man". We're bloggers, we're passionate, we're real. Recently though I see an increase in big media writers / higher profile bloggers participating in this debate. I think the sniping from the blogosphere is irritating the big media writers. The 2 most talked about instances are Stephen A. Smith's criticisms of bloggers and the infamous Bill Conlin / Crashburn alley pissing match - made famous by Conlin's bizarre and racist remark; “The only positive thing I can think of about Hitler’s time on earth — I’m sure he would have eliminated all bloggers.” This BTF pissing match between Ringolsby - the MSM newspaper guy - and most everybody else in the "conversation" is the same feud. We're the progressive web people, you're a dumb newspaper reporter. There is much boasting in the 400 or so comments that these folks ignore the MSM when it comes to baseball. Odd that they're so pissed about what the BBWAA is doing though.

So what the hell is going on? What's changed? Maybe nothing. Maybe I just fell into an internet conversation with a bunch of other middle aged, middle class, caucasian baseball geeks ( I bet the BTF crowd overwhelmingly fit this description, birds of a feather... ) who need to get out of their or their parents' basements and GET A LIFE! But it is obvious and well chronicled that there is a change. General interest newspapers, which I was raised on and adore, are dying. Instead we have the age of obsession ( one of the BTFers told me I use that word too casually, 400 + comments about the BBWAA isn't obsessive evidently, I guess it's enthusiastic ) and special interest. Talk to your community of 1 ( yourself ) or 5 or 10 or....to the exclusion of all else. You can, easily. But should you, should I?

It's this age of audience fragmentation, of blogs and Facebook and My Space ( one word?) that helps make pro sports more valuable - to broadcasters and advertisers and perhaps to us as a whole - than ever. Sports is one of the last mass shared experiences.

More likely, I'm just a curmudgeonly, middle aged, narcissist struggling to fit into a medium that I'll never understand. Maybe the insults and anger in the "conversations" are a diversion - a form of joking and riffing - that I misunderstand. Maybe it's a silly game of text one upmanship that I'm too thin skinned ( I am, I wish I wasn't ) to enjoy.

Maybe I need May 22 to come so I can drive the 10 minutes to the ball park and sit outside and watch a baseball game.

From the basement December 01

2007-12-01T22:34:00.000-05:00

I've read that blogging is about the personal and media is corporate. Or somethin like that. Maybe Will Leitch could tell me, after all this medium belongs to his generation not mine, plus he's smarter than me. But I think I believe in that slogan - today I do - and that is why I have blogged in the past about AAA in my hometown. Somebody asked me why I blogged about AAA ( aka "The Lynx" until it moved at seasons end ), the inference being that there are subjects baseball more interesting than minor league ball in Ottawa. The person who asked me wasn't being snide or critical and they made a legitimate point. If I want baseball fans to read my blog shouldn't I blog about subjects baseball with a broader appeal? Point well taken but this blog is ultimately about me - again this is the 2.0 age of narcissism - and it's a big deal to me that independent ball is coming to town.

CanAm LEAGUE COMES TO OTTAWA

I'm thrilled. It was announced November 28 that May 22, 08 is Opening Day. Ottawa is officially bush league. The Canadian American Association of Professional Baseball ( CanAm League ) has reached an agreement with our city government to lease the baseball stadium for the 08 & 09 seasons.

I say bush league because that is how the independent leagues are perceived by most fans. I've never seen indy ball but I think the bush league perception is a bit harsh. I fully expect the ball to be well played and entertaining. According to Baseball Amercia "roughly 100 players" are signed to affiliated ball every season from the 60 + independent League teams. 8 million + fans attended independent league games this past season. For 15 seasons I watched many, many IL players with independent league experience. Amongst last season's Lynx with indy ball backgrounds were, Gary Burnham ( team leader in HR & RBI's ), Kane Davis & Chris Coste ( both who also played with the Phillies last season ), Jim Rushford and Pedro Swann. Edwar Ramirez began last season in the independent United League and was a member of the New York Yankees before seasons end. Joe Thatcher made his MLB debut last season with the Padre's, logging experience in the independent Frontier League in both the 04 & 05 seasons. A quick scan of CanAm League rosters spits up former big leaguers, Joel Bennett, Tim Bausher ( he was called up by the Red Sox but never played before being returned to AAA ), Rich "El Guapo" Garces - he pitched in the bigs in 10 different seasons, 341 1/3 IP / 296 K - and there are likely many more that I overlooked. Ok, I would prefer we remain a AAA city but CanAm ball has got to be a whole lot better than no pro ball at all. If nothing else, it gets me out of the basement.

The bush leagues. This is the present and the foreseeable future of professional baseball in Canada. Outside of Toronto only Vancouver ( formerly a AAA city ) has an affiliated team. The Vancouver Canadians play in the Short Season Northwest League. The other former AAA cities, Calgary, Edmonton and Ottawa are all now home to indy leagues. Winnipeg and Quebec City are indy cities as well.

Is indy ball in Canada to stay? Evidence abounds that we are losing interest in baseball as a spectator sport. The Expos died, TV ratings for the Jays are poor outside the GTA, the aforementioned departure of AAA from Vancouver, Edmonton, Calgary and Ottawa, London is a former AA city, Medicine Hat & St. Catherines were once homes to affiliated ball... The independent CBL, despite it's nationalist appeal ( well, I guess ultimately there was no nationalist appeal ) folded mid season in it's inaugural year of 2003. Four clubs averaged fewer than 300 fans per game. I'm in the camp who believe that Indy ball is most viable in non NHL cities. The Goldeyes in Winnipeg are an enormous success. They lead all of independent ball in attendance in 07 with an average of 6,542 and are consistently amongst the leaders in all of minor league ball. Les Capitales de Québec are also successful, finishing 2nd last season in CanAm League attendance with an averge of 3,300 per game. I don't believe it's coincidence that these two former NHL cities enthusiastically support indy ball. Not to be snobbish ( hey, I was raised in Madoc ) but there isn't a lot of competition for the attention of sports fans, or even non sports fans, in these cities. Vancouver was 3rd in Northwest League attendance @ 3418 but in a market with a metropolitan population of 2 million +. The true comparisons for Ottawa as an indy ball market are in Calgary and Edmonton. Both are home to the NHL and are of similar size to Ottawa-Gatineau ( approx. metropolitan populations of 1 million ). Calgary @ 1551 and Edmonton @ 1792 were last & 2nd last in Northern League attendance in 07. By comparison Gary had the next worst attendance @ 3616 per game. Both Calgary and Edmonton have since moved to the independent Golden Baseball League .

Will indy ball survive in Ottawa? The optimists argue that AAA in Canada suffered from having to play in terrible April and early May weather. Valid point, most if not every opening day in Ottawa there was snow somewhere and you wore a toque & mitts. The optimists argue that the shorter CanAm season - Opening Day May 22 - and better weather is a significant advantage. As Neate Sager points out, Lynx attendance post June 1st typically averaged 2,000 +. Average CanAm League attendance is approximately 2200 per. Sounds good.

Will the same 2,000 of us who supported AAA support CanAm? Attendance in Edmonton has dropped dramatically post AAA. In 04, Edmonton's last season in the PCL, they averaged approx 3500 per game. Last season that had dropped to 1800 for indy ball. Similarly, Calgary averaged approx. 2600 per game in their last PCL season in 02. Last season that had dropped to 1500 for indy ball.

CanAm supporters also trumpet the local appeal - the team will have players from the region - Mike Kusiewicz being the first name mentioned. ( Will Yan Lachapelle get a call? Marc Charbonneau?) As mentioned, the CBL - which mandated a minimum # of Canadians on each club - flopped. Jeremy Ware is a Canadian and former Lynx player, I don't think anybody knew who he was when he played here.

The early spin also promotes indy ball as fielding teams who are committed to winning as opposed to affiliated teams where the focus in not necessarily on winning but serving as a taxi squad ( AAA ) or developmental program for their MLB masters. Mike Veeck was quoted in SBJ earlier this year, "Affiliated ball is like running a movie theater. You provide the popcorn and the building and the ambience; the parent team provides the team. You can watch 13 games and see that your shortstop can't play, but in affiliated ball, your job is to keep and develop that shortstop. In independent baseball, that shortstop is gone. In independent, you're playing to win - to win for your respective town."

The CanAm is also promoting a stronger connection between fan and player. There is more roster stability in independent leagues, they are not the revolving door of AAA. Fans get to know players who return for multiple season. The "bush league appeal" of the Indy player is also being highlighted. The shitty pay, the long bus rides, the small crowds....these guys are in it for the "love of the game". ( I don't adhere to that. Jocks are jocks. They like to work out, play sports, hang out with the guys, party, fight and chase pussy. That's why a lot of "greedy" former big leaguers finish their careers in Indy, it beats being home with the wife and kids ).

Regional rivalries are also being pushed although I don't think many of us possess the required antipathy towards Quebec City. CanAm Commissioner - and the inventor of indy ball, baseball legend - Miles Wolff frequently expresses his desire to soon place a team in Montreal but as recently as 03 the aforementioned CBL couldn't find a suitable facility in the Montreal area. ( Welcome to indy, there was a Montreal franchise that actually played games but it never played a game in Montreal ).

It's the stadium stupid. I've written on this blog before that the principal factor in the unprecedented popularity of baseball in the US - record attendance at all levels, MLB and Minors ( both affiliated and independent ) - is the construction of new / retro style stadia across the US. SBJ tells us that attendance at independent league games has increased 49% from 5 years ago. "Many of those fans will visit a new or extensively renovated stadium, as nearly two-thirds of the clubs have combined to spend more than half a billion dollars on such projects since 1998." While the baseball facility in Ottawa is fine - AAA calibre - it does lack the retro / W.P. Kinsella esthetic that is so popular in the US. Views of a Canadian Tire parking lot and highway 417 doesn't give you that Iowa corn field vibe - no matter how good your drugs are.

Will Ottawans turn up their noses at the CanAm league? The CanAm is not one of the elite independent leagues. The best independent league is the Atlantic League which features many big league veterans including Carl Everett and Junior Spivey this past season. The Northern League has historically been a very strong indy league as well. Most won't realize, hell most never realized how good AAA ball was even after 15 seasons.

Who owns the Ottawa CanAm franchise? The league owns the franchise but what does that mean? Is Miles Wolff writing the cheques himself or are the other CanAm owners his partners? Mr. Wolff has expressed that he wants local ownership - not a surprise - but how long is he willing to wait? Mr. Wolff has speculated that potential owners could be Ottawa native Dan Aykroyd, Lorne Michaels or Henry Champ. ( There is a history of celebrities with interests in indy ball, most famously Bill Murray ) Are the optics bad in having your #1 rival - Quebec City - owned by the same guy who owns your team? Not necessarily, this is a model that works in some minor leagues. I.E. Didn't former Ottawa CFL owner Horn Chen own ALL the CHL franchises once upon a time?

If there is a long term future for indy ball in Ottawa we best be prepared for change. Indy ball is very unstable compared to affiliated ball, leagues & franchise come and go frequently. Some leagues, one being the CanAm, have fielded "road" teams in order to have the requisite even number of clubs necessary for scheduling. SBJ points out that over the 15 year existence of indy ball, "A total of 23 independent leagues have fielded clubs in 163 different markets over those years. Forty clubs folded after just one season of play, and more than a dozen didn't even make it that long." J.J. Cooper @ BA writes, "In indy ball every offseason seems to be a matter of leagues replacing weak franchises with potentially stronger ones in a perennial survival of the fittest."

What is the future of the stadium? In less than 2 years the CanAm lease with the city will expire. The arrival of the CanAm franchise resolves in the short term a problem for the city - they own a baseball stadium but had no team to play in it. But what happens after the end of the 09 season? The rent of $108,000 per year is peanuts - almost literally - to the 4th largest city in the country. Having Baseball Canada move their operation into the stadium would help some but don't all signs point toward the selling and development of the stadium? There has been speculation that it will be transformed into a domed soccer / concert facility but nobody including me takes it seriously. Governments build facilities for pro sports because it is popular with a certain segment of the population, namely sports fans. I'm an example. I've lived here for 27 years and the only time I've called my councillor was to express my support for the construction of the baseball stadium. It was entirely selfish, I have long believed that public contributions to stadium construction for the benefit of private owners is bad government but I really, really like baseball. But the days are gone forever when Ottawa set the IL attendance record and if only 2,000 or fewer of us are regularly attending will the political will exist to maintain the stadium? Can city council justify it? Will the lure of the value of the land and the development charges and property taxes be too enticing to pass up?

I hope I'm wrong but the reprieve for professional baseball in town will be short lived.

From the basement November 24

2007-11-24T19:47:00.000-05:00

BARRY BONDS

IS HE FINISHED?

My initial reaction to the indictment - along with everybody - was that it ended his career. I'm having 2nd thoughts......

For starters, after reading this very informative piece by federal criminal defense attorney Keith Scherer, I'm convinced that if Bonds does go to jail it won't be until after the 08 season is completed. Says Mr. Scherer, "Unless Bonds takes a deal, his case won’t go to trial before the end of the 2008 season. It can take several months—often more than a year—to bring a relatively simple case to trial in federal criminal court. Even when both parties expect that the case will eventually end in a plea, it can take that long to get to it."

Also we assume that Bonds won't want to play. He won't want the hassle. He broke Aaron's record ( ok, he doesn't have 3,000 ). He should be rich ( what's he made? $180 million? How much has he kept?...). So, he'll walk away. But Bonds has put up with the scorn and the media circus for many years, perhaps it would just be more of the same for him. The baseball writers have portrayed him for his entire career as being oblivious to all that goes on around him. Wouldn't it be like Bonds to play one more season if for no other reason than to say "fuck you" to everybody in the game?

Maybe more importantly, as I and many others have speculated, nobody will employ him. I wonder if Billy Beane is the exception? ( Obviously he needs Lewis Wolff's approval ). The Hot Stove League, pre indictment, had Bonds moving across the bay for 08. Still plausible? Yes. Bonds remains a GREAT offensive player. Plus Beane knows now that he can get him really, really cheap because nobody will bid against the A's. ( Again, this assumes Bonds wants to play ) And Beane might be the one GM who wouldn't be dissuaded by the media circus. Beane loves the limelight and fancies himself unconventional. ( Well, from what I can glean from reading about him ) Beane may be the only man in MLB with an ego comparable to Bonds'.

IS BONDS GOING TO JAIL?

The popular wisdom is that Bonds is not going to jail. The supporting arguments are typically:

Indictments are easily obtainable ( the ham sandwich argument ).

The case against Bonds is weak, that's why it took 4 years for an indictment.

The indictment is a face saving move by the prosecutors.

Even without a conviction Bonds is further discredited.

Mr. Scherer thinks contrary. "The U.S. Attorney’s office isn’t perfect, and federal prosecutors lose on occasion, but they never bring a weak case to trial. This is especially true in a celebrity case like this one, one that is being overseen by the highest levels of authority. A loss in the Bonds case would be a career killer, and the prosecution wouldn’t risk taking this case to trial if it was as weak his Michael Rains says." ( Rains is one of Bonds' lawyers. )

BONDS - AN OLIVER STONE FILM

Mr. Scherer doesn't share the conspiracy theorists ( I'm in that camp ) opinion that Bonds was the ultimate target in the BALCO investigation. "The U.S. Attorney’s office doesn’t offer immunity to the target of an investigation." I am in no way qualified to disagree with a US federal criminal defense attorney on this point but what the hell, this is the 2.0 age of amateurism & narcissism. I agree with Diesel . "The crime Bonds is being pilloried for today is lying to a grand jury, when the opportunity for "immunity" was presented should he offer any testimony that would be self-incriminating. But, considering that what he said that day was going to become public knowledge, he was really faced with a witch's "water test": If he confessed to a crime everyone had already assumed him guilty of, then he would be finished. If he maintained his innocence — honestly or not — then he would face the punishment nonetheless."

Recent recommended reading for Bonds conspiracy theorists: This NY Times piece on the IRS special agent who has gathered key evidence against Bonds - amongst other steroid offenders - isn't a conspiracy rant but it does raise questions about the investiagators' ethics and motives. Jemele Hill , is lockstep with me on all things Bonds including conspiracy theory and race.

WHY DO THE YANKEES SPEND SO MUCH?

There has been plenty of speculation that the Yankees had no serious competition in the free agent market for A Rod and consequently they could have signed him for much less than the $275 - $300 million that they've agreed to. As well, Rivera @ $45 million for 3 years and Posada @ $52 million for 4 years, has raised eyebrows particulary in light of the advanced age of the players ( 38 & 36 respectively ).

There is plenty of opinion that the Yanks have grossly overpaid for all 3 players. Why? The easy answer is that they generate so much more revenue than anybody else. There are other opinions however and the best place to look is always the Sports Economist.

On November 15 one of the sports economists wrote about the "Yankee premium", i.e. why do they overpay? The conversation that followed the blog posting is very interesting, some ( I've edited ) of it is below. ( note my intellectually lame contribution ).

I understand the Yankee premium. What I don't understand is why the Yankees continue to pay it. So many times it seems from the outside that they are outbidding themselves. I don't see why they insist on a $200 mil payroll when $150 would get them the same results and add $50 mil to the bottom line. A-Rod is just the latest example. Since A-Rod is quickly signing the $30 mil per year deal, my guess is that no one was willing to match the $25 mil he was currently getting (for 10 years).

James Roane 11.16.07 - 4:38 pm #
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Hi Brian. Thanks for the post.

I've always wondered if this isn't the intersection between MRP theory and superstar effects (also as I am able to read it, part of MRP).

MRP = MP x MR. The arguments about similar players stats are all about MP. But for superstars it is the MR that matters.

And if Yankee fans fit the "superstar" idea, then we will not find an explanation in analysis of MP.

So... if Yankee fans simply want to see "the best" (superstars) and the technology is there to give it to them at the gate and on TV (and it is), then marginal talent differences can generate very large pay differences.

Perhaps we can get at this question using empirical models developed around superstar theory.

Rodney Fort Homepage 11.19.07 - 9:57 am #
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Pardon my ignorance but what are MP & MR? I suspect M denotes marginal?

Peter Toms Homepage 11.19.07 - 11:57 am #
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Sorry Peter.
MRP = marginal revenue product.

MP = marginal product (typically, contribution to winning or some such).

MR = marginal revenue earned from that marginal contribution.

Rodney Fort Homepage 11.19.07 - 5:14 pm #
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Hi Rod

I agree that this is largely about the MR rather than the MP. The MR in question here relates to two things: the MR of a win, and the MR of everything else, e.g. star quality, personality etc. Mostly we focus on the the MR of a win, and we think the Yankees will pay a lot more for a win than anyone else, since the revenue potential is large, but fans in the Big Apple have plenty of other entertainment opportunities if the Yankees start losing.

stef szymanski 11.20.07 - 6:36 am #

So, if I "get it" and I'm never certain that I "get" what the economists think, the Yankees overpay because their superstars / celebrities are more valuable in the NYC market than elsewhere. ( Rivera & Posada for example are not better baseball players in a different market but they are bigger superstars / celebrities in NYC than in any other market. )

Is this the same point that SBJ made in a recent feature on "team brands"? "You can be the Spurs and own San Antonio. Or you can be the Yankees and share New York....Walk the streets of New York, stopping fans along the way, and you will find you share of Yankees fans. But you'll also find Mets fans who despise them. You'll find Giants fans, but also Jets fans who decry them. The Yankees ranked first in New York, but the Mets were a close second. The Giants were third and the Jets were an eyelash behind them in fourth. Then came.....You get to play to vast audiences in the nation's four biggest markets. But you also have to play over lots of noise."

George Steinbrenner understood this, that baseball is show biz, superstars are essential, baseball is just baseball. He bought the Yankees for $8.7 million in 1973 and remade them into THE YANKEES, paying big dollars for the likes of Hunter and Reggie and on and on and on. Worked out ok for him didn't it?

WORLD SERIES ON TV Part III

One more time, does it matter that the 07 World Series was the 2nd lowest rated EVER?

Maury Brown asks the same question. "The postseason is no longer the event that captivates a nation. Note that this year’s World Series was watched by an average of 17,123,000 for the four games. Compare that to the ’78 World Series between the Dodgers and the Yankees which pulled on an average of 44,278,950 for six games)." If I get my bong out and the music is right maybe I can ponder baseball's place in America ( from a Canadian basement ). As for how baseball's relatively puny World Series ratings effect the bottom line, a quote from Bill Shaikin. "Revenues from traditional tickets and local broadcast rights have more than tripled since 1994. And, with the value of sports programming rising to national advertisers struggling to reach mass audiences amid the proliferation of cable and satellite channels, national broadcast rights have soared from $52 million to $935 million." I'll add to Mr. Shaikin's comments that sports are TIVO proof, we still watch ads.

In addition to huge increases in broadcast rights, clubs are investing in RSNs which soon become more valuable than the clubs themselves. YES - Yankees - is valued at $3 - $3.5 BILLION and the O's have never been worth more - although their attendance is declining - thanks to their ownership in MASN. Ted Turner was a broadcast visionary ( as well as a nut job and an anti semite ). He was the first to realize the value of baseball to broadcasters - it provided a lot of relatively cheap content - way, way back in the early 70's.

JAYS

Are the Jays, along with a number of other other mid / small revenue teams, increasing their spending in the amateur Rule IV draft? The Jays doled out the 7th largest amount of bonus money in the 07 draft. This appears to be a change in strategy from previous years. Jim Callis from Baseball America told me in an email last offseason that in the 06 draft the Jays, "...came in at 26th among the 30 teams despite giving out more late six-figure bonuses than most clubs. In the past, they haven't spent exorbitantly on anyone, and my guess is they'd rank below average on an annual basis." The baseball amateur draft is not like the drafts in the other "ball & stick" leagues where the teams with the earliest picks usually acquire the best available amateur talent. "Signability", is the key in the Rule IV draft which makes the Jays change in approach significant. See more of my blather here on the Rule IV draft.

Travis Snider is the best Jays hitting prospect since...? Delgado? He's getting rave reviews in Baseball America ( Midwest & AFL). Jays fans who are anti Ricciardi / Moneyball can point to Snider as an example of the failings of the Moneyball approach under Ricciardi. Snider was chosen in the 1st round in 06 out of high school. From 02 - 05 Ricciardi had practiced the Moneyball orthodoxy, selecting college players in the 1st round - Adams, Hill, Jackson, Purcey & Romero. So far only Hill - a tremendous player - has performed up to the standards of a 1st rounder. You can also argue that the change in approach is a result of the success of Moneyball in Oakland being copied by their competitors which negates any advantages it once had. Or you can argue that Ricciardi's draft performance pretty much blows.

I still have high hopes for one of Ricciardi's 1st round college picks. SP David Purcey - selected in 04 - also performed very well in the AFL. Purcey, along with fellow starter and 05 1st rounder Ricky Romero, are often cited as Moneyball busts by Ricciardi's critics. Both have struggled since being drafted but Purcey's strong showing in the AFL could be an indicator that he is on the rise. Purcey certainly has a high ceiling, I've seen him pitch for Syracuse and although he was hit hard I was impressed. LH's who throw in the 90's ( I saw the guns ) are very rare.

MORE ON FREE AGENTS

As I wrote here, signing free agents is bad. The baseball geekdom immediately and unanimously express their disdain for GM's short sighted enough to "block prospects with overpaid veterans who also cost valuable draft picks" and all that. Last offseason the Cubs were the object of such ridicule for blowing $300 million in the free agent market but it was key to them making the playoffs. Yes the Cubs had some young talent step up - Hill, Marmol, Theriot, Marshall - but free agents Soriano, Lilly, Marquis, DeRosa and Floyd made them a playoff team . ( Playing in the NL Central where 85 wins makes you champ - 83 in 06 - certainly helps as well )

From the basement November 18

2007-11-18T13:32:00.000-05:00

BARRY BONDS

I'm happy it's ending this way. The indictment and subsequent end of his career. Bonds the villian, the monster with the enormous head, the arrogant, disdainful, egotistical, spoiled, cheating, lying Bonds. His legacy is now written as most fans want. They now have his head on a stick, the monster has been killed, the national pastime saved. If the fans are fortunate he'll be led off to jail while they all gleefully wag their sanctimonious fingers. Smug asses. I hope he remains a condescending prick until the end.

None of his prospective 30 employers wants anything to do with him. That's not a conspiracy. Really, who wants the pain in the ass at this point? It's not about his productivity, OPS a staggering 1.045 last season, in a pitchers' park, in the pitchers' league, in a woeful lineup. It's not even about the possibility of incarceration, I doubt you have to pay him or reserve a spot on the 40 man for him while he's in jail. It's about the problem he is. If you're a GM, do you want to justify signing Bonds to your owner, to the commissioner, to the press, to your fans, to your manager & coaching staff, to your veteran players, to the folks who tend to the clubhouse, to your media relations people?....NONE of them wants anything to do with the greatest baseball player of their generation.

Why were we all surprised when the indictment was announced? First, it wasn't leaked beforehand. Out of the blue it hit the wires early Thursday evening. Also Balco had become an old story that we were bored with. Barry Bonds is being investigated by a grand jury? So, what else is new? It's only been going on for 4 years, no Bonds indictment, no new athletes implicated, Anderson remains silent....yawn.

Most obviously, we ( baseball fans & media - I count myself in the former group only ) were unable to read the legal & political tea leaves. I read this piece in January about the outgoing Balco federal prosecutor - Kevin Ryan - and persuaded myself that the grand jury investigation into Bonds was a personal witch hunt of his and that it would die out subsequent to his departure. I was left with the impression of Ryan as a failed Bay Area jock with a chip on his moralistic shoulder and a Field of Dreams ( honest, he makes reference to it in the piece ) notion of baseball's importance. He didn't like cheating or cheaters and he was gonna clean up this mess.

Evidently the opposite was true. Ryan's departure was key to indicting Bonds according to Lester Munson . ( thanks to Sports Business News ) From Mr. Munson. "Last winter, President Bush obtained Ryan's resignation along with those of other U.S. Attorneys, which led to a partisan political battle. Although neither Bush nor Ryan ever discussed the Bonds investigation as a reason for Ryan's departure, numerous observers expected a Bonds indictment under the new leadership in the U.S. Attorney's office in San Francisco."

I went through a phase this winter - maybe a result of seasonal affective disorder combined with too much pot - when I was all Oliver Stone about Bonds and the US government. You know, steroids in the state of the union address, grand jury, Grimsley, oil, Katrina.....( think Syriana meets Eight Men Out ) and then spring came, I left the basement, got some ultraviolet exposure and forgot about it. But now I wonder again...Munson reminded me that the Balco investigation was initially announced in DC by then Attorney General John Ashcroft. Was Ashcroft or his superior(s) trophy hunting? Shouldn't there be more pressing matters for the Attorney General than Victor Conte and Patrick Arnold? Wasn't Bonds the ultimate target? Anderson, why do they care? He's nothing more than a common gym rat / steroid peddler. Marion Jones? Collateral damage. The almost immediate response from the White House Thursday evening also smells funny, in fact they were aware of the indictment before Bonds. According to the AP, Bonds' lawyer ( one of his lawyers ) John Burris was unaware of the indictment when they contacted him....is that normal protocol...Oliver? Mr. Stone?

GEORGE MITCHELL

The end of Bonds' career sets the stage perfectly for George Mitchell. As Jeff Blair put it, the fans have their "pound of flesh". Now we can move forward. We're sick of reading and hearing about steroids, we're ready for healing and forgiveness. We want to like baseball, to believe that it is fair and good.

Mitchell will present overwhelming evidence that the game was dirty. Fans know that, no surprise to any of us. Mitchell will provide a platform, that MLB controls, from which MLB can manage the message. Mitchell is a company man don't forget, Blue Ribbon panel member, Red Sox Director and long rumored commissioner ( too old now ). Initially MLB will express surprise at the extent of PED usage detailed by Mitchell, followed by constant apologies from MLB for their negligence and "betrayal of the fans", followed by solemn, ironclad guarantees that this era is over, that testing is working & will be strengthened, it's all under control. And the fans will eat it up big time, because they're ready to, because cheating ( at least chemically ) isn't fun anymore, because they'll enjoy the contrived public self-flagellation, because it's what they want to hear, because they never really cared in the first place ( not enough to stay away ) because Bonds has been punished and that is right and is simple and makes sense.

Will MLB punish any of the players implicated by Mitchell? Unlikely. The owners don't desire a protracted legal battle with the PA which would keep this issue in the baseball press. Also, MLB gains nothing by publicly embarrassing the players. The players are the product. Instead MLB will tell us that they are responsible for allowing a climate which rewarded cheating and punished clean players. MLB needs the fans to like the players. We'll be told it wasn't their fault, they're good guys, their behavior was a natural reaction to the era in which they played.

THE FUTURE

What is the future of PEDs in MLB? I believe there was less juice in the game this season as evidenced by the notable decline in HRs. This probably has little to do with MLB's testing and everything to do with the Federal Government. The Grimsley, Radomski, Balco, Signature investigations have been much more effective in unearthing dirty players than anything MLB has done. I.E. This quote from an MLB.com piece from February 22. "Last season, no player on the 25-man roster of the 30 teams tested positive." Everybody was clean in 06? Stunning. Then why are the feds turning up scads of evidence of baseball players illegally purchasing PEDs?

But how long will the Feds remain interested in the problem of illegal steroid distribution? ( The pro athletes implicated in these investigations are not the primary targets, save for Bonds / Balco ) Will a change in administration be the end of it? If yes, does that mean MLB's testing will be the only deterrent to the use of PEDs?

Even if the will exists to remove PEDs completely from the game, ( and it doesn't ) is that a realistic objective? Are the chemists up to the challenge? For decades, in elite sports around the globe, amateur and professional, the cheaters have remained far ahead of the regulators. For all the efforts of WADA ( my Canada does not include Dick Pound ), governing bodies, pro leagues, cheating is as widespread - maybe more widespread - than ever. Is this because the rewards are greater for the cheaters? Does Patrick Arnold stand to benefit more working for Victor Conte than he does Bud Selig? There isn't even a test for HGH, so how do you prevent it's use? ( Some think that the benefits of HGH are overstated anyway ). More evidence of the ineffectiveness of testing in MLB was revealed in the 03 "survey" testing which concluded that 5 - 7 % of players were dirty. Laughable, ludicrous. Does anybody, fan, writer, player, owner, trainer, clubhouse gopher, coach, GM believe that in a typical 03 MLB game there were only 3 to 4 dirty players? And this test was conducted under conditions - anonymous, no punishment - which discouraged players from avoiding detection. Under different conditions, punitive measures for positive tests, would the results have been even lower? If the testing is that ineffective, is it fair? If we want fairness, let's turn back the clock and allow all the players to take whatever the hell they please.

Do we, the fans, honestly want a clean game? Do we want the players in the training room more frequently and on the field less? More importantly, do we want players who are smaller, weaker, slower? The evolution of the athlete, in every sport on every continent, is a fundamental element of the appeal. And for the past 30 years, steroids, blood doping, HGH etc. have been essential to that evolution. Fans think they want a clean game but if faced with it we wouldn't like it as much.

Does the industry, management and labor, want a clean game? Business is booming. who wants to change a winning formula? Certainly not owners. And the PA? If this were a John Sayles movie, Donald Fehr would be Chris Cooper, and he would be on a crusade to remove steroids & amphetamines from the game because they are destroying the lives of players and their families and lining the pockets of evil captialists. But this isn't a John Sayles movie and the agents' only concern is how large their 5% cut is, not if their client dies an early death from liver damage.

The last word to the smartest sports fans on the Web - The Sports Economists . From Professor Phil Miller's January 25 posting. "The reason why steroids are tolerated in sports while gambling is fought tenaciously is because steroids help the bottom line of team owners while gambling hurts it." That isn't about to change.

From the basement November 12

2007-11-12T13:51:00.000-05:00

November, ugh. I recently took the space heater out of storage and have been firing it up most nights to stay warm here in the basement. The offseason ( 1 of the 4 seasons, regular, post & spring training are the others ) is well underway and like always, it is very entertaining ( actually it's more entertaining than either postseason or spring training ).

There's the nuts & bolts of the offseason to monitor; trades, rehabs, roster moves, non tenders, AFL & Winter League tidbits, 6 yr minor league FA's, major league FA filings, farm system assessments, Elias' soon to be released top secret Free Agent Compensation Rankings ( VERY important )....there's always something. I WON'T be paying much attention to awards season, through osmosis I'll know the results but I'm not interested in the chatter that results from it. It's "Hot Stove" season as well, scads of redundant analysis of each teams' strengths and weaknesses ( Nate Silver does a find job ), trade analysis ( I like BA's ), plus endless rumor and conjecture ( and conjecture about the conjecture ) concerning pending free agent signings and trades. However there are some matters unique to this particular offseason that are of interest.

FREE AGENCY - THE BEGINNING OF THE END?

Once you get beyond the best baseball player in the world, the most reviled baseball player in the world, a handful of top shelf CF's plus Lowell & Cordero, the free agent market is weak. Many have made the same point and it has led to the widespread conclusion that there will be more trades this offseason as a result. I agree.

Where did all the free agents go? An inordinate number of potential free agents were signed during the season, Zambrano, Buerhle, Dye etc. As Maury Brown explains, "...clubs are wrapping up contracts more often now – signing players to extensions, which in turn lowers the number of players in the free agency pool....What has happened over the years is a case of viewing free agency as an inefficient avenue in which to build contenders." This isn't to say that this offseason free agents won't cash in big, in fact Maury correctly points out that the diminished number of quality free agents will have an inflationary impact on their value. ( Record industry revenues of $6 billion doesn't hurt either ). In other words, Carlos Silva will soon sign a contract for $50 million. Marvin Miller got it right decades ago when he said the owners - for their own benefit - should make all the players free agents every offseason because limiting their availability inflates their value. ( Or somethin like that ).

I also wonder if the diminished number of free agents is attributable in some way to the record salaries being paid. In other words, has the money finally gotten so stupidly big that agents & players can't be bothered / or are too embarrassed to enter the free agent market? Would Vernon Wells have commanded more than $126 million as a free agent? Yeah, why not? But at that point does it matter to him?

Anyway, Maury's right, the new breed of Ivy League geek management has concluded that free agency is not a preferred option in constructing a team. Young talent - especially pitching - is considered more valuable than ever. This increased emphasis on player development was evident in the most recent Rule IV draft. From Jim Callis @ BA: "The Yankees aggressively signed players in last year's draft, and did so again, spending $7,432,500 in the first 10 rounds. But the Orioles ($7,672,500) and Nationals ($7,619,300) outspent them there, and the Tigers ($7,305,000), Devil Rays ($7,172,000) and Giants ($7,027,000) came close." This all makes sense, competing with the Yanks for amateur talent makes more sense than competing with them for top level free agents. But what's the end game with this strategy? If everybody "allocates more resources" to the draft because it's more "efficient", won't it artificially inflate the value of the amateur players? There won't be more and better players in the draft, there'll just be more money spread around amongst them.

I question if player development has become as efficient as the new breed thinks. Has amateur scouting, drafting, player development - whatever you wanna call it - improved that much since Sandy Alderson concluded it was pretty much shit? Isn't it still a crapshoot? Don't a lot of high picks still stiff? Doesn't the valuation of 16 - 21 year old baseball players remain a very inexact science? Put another way, I'm the only guy who thinks that paying Matt Morris $8 million a year is a viable alternative to ploughing it into the likes of Burnett, Bullington, VanBenschoten & Lincoln.

MLB LOSES

Well, you can't have everything. You can increase your revenues from $3.7 billion in 03 to $6 billion in 07 but you still can't have everything. MLB is losing their legal battle with CDM Fantasy Sports over rights to player statistics ( or the publicity rights associated with the stats depending on your viewpoint ). Essentially the courts have ruled that you don't have to pay MLB - who in turn where paying the PA - for their stats and the player names associated with them. If the battle has been lost - it's not over but so far it's not going well - it's a big blow to the "ball & stick " leagues who all filed briefs on behalf of MLB. Estimates are 15 - 18 million people ( men ) participate in baseball and football fantasy leagues to the tune of $1 billion + per year. I'm on MLB's side in this case - and I don't play fantasy baseball - but they've got so much friggin money I can't feel sorry for them.

INSTANT REPLAY

I don't like it in the NFL, too slow, although I'm in favor of it's use in postseason. I don't want it in baseball either. Oddly, I am increasingly in favor of using Ques Tec - or some other technology - for calling balls & strikes. MLB must have the data, ( Ques Tec is in about a dozen parks? ) and I suspect it would reveal that there are a lot of biases amongst the umps. MLB is a small community and it is naive to believe that a lot of hitters and pitchers - and some teams - don't get screwed by umps who(m) they are unpopular with. It's also time for Derek Jeter to hit with the same strike zone as Yuniesky Betancourt. Also, post Donaghy, shouldn't leagues go further to protect the integrity of their product?

STADIA

As expected, the Marlins and A's continue their efforts to construct new stadiums. The most unexpected news this offseason is that the Rays are negotiating with governments in FLA for a new stadium as well ( long term "The Trop" is far & away the Rays biggest problem ). I read no rumors or speculation about this anywhere. Not in SBJ, or Biz of Baseball or Field of Schemes. I thought in this era of the Web that nothing remained quiet. Not so.

What happens if one of, or a combination of, the A's, Rays & Marlins are unsuccessful in getting their new stadiums constructed? What are the options? Will Las Vegas or Portland do what DC did? Build it, pay for it and turn the keys over to the franchise owners? ( That's why MLB owned the Expos for as long as they did, they were waiting for somebody to pay for a new stadium. It does wonders for franchise values, they sold the Expos for $450 million ) The other option, increasingly speculated about, is to go the NFL G3 route. That has to be a better alternative than the continued subsidization of these clubs by their partners via luxury taxes and revenue sharing.

COLLUSION

Is the PA sabre rattling or are they preparing for battle? Fehr made accusations of collusion after the just completed GM meetings in relation to the free agent market and in particular to the free agency of A Rod. This following the PA's concerns this summer over Selig's attempts ( did he succeed? ) to enforce "slot recommendations " in the June Rule IV draft. Public comments such as these by Omar Minaya won't help the owners' case. “We’ve adhered to the commissioner’s slot recommendations,” Minaya said. “We’ve been good citizens. But not all the teams have done that, and the competitive balance is not fair. We have to take that position under review as an organization.”

THE MITCHELL REPORT

When it is finally released - expected now this offseason - there will be saturation coverage in the baseball press. An anonymous team official has been quoted as saying that the report will be "salacious". No doubt it will. Between BALCO, Radomski, Grimsley, Signature etc., there is no shortage of names to be named. Buster Olney thinks dozens of players, current and retired, will be implicated.

This will be the latest overreported "athlete conduct" story. Fans have proven - we'll tell you differently if asked - that we don't care about "athlete conduct". I.E. Vick, Pac Man, Browne Saunders / Thomas / Dolan, Bonds / BALCO etc. The NFL has not suffered, Knicks season ticket renewals were very strong, 79 million of us ( well, not me ) walked through turnstiles this season at MLB games and the beat goes on....Only the writers and blog geeks care if this era is "tainted", if there should be asterisks, how it will impact HOF voting, yada. ( Yes I'm a blog geek but if I ever participate in an online argument about asterisks in baseball somebody please come to my basement and shoot me. ) The Mitchell Report will have zero impact on the popularity of MLB.

From the basement November 03

2007-11-03T19:50:00.000-04:00

WORLD SERIES ON TV Part II

Maybe I was wrong? I don't know, I'm back to square 1. Eric Fisher from SBJ convinced me that the late start times of World Series games does not have a negative impact on TV ratings - see my previous post. But William Houston @ The Globe & Mail thinks otherwise. See here and scroll to the postings from October 30 for full text.

Despite the spin, Fox Television’s audience figures for the World Series (Boston-Colorado) were not good.

Yes, the ratings were up 5 per cent from last year (St. Louis-Detroit), but given that the 2006 fall classic was the lowest rated ever, that’s nothing to boast about.

The fact is, the 10.6 average rating (percentage of potential households tuned in) this year ranks second lowest ever, despite the participation of the Red Sox, one of the few major league teams to have a national following.

Fox argues that the games’ late starts (8:35 p.m. EDT) and late finishes (midnight) don’t affect ratings, but obviously they do. True, the numbers climb after 11 p.m. EDT, but that’s only because viewership is increasing west of the Eastern Time zone. Viewership would increase even more significantly past 11 p.m. if the games started at 8:05 p.m. sharp or better still 7:30 p.m.

Who's right on this one? MLB / FOX / SBJ or William Houston ( very credible ) and every single sports columnist ( not so credible ) in the east?

I was definitely wrong when I wrote that the TV ratings for this World Series were great - obviously they weren't. I read after Game 1 that the share was up 37% over last year's Game 1 and mistakenly jumped to the conclusion that the presence of the Red Sox was responsible and the strong #'s would continue through to the completion. I missed the fact that the increased ratings for Game 1 were a result of moving it from a Saturday ( TV's lowest rated nite ) to a Wednesday.

So even with the presence of the Red Sox, the just completed World Series is the 2nd lowest rated ever ( albeit only a 4 game series ). Is this an indication that the popularity of baseball in the US is in decline? Absolutely not. The diminished ratings are a result of audience fragmentation. All other metrics ( I just want an excuse to say how much I hate that term ) indicate that MLB is healthier than ever.

GIRARDI, TORRE & HANK STEINBRENNER

How much impact do manager's have on their clubs' performance? ( I haven't a clue how to measure it but I know the math geeks are looking into it. ) I've always thought that their impact is grossly overrated & over analyzed by baseball writers because it's entertaining, we all like to second guess. But aren't the players overwhelmingly responsible for the #'s of wins and losses? At the MLB level shouldn't the difference between the best and worst manager be negligible? I.E It's not like I'm managing against Tony LaRussa. All this to say that I have been pretty much disinterersted in the very large amount of writing devoted to the hirings of Girardi and Torre.

I initially thought that the Yanks were unprofessional and took a cowardly route in ridding themselves of Torre. They made him an offer - a pay cut - they knew he would refuse, as opposed to telling him straight up that he was done. Hank Steinbrenner changed my mind when he said. "Where was Joe's career in '95 when my dad hired him? My dad was crucified for hiring him. Let's not forget what my dad did in giving him that opportunity - and the great team he was handed." So said Hank ( I even like his name ) after Torre rejected the Yanks offer of $5 million ( plus $3 million in incentives ).

Right on Hank! The NYC baseball writers long ago deified Torre. I attribute this to his winning obviously, but just as much, the writers genuinely like the guy. Torre made their jobs easier. He cooperated with them, always accessible, always affable, was Torre. But I think Hank is right, they owe him nothing, he's not a victim, he had a great run in NYC.

REVENUE SHARING

The new CBA is supposed to have fixed this problem:

"Revenue sharing has little impact on the expected marginal revenue and marginal costs of ticket sales, and it especially has little impact on the expected marginal revenue product and marginal factor costs of hiring more talent for the team. As a result, many teams like, say, Tampa Bay, respond to what is essentially a lump-sum transfer by pocketing the extra cash." "So revenue-sharing also reduces the marginal revenue of an expected win, and not just for the big-market teams that are taxed to support the programme; it also reduces the incentive for small market teams, the recipients of revenue-sharing, to win too."

Those quotes from The Sports Economist - see November 03 post - in reaction to a NY Times op ed piece by Michael Lewis - not the Moneyball author, the assistant professor of marketing at the Olin Business School at Washington University - on revenue sharing in baseball.

These allegations of small market teams pocketing their revenue sharing dough have been reportedly widely for sometime. I.E. it's generally accepted that the Pirates have been using their share to pay down team debt instead of signing or developing better players. But I thought this era of unprecedented competitive balance ( 07 the first season in how many with no teams > .600 or <.400? ) was an indication that revenue sharing was having at least some of the impact that it was intended to. Yes? No?

PED's SCHPIEL #1

I wrote this offseason that I didn't think MLB's rank & file customers gave a hoot about PED's. I think I was proven right this season when MLB set it's 4th consecutive season attendance record, tallying 79 million. This during the same season when steroids - via the Bonds HR chase - was the subject of saturation media coverage. We watch sports because it's entertaining - has been for centuries. We don't care about the ethical issues involved. Look at the record popularity of MLB, the absence of a backlash from Knicks' supporters post Browne Saunders and nothing that NFL players do off the field ( and they're doin a lot of stuff ) has a negative impact on the bottom line of the NFL. We know pro athletes are not role models, nor do we want them to be. They're entertainers, we understand that, unfortunately a lot of sportswriters don't.

PED's SCHPIEL #2

Pro sports, baseball included, is so full of greed and cheating. Aren't you sick of it? I think it's indicative of our overly materialistic western values. Want further evidence? Read the following from James Christie @ The Globe & Mail.

"The human consequences of East German steroid use, long whispered about, were quantified in a recently published two-year study conducted by the Humboldt University in Germany. The study involved 52 Olympic and elite-level former East German athletes, now aged between 40 and 60 and their 69 children. This represents only a fraction of an athlete population that grew up in a state sport system that essentially sacrificed their health for the propaganda value of victory in sport during the 1970s and 1980s.

German researcher Giselher Spitzer told the Play the Game sports conference the incidence of abnormalities is frighteningly higher for those in the study than in the general population. Seven of the athlete offspring have physical deformities. Four are mentally handicapped. More than a quarter of the children have allergies and 23 per cent have asthma.

He said the risk of miscarriage and stillbirth in the female athletes was 32 times higher than in the German population. Thirty-two of the 52 athletes have received therapy for psychiatric issues and a quarter of those studied had suffered some form of cancer."

Jesus Christ.

Here you can find the full text, scroll to the postings from October 31.

From the basement October 28

2007-10-28T18:16:00.000-04:00

World Series games start too late?

Game 4 of the World Series tonight, I'm likely to fall asleep again before the completion. Woke up sitting on the couch around 12:15 last nite, checked the score & inning - 9-5, top of 8 - and said to hell with it and went to bed. Checked the time of the game this AM in the boxscore, 4:19. Wow.

What I've written above is the same griping that I have been reading for years in newspapers ( and more recently blogs ) on the stupidly late start times of World Series games and the harm it does to MLB. For years writers have been complaining about it - of course it's always about the kids, poor little one's can't stay up to see the end - and criticizing MLB for it's ignorance and incompetence in marketing itself. Over these years I've wondered....On the one hand I see the writers' point, I'm falling asleep, I have to guess most others are as well, that can't be good. On the other hand I always knew that the folks who run TV sports and MLB aren't stupid. MLB has grown it's revenues to $6 billion, it doesn't happen by accident, they do understand marketing & TV.

Well finally I've seen the numbers and no surprise, the writers and bloggers have it wrong. See the comments below from reporter Eric Fisher on his recent SBJ piece. ( Thanks to Maury Brown )

"The ratings data, over a period of years, shows that the later a game starts and finishes, the better rating – across all demographics with the exception of adults aged 55 and above. For MLB postseason specifically, ratings for all demos except the 55+ crowd went up after 11 p.m., and the World Series year after year gets 4 to 6 percent of its total viewing audience from viewers aged 11 and under. It’s a refrain the networks have been making for years, but it goes directly against the grain of East Coast columnist opinion claiming the late-night play is eroding youth interest in MLB......... Basically what we have is a collision of two less-than-perfect methods of research – Nielsen’s sampling versus the tiny focus groups of one or two in the homes of each columnist decrying the playoff TV schedule."

FOX

The baseball bloggers and the baseball writers are united, FOX's post season baseball coverage is awful. I read a lot of baseball stuff, blogs, big media, geek boutique, industry publications...and the reaction is loud, widespread and endless. I think there is so much being written about it because it's not - to this point - been an entertaining World Series for us hardcores ( TV numbers are great because casual fans know who the Red Sox are ) so it gives us one more thing to blather on about. As for the blogosphere in particular, I think the anti FOX bleating is in some part due to a contrived, anti corporate attitude. We're bloggers, we're not FOX. Big deal.

TV Ratings

I was disappointed that the Indians were eliminated because the TV ratings for an Indians / Rockies World Series would have been the worst ever - easily. In turn it would have been the most overreported story of the World Series. Great gobs of misinformed commentary amongst general sports columnists about the declining popularity of baseball in America. Instead the superstar Red Sox are in, TV ratings are great and MLB is doing a great job - it's all that simple.

From the basement October 23

2007-10-23T18:37:00.000-04:00

Blue Jays

The only team - in any sport - I root for is the Jays. I hop on the Senators bandwagon Game 1, Round 1, ( even fly a flag on my truck, until it falls off, which is typically around the end of Round 1 ) and hop off within seconds of their final playoff game. I was a fan of our Triple A Lynx but it wasn't the same as the Jays. Ultimately the AAA team exists to support the big team, which I found a disincentive to investing in it emotionally. I was a Renegades / Riders fan when the CFL was here. I watch NFL, if anything I'm a Bills fan because for years all their games were broadcast in this market. Today I couldn't name 4 Bills players. Still I remain a fan of the Jays. Unfortunately I'm not optimistic about the future of baseball in Toronto. My pessimism has nothing to do with a disappointing 83 win season just ended - they were unlucky, good health is good luck - in fact I think they can compete for a playoff spot into September next season. Longer term I think there are some fundamental reasons that the Jays franchise will struggle.

The NFL in Toronto

Lots and lots of talk in Toronto concerning the NFL coming to town. The talk centres around whether or not it will happen - it will - and the resulting impact on the CFL. I haven't read any opinion on the effect the NFL in Toronto will have on the Blue Jays but it certainly won't be positive.

The Blue Jays already compete with the Leafs and Raptors ( the Argos are irrelevant ) for dollars, on an individual fan level and on a corporate level. When the NFL comes to Toronto the Jays will find selling tickets, suites, signage, sponsorships, merchandise, a whole lot more "competitive". The sports pie is only so big and the Jays piece will certainly be smaller than at present.

In the short term both the Jays and the NFL will share a facility but everybody knows that a new NFL only stadium will be constructed. When the NFL stadium is complete the Rogers Centre will compare poorly, in comfort, concessions, signage, suites, club levels etc. Corporate Toronto, which is to say corporate Canada, will turn their noses up at the drab, old, ghetto, Rogers Centre.

There's only so much oxygen and the NFL will suck up a lot of it. Fans have limited time and appetites for sports. To think that a lot of Toronto sports fans won't be devoting time and attention to the NFL - in the initial seasons particulary - is naive. Are the Jays en route to becoming #4 - of the big 4 - in the Toronto sports market?

The Rogers Centre

The Rogers Centre is crap for baseball. This problem exists regardless of whether or not another football stadium is ever constructed in Toronto. It always was a shitty place to watch baseball, even when the Jays were drawing 4 million per year. It's too big, too sterile, too much cement. I always felt like I was watching a baseball game in a shopping mall, right down to the food - MacDonalds. It was very novel and popular initially, the roof opened and closed ( a quantum leap forward from the Olympic Stadium ), the structure was mammoth, the jumbotron was not to be believed, the team was exciting. Nothing draws a crowd like a crowd.

Read my lips, it's the stadium, stupid. The contemporary / retro baseball stadium is the biggest single factor in the unprecedented popularity of professional baseball ( MLB, MILB, Independent Leagues ) and the Jays don't have one and are not likely to get one. The Jays remain one of few teams in MLB playing in the now antiquated multi purpose facility. ( Oakland and Florida are desparately trying to get out of their multi purpose facilities. ) People love the new stadiums, more intimate, seats closer to the field, fewer seats, better sight lines, better concessions and a baseball "retro feel". Of the 79 million fans who went to MLB games this season, most I would agrue, could care less about baseball. People go with friends, family, co workers, suppliers, customers. They arrive late, leave early, eat, drink, chat, maybe watch some of the game, maybe not, and they love it. People like the atmosphere, the escape, the diversion.

But the importance of a stadium goes beyond mere attendance. Attendance isn't the key figure. The key figure is how much revenue a team generates per game and that involves much more than turnstile clicks. It's about ticket prices, suite prices, signage, sponsorships and the like. The newer the stadium, the greater the opportunities and Rogers Centre is now considered old, soon to be 20. ( Daniel Snyder is talking about his need for a new stadium and Fed Ex Field is only 10 years old! )

The AL East

I wish the Jays would / could leave the AL East. If this franchise played in any other division it would be compete for a playoff spot with some regularity. This has more to do with the magical parity elixir of luxury taxes, revenue sharing, wild card than anything the Jays are doing. But the Jays, O's and D Rays are at the biggest competitive disadvantage in MLB, playing the evil empires ( yes they number 2 now ) close to 1/4 of their schedules. I don't know how long it's been since an AL East team other than the evil empires made the playoffs but it's too long and is killing interest in the Jays.

I don't know if Rogers sees it that way though. The Yankees ( 10,000 per game above league average as a road draw ) and Red Sox are obviously very popular in Toronto both at the gate and on TV - they are the superstars of MLB. I haven't seen any speculation about realignment in a long time, contraction never happened and nobody foresees expansion, so maybe Jays fans are stuck with it.

The Suits

Ted Rogers will be part of the ownership group that brings the NFL to Toronto. What does this mean for his Blue Jays? I am in the camp who believe that Mr. Rogers boosted the Jays payroll the past handful of seasons simply because he was tired of owning a middling baseball team, he decided he wanted to win. I suspect his NFL franchise will become his new favorite play toy and that the Jays will suffer from his neglect ( his money ).

Bob McCown told his audience this past Friday that Jays President Paul Godfrey is on the way out. ( In so many words he said that. ) McCown is a credible guy - especially on matters Toronto sports -, he wouldn't intimate that without some sound knowledge. The better question is, who is his anonymous source and what is the motive of that anonymous source? Is Rogers trying to embarrass Godfrey, nudge him toward the door? Further evidence that there is something to this speculation is Godfrey's silence these past few weeks. Nobody has been more publicly associated with Toronto's desire to lure the NFL to town than Godfrey, for decades he has been pounding the drum. But now, when speculation is more rampant than ever and the NFL is making official announcments about Bills games in Toronto, Godfrey is nowhere.

If Godfrey is on the outs with Rogers ( Mr. & Corporation ) that isn't good for the Jays. Mr. Rogers hiring of Godfrey - and Godfrey's willingness to take the job - were an indication that Mr. Rogers was taking more of an interest in his baseball team. The recent increase in Jays payroll was also an indication that Godfrey had some schlep upstairs. If Godfrey leaves I will interpret that as a sign that Mr. Rogers is losing interest in baseball and the payroll will decline.

Moneyball

Paul Godfrey drank the Moneyball Kool Aid and hired one of Billy Beane's disciples - J.P. Ricciardi. Godciaardi did a marvelous sales job in Toronto. They told anybody and everybody that J.P. would compete with the evil empires because - just like Beane - although he had less money, he was smarter, he understood Moneyball. ( It was better than selling Buck Martinez as the savior. ) One big problem, everybody else read the book too. Opinion amongst the baseball geeks is that by the time Moneyball was published most of the teams had, in varying degrees, adopted the basic principles of it. Yes Billy Beane, Sandy Alderson, Paul DePodesta, Bill James, J.P. et. al were ahead of the curve, but as Rob Neyer said not long ago ( I'm paraphrasing probably ) re. Moneyball, the low hanging fruit has been picked. In other words, everybody's doin it, so you ain't got no advantage any longer. Godciaardi knows Moneyball? Good, get in line. In fact, the Jays increased payroll the past handful of years - and Godciaardi's public lobbying for the increase - is an admission that Moneyball isn't the magic cure any longer.

From the basement October 20

2007-10-20T17:44:00.000-04:00

THE FANS ARE FULL OF SHIT

Yes, sports fans, baseball fans included, are full of it.

The Colorado Rockies are one of the great baseball stories of my era - and I'm not young, I'm 45 - but relative to their accomplishments they are practically ignored by the fans and the press this October. This despite them being the quintessential Cinderella team. Nobody outside of Denver knew who they were until about 3 weeks ago - in fact, nobody in Denver knew either - and next week they will be playing in the World Series. They're everything that fans claim to love in a team; a small market underdog - built without expensive free agents - , a young humble star at SS, an unsung MVP candidate in LF, a loyal vet at 1B who stayed through the tough times and is now being rewarded with a World Series trip and an unprecedented 21 / 22 hot streak that includes wins in a 1 game playoff - come from behind in the 13th no less - and 7 straight post season wins. Scrappy, gritty, no quit, unheralded, ignored, nobody believed in us,
lunch bucket, yada, yada. But who cares?

Fans lie. Contrary to what fans tell one another, the Rockies is not the kind of story they love, nobody's watching, TV ratings are awful ( what that means is a different rant ). They're even a secondary story on the baseball sites. Know what the fans are interested in? Fans love to hate the New York Yankees.

The Yankees were eliminated almost 2 weeks ago but remain the dominant story this post season. Fan interest this October is much greater in the Yankees' day to day soap opera of Torre, A Rod, Steinbrenner, than in the Rockies historic performance and inspirational Rudy ( which I've not seen ) subtext. Everybody is interested in the Yankees because baseball is entertainment and entertainment is about stars. The Yankees are superstars; the franchise, the owner, the players ( past and present ), the stadium, the logo, the lore. They are North American sports greatest villians - they represent wealth, power and greed - in the simple but fun morality play of good teams vs. bad teams.

Nobody in sports valued the importance of stars more than George Steinbrenner. Love him or hate him ( I miss him ) Mr. Steinbrenner understood that the Yankees were showbiz; Reggie, Billy Martin, Jeter, A Rod, Clemens, Steinbrenner himself for that matter. Gooden and Strawberry were brought to the Bronx long past their peak years because Mr. Steinbrenner understood that they were big stars if not great baseball players any longer. George Steinbrenner transformed the Yankees into THE YANKEES again. Mr. Steinbrenner wasn't satisfied with just winning, he realized the value in winning with swagger.

A Rod & The Yankees

All of that above brings me round to the debate about the lengths the Yanks should go to in their attempts to resign A Rod.

YES. The Yankees & Nets debuted their own RSN, YES, in 02 and according to Chris Isidore it is now worth about $3.5 billion. The Yankees own 36 % of YES. Much has been written about A Rod's value to YES - and by extension to the Yanks -, due to Scott Boras' manipulation of the baseball writers. Boras has even suggested that YES should pay a portion of A Rod's deal should he resign with the Yanks. Most baseball writers ( Gammons was sucked in early but has probably had a change of heart ) doubt Boras' claims re. A Rod's value to YES, but probably more due to their dislike of Boras than anything else. Nonetheless credible sources agree that Boras is overstating A Rod's value to YES but I have to admire his originality. Leave it to Boras to be the first agent to suggest that an RSN should pony up for some of the salary of the superstar of the network's primary attraction. Less attention ( although plenty ) was also given to speculation ( started by Boras if you believe the conjecture in the press ) that A Rod would become part owner of the Cubs if he signed with them. Boras is smart, greedy but smart. He realizes that payroll taxes on big market clubs are a disincentive to sign his client and is looking for creative ways around it.

The New Yankee Stadium opens in 09. Obviously this will boost Yanks revenues substantially. Again there is much speculation about how much additional revenue A Rod can generate in the new stadium and his value to the Yanks given that they will be competing with other local pro sports franchises for the luxury box dollar. In other words if you're a super wealthy corporation headquartered in NYC do you want boxes at the new Yankee Stadium or the Mets new Citifield or the yet unnamed Jets / Giants stadium or the Nets new Barclays arena?

We all know that the Yanks have the resources to pay A Rod more than their competitors, particularly with the new stadium opening in 09. Nonetheless there is opinion that A Rod is worth more to some other teams than the Yanks. For starters, the Yanks have to pay the 40% luxury tax on A Rod's $$$ - a lot of scratch. Perhaps A Rod is worth more in NYC wearing pinstripes than anywhere else but Isidore notes that the bottom feeding Florida Marlins could benefit the most from ponying up for A Rod. "The Marlins are an interesting possibility," said Tim Mahon, principal for Anderson Economic Group, a business valuation service, who has studied team values. "I think it makes much more sense than it does for some of the other choices." Mahon said that for deep-pocketed successful teams like the Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Red Sox or Angels, "there's a marginal economic benefit from bringing him in, even as fabulous a player as he is. But look at the upside for the Marlins, not just in ticket revenue but also the structure of a new stadium deal." The Marlins would not be subject to the 40% luxury payroll tax either.

We'll know 10 days from the conclusion of the World Series if Hal Steinbrenner is the master promoter that his father was. But regardless of what the Yankee beancounters tell Hal ( and maybe they'll conclude that A Rod is worth whatever Boras decides ) the Yankees should resign A Rod because they are THE YANKEES and A Rod is THE SUPERSTAR and to not resign A Rod is to diminish the Yankees profile, their entertainment value, their brand ( I hate that word ).

Come on, A Rod in FLA, Texas, Chicago, Anaheim ( Jeff Blair thinks Stoneman stepped aside because Moreno wants to deal directly with Boras ) etc.? How boring.

From the basement October 16

2007-10-16T16:19:00.000-04:00

The post season is well under way but as far as I'm concerned the real baseball season - the regular one - ended over 2 weeks ago.

I start looking forward to the end of it when September rolls around, primarily because so many of the September games are de facto meaningless exhibitions. But as well I enjoy the end of it because it frees up a lot of time. I spend a lot of time during baseball season watching baseball and following the day to day grist of it; ALL the boxcsores, injuries, probables, transactions, stats, minor league prospects.....but once the box scores for the 162nd games ( this year there was a 163rd ) have been read, the day to day obsessive routines of the season end with it.

Yes the post season takes up some of my time but in relative terms a lot less. Now that the NLCS is complete, we're down to a paltry 1 game per day with plenty of off days in between. I don't spend time reading the the post season analyses because it's the post season. The analyses are irrelevant because the outcomes are literally a crapshoot. If there is one thing that the math heads have proven about baseball, it is that the randomness of baseball is what makes it baseball. Even the Rockies 21 / 22 run, while unprecedented in my time, is an example of the randomness. In other words, playoff prognostications, whether proven right or wrong, are complete bullshit.

So what happens in the basement now? Hopefully a lot more blogging and more frequent reading of a few brilliant web sites that I neglect during the season

THE SPORTS ECONOMIST

This is the site of Raymond "Skip" Sauer, Professor and Chair, Department of Economics, Clemson University. His vitae lists his Research Interests as "Industrial organization and regulation; financial economics; economics of sports; also monetary theory and business cycles, academic labor markets."

Thankfully Mr. Sauer is also a sports fan, as are his stable of 9 regular contributors / economists to The Sports Economist. I'll admit, I don't know a regression analysis from a coefficient, but if you want opinion and commentary on sports that is at the front of the curve, read this blog.

Wanna see how far off the deep end the math geeks can go into the statistical anyalysis of baseball? I dare you to try and understand the math - not the ideas or conclusions, the math - in the paper "The Monyeball Anomaly and Payroll Efficiency", co authored by Professor Sauer and Professor Jahn K. Hakes ( you'll find the link in the October 04 posting ). As Alan Schwarz revealed to us in his wonderfully entertaining history of the baseball geekdom, The Numbers Game, there is a community of math geniuses who are really, really, really into baseball stats.

But it's not the math that makes this site entertaining, it's the opinion and the commentary that you don't find in the mainstream sports media. Take the always popular subject of competitive balance. MLB takes great pride in the increased parity they have orchestrated the past several years. The prevailing wisdom amongst the chattering classes is that parity & the Wild Card ( the two go hand in hand ) are the principal factors in the 4th consecutive season of record attendance. Well, not so fast, Professor Sauer doesn't agree. "Many in the media....are singing the praises of "parity," as if the shrinking gap between the best and worst clubs this year is responsible for MLB's record attendance. I'm on the record as being skeptical of this claim." One of Professor Sauer's colleagues, Professor Dave Berri, also thinks that the impact of competitive balance on increased attendance in pro sports is overstated - he uses the NBA to illustrate his point - and makes this controversial remark , "If competitive balance is not necessary for the survival of a sports league, aren’t the rules designed to promote balance just an attempt by owners to take money away from players?" Hmmm, I'd love to ask Don Fehr if he is in agreement.

Listen to the interview - solely on the subject of baseball - with Professor Sauer courtesy of Bloomberg News ( you'll find the podcast link in the October 09 posting ) and you will hear more unconventional opinions on matters MLB. I.E. Professor Sauer doubts that steroids have had a material impact on baseball, he thinks they help the pitchers as much as the hitters and that the juice has made more of an impact on sportswriting than anything else. On the trendy subject of AL superiority, Professor Sauer agrees with the chattering classes that the AL is superior, but unlike the baseball writers he does not attribute it to the challenge of keeping pace with the superpower Yankees and Red Sox. Professor Sauer believes that the superiority of the AL is a result of the DH. He believes the DH has changed the allocation of talent in MLB, not just in the batters box but on the mound as well.

The next baseball econometric frontier? Professor Sauer is examining the productivity of managerial in game decisions. I doubt the Managers are ready for his conclusions, Paul DePodesta couldn't convince Jim Tracy that bunting is a bad strategy.

FIELD OF SCHEMES

I can't remember where I read about this site but I bookmarked it in March and then the season started... but it's really good stuff, from a very liberal ( Village Voice ) perspective, on all the crooked shit that goes on building stadia ( I always thought the plural was stadiums, but Field of Schemes says stadia ) in the US. As you would anticipate from the Village Voice - and as the blog title indicates - the author Neil deMause does not treat his subjects ( leagues, owners, politicians ) with respect ( not that they deserve any ), in fact he's pretty much contemptuous of them all. I can abide by the editorializing because I enjoy his reporting, it's very thorough and well researched.

Recent subjects on Field of Schemes include the screwing over of NYC residents vis a vis the construction of the new Yankees Stadium as well as Congressional hearings on public stadium funding. If you think this wisecrack is funny - I do - you'll enjoy Field of Schemes. "....Committee on Oversight and Government Reform Subcommittee on Domestic Policy takes on the question of whether sports facilities "divert public funds from critical public infrastructure." (Otherwise known as the "Did the Twins make the I-35 bridge fall down?" question.)"

In addition to the new Yankee Stadium, what I hope to bone up on this winter at Field of Schemes are the politics of stadium construction in:

NYC: Citifield - the new Mets stadium as well as the as yet unnamed Giants / Jets facility.

Miami: Will a new baseball stadium be built? When Charlie Christ succeeded Jeb Bush the consensus amongst the chattering classes was that this was a big boost for those ( The Marlins ) wanting to spend tax dollars on a new baseball stadium. Well, 07 ends soon and still nothing has happened. I say never underestimate Bud Selig in these matters.

Fremont / Oakland: Lewis Wolff wants a new baseball stadium for the A's, which if you believe the hype is gonna be super hi tech and as is the trend, is part of a much larger real estate play. ( I don't really know what a real estate play is, but...). Much larger as in 200 acres and $1.8 billion. I think the baseball stadium is more about influencing public opinion in favor of the development than say, a baseball stadium.

I suspect Field of Schemes will clarify all of this for me this winter.

From the basement September 09

2007-09-09T12:46:00.000-04:00

Baseball exists only in the basement again, Triple A ended here forever September 03. Great news for me though, Indy Ball could be on it's way! The Can Am League appears genuinely interested in fielding a team here. The chatter is that baseball legend & Can Am League Commissioner / franchise owner Miles Wolff will be in town next week. Wolff's most notable accomplishments are starting Independent pro baseball in 1993 with the formation of the Northern League. 8 million + attended Independent League games this season. As well, Wolff was owner & publisher of Baseball America for 18 years. Good luck to Mr. Wolff in bringing the Can Am League to my commmunity.

The Rule IV Draft

I blogged this winter about the changes to the Rule IV draft that went into effect this past June. The prevailing wisdom amongst the chattering classes was that the newly imposed signing deadline of August 15, combined with compensation for teams failing to sign their picks would better position the owners in negotiations with the players. As well, MLB - namely Selig's office - ratcheded up already existing pressures on the teams to adhere to recommended " draft slot" bonuses that were 10% lower than previous.

Post signing deadline, there has been unanimity in the baseball media that MLB failed in it's attempt to reduce the amount of money doled out to the draftees. From Baseball America: "There were 184 picks in the first five rounds in 2007, and 171 of them signed, receiving an average bonus of $685,328. Last year, 179 of the first 184 picks agreed to terms, getting an average bonus of $662,531. So despite the 10 percent reduction in slots, the bonuses rose 3 percent." From Sports Business Journal V. 10 No. 17, "Overall average signing bonuses for 2007 first-round draft picks hit their highest mark in five years, at nearly $2.1 million...". I engaged in some Web chatter on Shysterball adding my voice to the others who perceived MLB's manouevering on this issue as ineffective and irrelevant. At the recently concluded owner's meetings it was widely reported that Selig admonished the owners for not adhering to his office's recommended slots. To boot, the league's efforts to control signing bonuses also lead to speculation about collusion ( a dreadful word amongst baseball fans ). In fact the PA is busy gathering evidence from agents re. collusion.

In light of all this I was planning on writing a little rant about the owners reverting to their former incompetent ways of the 80's, opening themselves to accusations of collusion while not even managing to lower their costs. Well, not so soon, there is a dissenting voice about what transpired this past Rule IV draft - the universally reviled Scott Boras. Boras disagrees with the baseball media that the changes to the draft were ineffective in reducing bonuses. " The deadline worked dramatically to keep values down...The kids taken in the third or fourth round, they can't afford to go to college on a partial scholarship. So the teams just said, 'I am going to give you this.'"

In a larger context, Boras also has some interesting - I think excellent - ideas for the Rule IV draft.

The biggest problem with the draft as it currently exists, is that it is an auction, not a draft. I.E. The 27th pick in this years "draft", Ricky Porcello, received arguably the best deal of any player drafted ( $7.3 million , net present value - whatever that means - $6.49 million ). The purpose of amateur drafts is to assist in creating competitive balance, the worst teams have first crack at the best amateurs. But because the Rule IV draft is an auction, that isn't the case in MLB. MLB has also failed to do what the other "ball & stick" leagues have done with their drafts, namely using them as a platform to promote their product / game. The NFL and the NBA have both done masterful jobs of transforming their drafts into major media events. This past draft MLB and ESPN endeavored for the first time to do the same, producing a "draft day" show, I don't think anybody noticed or cared. There will always be scant interest in the draft - no matter how slick the ESPN / MLB production - because of some fundamentals, The principal problem and not one that MLB can fix, is that these amateurs have no profile, they are anonymous to all fans save the super hardcore who follow the draft arcania in Baseball America. Amateur ballplayers, unlike "amateur" football & basketball players, don't have their games broadcast to enormous TV audiences. The other principal problem in generating interest in the draft is that small / mid market teams traditionally don't draft the best talent available to them ( although that is changing ), due to "signability" concerns. I.E. Matt Bush. Baseball fans know this and resultingly it limits their interest in who their team picks. Their team is often not picking the best player, but the best player they can afford. Boras ( he is not alone ) thinks that allowing the trading of draft picks ( presently not allowed ) would generate more interest in the draft. "The sad news about the draft is...the teams who covet the best talent will not get it. For example, Porcello, Brackman, Wieters - largely teams are not getting access to them. The value of those players exceed what the teams want to spend in the draft." Boras is right that allowing the trading of picks would solve this problem. "The clubs would know they may not be able to afford the player, but they could sign him and trade him for value." Fans in small / mid markets would have more interest in the draft if that was the case. Draft day would be entertaining, fans would enjoy the speculation concerning who they could acquire for "unsignable Mr. X". This would also be helpful in achieving more competitive balance ( although I don't know how much more of that I can stand in the NL, but I digress ),

Jim Callis reports that some small / mid market teams are changing course and trying to compete with the big boys in the Rule IV draft. "The Yankees aggressively signed players in last year's draft, and did so again, spending $7,432,500 in the first 10 rounds. But the Orioles ($7,672,500) and Nationals ($7,619,300) outspent them there, and the Tigers ($7,305,000), Devil Rays ($7,172,000) and Giants ($7,027,000) came close." Time will tell how effective this strategy is...on the one hand nobody but the Yanks ( and soon the Mets ) can carry a $200 million dollar payroll so why not try and compete with them on acquiring amateur talent? On the other hand, even after everybody drank the Moneyball Kool Aid, drafting ballplayers remains a crapshoot - even for the Yankees. Does anybody remember Drew Henson, Brien Taylor?

Having said all that the Rule IV draft is increasingly less meaningful. More and more of the "muscle" ( as William Rhoden would refer to it ) is being recruited from outside the US, where it is not subject to the draft ( the owners like that, the draft is inflationary, see my Jackie Robinson Day schpiel ).

Will the PA bring charges of collusion? I say yes. Will MLB allow trading of draft picks? Yes again but not unitl the expiration of the CBA in 2011. ( Will we say 11 by then? )

From the basement August 26

2007-08-26T15:35:00.000-04:00

Ottawa Lynx

I saw Lynx GM Kyle Bostwick on the TV news during the last homestand and he flatly refuses to admit that the franchise is moving after this season. He won't say that it's not moving, only that they aren't certain. In fairness to Mr. Bostwick he takes his marching orders from Vermont based owner Ray Pecor. Why won't Mr. Pecor admit that this is it? The only plausible theory that I can come up with is that an admittance that they are leaving would weaken their position in their $10 million lawsuit with the city over the parking situation at the Stadium. ( Mr. Pecor publicy states otherwise but I suspect he knew Triple A was doomed here long before the city reduced the amount of parking spots at the Stadium, but this dispute is about breach of contract and not the viablility of the business ).

The evidence that the franchise is moving to Allentown / Lehigh Valley PA next season is overwhelming. In August of last year IL Commissioner Randy Mobley announced "The board of directors approved action of the Ottawa club to relocate to Allentown in 2008, and the partial sale of the right to operate the franchise currently controlled by Ray Pecor to Finley and Stein," Construction of a stadium is well under way in suburban Allentown PA, sponsorship deals ( including stadium naming rights to Coca Cola ) have been finalized, 2,000 season tickets sold, logo unveiled. I believe Mr. Bostwick when he says that there remain i's to be dotted and t's to be crossed but I have to think that he knows it's over, he's not allowed to voice that however.

There will be a spate of Lynx retrospectives in the Ottawa media next week, what with the last homestand ever starting on Wednesday. The question that will be asked repeatedly is why did Triple A fail in this market? Not only did it fail but the fortunes of the franchise varied drastically over it's 15 years here. In 93, the Lynx inaugural season, they set an IL season attendance record averaging 9772 per game. This season the Lynx are last in attendance, as has been the case for many years, averaging 1736 per game. Not only are they last in the IL in attendance , but the team 2nd last has easily more than double the Lynx at 4363.

So what happened? Like everything else, it's not one thing, but a combination of things. Let's look at the baseball climate in Canada in 1993. The Toronto Blue Jays had just won their 2nd consecutive World Series, Skydome was wondrous and everyone was on the baseball bandwagon. Since, the Jays have regressed to mediocrity and interest outside of the GTA is scant. At the same time, the MLB 94 strike was most detrimental to the Expos, who were in 1st place at the time and dismantled their winning team subsequently. The Ottawa market, obviously loyal to the Expos was embittered. Baseball lost it's allure, not only in Ottawa but in Western Canada where eventually Triple A franchises left Calgary, Edmonton & Vancouver in the late 90's and early 00's.

Locally there were significant changes in the pro sports landscape during the Lynx lifetime. In 93, the Lynx inaugural season, the NHL Sens were an awful team, in the midst of a streak of 4 consecutive last in the league seasons. The CFL team was a catastrophe on and off the field, on their way to folding after the 96 season. The Lynx timing was fortuitous, they fielded competitive teams making the playoffs in 93 and winning the IL championship in 95. Ottawa sports fans, desperate for a winning team latched on to the Lynx. Well things change, shit happens. The Sens got a lot better, making the playoffs in 97 and have not finished out of the playoffs since. The Sens success ( give them credit, 10 consecutive playoff appearances is a remarkable achievement ) in a natural hockey market drastically lowered the profile of the Lynx. Ottawa became all Sens all the time. I.E. The recent unveiling of the new Sens uniforms / logo - during peak baseball season - generated more interest and publicity than anything the Lynx have done all season, on or off the field.

Baseball wasn't trendy anymore, the Jays were mediocre, the Expos got screwed, the Sens were great, it was easy to forget about Triple A. As attendance dwindled to embarrassingly low numbers, going to the Lynx lost all caché. Nothing draws a crowd like a crowd and conversely, if nobody else is going why should I?

So it's over September 03, after 15 seasons. I remember going to the Ottawa Nepean Sports Club ( the one and only time ) to pony up some cash, sign a petition supporting pro ball in Ottawa and walk away with some "bring Triple A to Ottawa" swag which I wore proudly. I called my Councillor to voice my support for the construction of the Stadium ( the one and only time in the 25 + years that I've lived here that I called my Councillor ). I've frozen my ass off many April nites ( afternoons for that matter ), waited out rain delays, took my kids in strollers and baby seats, went when the place was full and went when it was empty. Obviously I'll miss it and not in some romanticized W.P. Kinsella kind of way. I'll miss the baseball, the skill, athleticism, strategy, gamesmanship, I like the sport. I'll miss my city being part of Pro Ball, seeing prospects live before I see them on TV, seeing vets on the way down, seeing who's in the IL. I'm a geek.

ARENA BASEBALL

The "Arena Baseball" era has peaked and is in decline. The degree to which HR continue to decline remains to be seen.

According to fellow local blogger Tao of Stieb , HR's in the AL are down this season from 1.123 per team / per game in 06 to .975 this season. That's substantial. Why are HR down? I attribute it to less bulk / juice in the game, brought about by testing, Radomski, Mitchell, Grimsley, BALCO etc. It's a whole different ballgame, so to speak, from the recent era of no testing. It could be that MLB has deadened the ball as well or likely a combination of the two factors. The history of MLB`s manipulating HR and scoring upward and downward is long documented and this is the latest adjustment. MLB wants to move the chattering classes ( principally the baseball press ) away from the HR / steroids debate and on to something more positive.

Rumors are widespread in the media ( no doubt emanating from MLB ) that George Mitchell will release his report sooner than later. Once all the spinning is complete ( it will be prolonged and sickening ) the owners and the players will get down to the brass tacks of what kind of a game they want going forward. No doubt there will be policy up the ying yang ( fans like policies, it sounds smart & serious, critics of MLB enjoy pointing out that the NFL had a steroids "policy" well in advance of MLB. I guess that's why there's no juice in the NFL, I digress...). But to what degree do they want the juice out of the game? I and many others have said it long & loud, the "Arena Baseball" era of Sosa, Bonds & McGwire put a lot of money in a lot of pockets. Bigger, faster, stronger players make for a more entertaining spectacle. How far do both parties really want to turn back the clock?. Business is booming. Also, steroids help players recover from injuries more quickly. Owners need the talent on the field, not in the trainer's room. HR`s will continue to decline but the genie is out of the bottle, chicks and guys dig the longball and the clock will not be turned back too, too far.

SCALPING

I like scalping, always have. I've scalped at Exhibition Stadium, Montreal Forum, Olympic Stadium, Skydome ( I've not yet been to Rogers Centre ), Yankee Stadium, Fenway Park & Soldier Field.

Scalping has undergone a lot of changes recently. It's gone digital and corporate. Corporations don't call it scalping ( that's too ugly ), they call it "Secondary Ticketing". Smaller entrepeneurs like Stub Hub ( since purchased by E Bay ) and Razor Gator to name a few, beat the big boys to the punch but the teams and leagues are all over it now. The digital scalpers provided an easy and lucrative opportunity for season ticket holders to, well, scalp. The teams and leagues spent some time considering whether or not to be associated with it and now they're "all in". There is just too much money to be made to be concerned about the optics of it. MLB just announced a 5 year deal with Stub Hub / E Bay "designating the secondary-ticketing company as the official on-line ticket reseller of MLB.com and the 30 clubs." There's certain to be a pissing match over this between big and small market owners over how the dough is divvyed up.

The teams also get really horny about the marketing opportunities that electronic - secondary ticketing provides. Data, data and more friggin data. The teams now know in great detail who is looking for tickets, to what games, how many, in what section.....the marketing people love it.

Got any ticket stubs in your scrapbook? ( I don't, too cynical for sentiment ) Well that's coming to an end as well. Ticketing, as the MBA / Corprate types call it, is going paperless, it is the present and the future. Tickets are being sent in the form of bar codes to cell phones and in turn scanned at the stadium. I don't own a cell phone....they'll still take my money.

MIT Sloan Sports Business Conference

I'm a geek, but to borrow from a friend of mine, these folks, recently gathered at MIT, by comparison make me appear uninteresed in baseball. I only started to scan read this article about "proprietary baseball data" amongst other things. I'm aware that this sort of thing goes on, but if you want a glimpse into how deep the baseball geekdom can go into statistical arcania, check it out. Having said that, I'm starting to change my mind on the ability of the math geeks to measure fielding, which is the subject of this link.

From the basement August 12

2007-08-12T13:41:00.000-04:00

Been out of town for practically the past 2 weeks. We returned from camping, washed some clothes, went to a baseball game ( thanks a lot to Carl Kiffner for hosting us in his box ), packed up the plantation again and headed for a cottage. My baseball viewing was limited to a few Jays games on CBC the holiday weekend ( no cable at the cottage ) and I gave up listening to the radio broadcasts because the reception was crap. Thankfully there were boxscores in the daily paper and most notably I had the opportunity to read John Helyar's "Lords of the Realm ".

LORDS OF THE REALM

This book is and isn't what I had anticipated. I read this book because the eminence grise of the baseball economics world, Andrew Zimbalist, references it in his book " In the Best Interests of the Game? The Revolutionary Reign of Bud Selig ". If Mr. Zimbalist thinks it worthwhile I am automatically sold.

I assumed that due to Mr. Zimbalist's regard for this book that it would be heavy on the numbers but it isn't. Lords of the Realm is an exhaustive ( 600 + pgs ) look at the formation of the MLBPA and the subsequent labor battles with MLB up to the 94 strike. The focus is as much on the internecine battles amongst the owners during this era as it is on the aforementioned battles between the PA and MLB. Helyar is a former WSJ & Fortune reporter whose beat was pro sports, he knows the turf. He is slumming now at ESPN writing features. His piece on the diminishing number of African Americans in MLB was one of the most thorough I read on the subject and he also had an excellent piece on steroid abuse amongst players in the Dominican Republic this past winter.

The book does cover the changing economics of the industry over this time frame as well as the many legal battles that occurred during this era but it is primarily a detailed indictment of the owners or as Helyar refers to them, "The Lords". Helyar is an unabashed supporter of the players. In his estimation Marvin Miller is the great emancipator and the owners are the plantation owners. He gets a sympathetic ear from me, I have always been in the players' corner on labor matters but even I found his take excessively pro union. ( Zimbalist, Roger Noll & Helyar are all left wing, that's ok, they're exceedingly well informed but where are the dissenting opinions? I'd like to read them...I digress...)

The book also covers the reigns of the Commissioners of this era, Kuhn, Ueberroth, Giamatti, Vincent & Selig ( Selig was the de facto Commissioner post Vincent ), all are portrayed as incompetent and egotistical in varying degrees.

All in all the book is a very entertaining read. It is not a dense, numbers laden tome a la Zimbalist ( i.e. there is no mention of gini coefficients or regression analyses ) but simply an entertaining story populated with heros ( i.e. Miller, Dick Moss, Donald Fehr, Messersmith, Simmons, Hunter, Flood ) and villians ( too numerous but i.e. Walter O'Malley, Gussie Busch, George Steinbrenner) and zany characters ( i.e. Charlie Finley, Roy Hofheinz, Ted Turner, Jerry Kapstein, Howard Spira ).

Read it if you're a geek, you will be well entertained.

BARRY BONDS

755 & 756 were hit while I was void of cable TV and Internet. I'm happy it happened when it did, I missed the great gobs of contrived outrage and moral rectitude that I'm certain spewed forth afterward. Yes he's dirty ( duh ) but get in line. Yes he's an asshole but again get in line. He is the greatest player of the past 20 years. Nonetheless he's gonna get his ass nailed to the wall. George Mitchell will soon be spinning for Bud Selig in every paper and on every TV News broadcast in the US and the Grand Jury investigating perjury charges against Bonds was extended. Radomski, Grimsley, the "anonymous" test results from 03, all this and more is forthcoming and only the proverbial pound of Bonds' flesh will satisfy the moralistic chattering classes...but don't get me started...the owners didn't know...my ass...but don't get me started...McGwire, the All American, caucasian in the extreme, & his "just happy to be here" flag waving, second banana, Garrett Morris like caricature of a black man, Sammy Sosa got free passes from the press and the fans in 98 because it represented a view of their country they enjoyed.....but an arrogant, ungrateful African American.....they don't like that...but don't get me started...I blogged it all this past winter...

OTTAWA LYNX

I checked the schedule this AM and we're down to 2 homestands and it's over. 15 years of Triple A in my hometown comes to an end Sept 03. The chatter about the Can Am League coming to town has dissipated, more accurately disappeared, I thought all along that Miles Wolff was floating a trial balloon to gauge interest ( there was none amongst anybody I spoke to save for a few other geeks ). At this point I think the crux of the matter is what the city wants to do with the property. My money is on big box, I strongly hope I am wrong.

SHYSTERBALL

I read about Shysterball on Rob Neyer's ESPN blog and had some fun correspondence subsequently with the blogger, Craig Calcatterra. Craig's encouragement kick started me to post something during the All Star break and this AM I noticed that he was generous enough to add my blog to his list of links. Thanks Craig, this post is dedicated to you, I wouldn't have bothered had I not visited your blog today. How does a guy named Calcattera know from Yiddish? For that matter how does a guy named Toms? Oy!

From the basement July 11 07

2007-07-11T22:00:00.000-04:00

No baseball in the basement or outside the basement since Sunday, other than with the kids in the park. No boxscores plus I have zero interest in the Home Run Derby and All Star Game and as a result I have the oppportunity to catch up on some reading that I neglect during the season, i.e. Maury Brown. As well there is time to waste blogging about baseball.

BARRY BONDS

Bonds is steroids is Bonds in the eyes of the fans. I blogged a lot about Bonds during the offseason and I believe I am being proven correct on at least 1 point, which is only the chattering classes care about this matter. To quote Maury Brown "Revenues are at an all-time high, as are attendance figures.....". Despite this I continue to read that steroids presents a big problem for MLB. Once again, NO IT DOESN'T! If the rank & file fan was pissed about the players being juiced they would find alternate sources of entertainment, but they are coming in droves which indicates that they don't care. Only the geekdom care about George Mitchell, Kirk Radomski, Troy Ellerman et. al but we generate a lot of noise about it. Ask a fan at a game who any of the aforementioned are and you'll get a blank stare.

BLUE JAYS

I am a Jay fan albeit a very dispassionate one. My interest in baseball varys not one iota with the fortunes of the Toronto club but it is the club I follow most closely so...

43-44 at the break. Expectations were higher for the Jays this season than in many years, with justification. In all likelihood they will win 80 - 86 games and obviously not contend for a playoff berth. Gibbons is certainly gone, it's always easy to scapegoat the Manager, and then what...?

What will Rogers do? Maintain payroll or slash and burn? If they opt for the latter it is difficult to see Godcciardi sticking around, Ricciardi has already been down that road once. With the drastic increase in value of the Cdn dollar the Jays bottom line certainly has to be better than it has been in years. Nonetheless Rogers could conclude that the Jays would be more profitable with a small payroll. In this socialist era of MLB it can be more profitable to field a bad team as opposed to a competitive one. There is a lot of Revenue Sharing / Luxury Tax money available for low revenue teams. According to Forbes many of the most profitable teams are low revenue / low payroll. Stanford economist Roger Noll, amongst others, believes that low revenue teams are rewarded for making their teams weaker. As an example, the Royals last season received $32 million in revenue sharing, double what they recieved in 02 but yet their payroll has increased only 6% over the same time period. Meanwhile the Royals reported a profit of $10 million last season.

Fans in small markets appear to be finally realizing that the reason their team consistently stinks is likely because their owner wants it that way. There was recently a minor protest by Pirates fans against their ownership. The fans feel that they were hoodwinked by the Pirates ownership into believing that if a publicly funded stadium was built ( which it was, PNC Park ) that the additional revenues generated by the new stadium would result in an investment in a more competitive team, meaning simply better and more expensive players. The protest flopped but it has raised the profile of allegations that have been afloat for awhile, namely that the Pirates have been using monies received from MLB to pay down team debt in order to better position the club for a sale as opposed to using it to field a competitive team. Time will tell how effective the new CBA is in resolving this problem of low revenue teams pocketing money from larger markets to ostensibly assist in creating "competitive balance". In fact it was the key issue in the last negotiations. Donald Fehr, in a recent speech to the Sports Lawyers Association, was quoted as "The marginal tax rate on a revenue-sharing payer under the last agreement was 40%, the marginal tax rate on a receving club was actually higher than that, it was 48 percent." "We were able by moving a lot of the revenue-sharing money into the central fund...to lower that tax rate to 31 percent for both revenue-sharing payers and revenue-sharing receivers." Economist Andrew Zimbalist was employed by the owners to help resolve this problem, which he refers to as "the cliff", which if I understand him correctly is the point where it is more profitable to be shit than to be good.

Lastly on the long term for the Jays, with the impending sale of the Cubs they will be the last team in MLB owned by a Media conglomerate. ( Liberty Media is expected to flip the Braves in a few years, that deal is about stock swaps with Time Warner and tax planning / avoidance, the baseball team is a tiny part of the equation ). But not long ago it was all the rage in MLB, ownership of teams by the likes of News Corp. ( Dodgers ), Disney ( Angels ) and Time Warner ( Braves ). What happened? To quote from Sports Business Journal, " The teams became lost in large companies and became headaches from both an operational standpoint and from a public relations perspective." Will Rogers buck the trend? Did Ted Rogers boost the payroll in recent seasons simply because he was tired of being ridiculed by his buddies for fielding a middling team ( as has been speculated )? If his personal interest in his ball team wanes or disappears there could be big changes afoot.

OTTAWA LYNX

Of most significance to me this baseball season is that I will be losing pro ball in my hometown and I will miss it. According to Baseball America business is booming in Lehigh Valley PA where our hometown franchise is relocating and the team hasn't even taken the field. You can read it here.

The Lynx are last in the IL and the remainder of the year doesn't look promising as the parent club Phillies don't seem interested in fielding a competitive club here and really who can blame them? In affiliated ball there is typically incentive for the parent team to keep the franchise owner happy. Given the lame duck position of the Lynx owner the Phillies are absent that incentive, The evidence that the Phillies are neglecting their Triple A team is their failure to replace a nucleus of veteran "4A" type players who have left the team since the beginning of the season. P Brian Mazzone plus OF's Ron Calloway and Lou Collier started the year here and either retired or went to Korea to ply their trade. As well AAA vet C/1B/3B Chris Coste (recently promoted to Philadelphia ) has played most of the year in AA instead of here ( he played briefly here at the beginning of the season ). Contrary to most hoser opinion I've heard over the years here, these are the type of players you win with at this level, not prospects. Triple A is a veteran league. What I really wonder and will never know is if the aforementioned 4 veterans stopped playing here because they tired of the miniscule crowds and overwhelming disinterest. The Phillies have not replaced these "4A" vets with players of the same experience / skill level. Are the Phillies trying to find "4A" players to play here and the guys won't come because of the situation or are they simply saving some pocket change on payroll because they are leaving town?

Anyway, it hasn't impacted on my level of interest in the product, the ball is still top notch and hey, I'm a geek.

I doubt Indy ball will come here ( I hope I'm wrong ) but I think prospective owners would conclude there would be no more interest in that product than in Triple A, we simply don't like baseball here. BTW, anybody misinformed enough to think that Indy ball is crap should check out the Minor League Transactions in Baseball America from a few weeks back. Lots of teams are signing players out of Indy leagues and it happens every year. In fact 2 of the Lynx stronger performers this season, 1B/DH Gary Burnham & P Charlie Weatherby are former Indy players.

NAMING RIGHTS

Stadium naming rights have been a cash cow for pro sports but thankfully this trend may be dying. I think we can all agree that enough stadiums and arenas are presently named after banks. 2 NYU professors, Robert Boland and Lee Igel foresee an end or at least a dramatic delcine in naming rights deals. According to the professors, due to mergers, tight markets and bankruptcies, many of these deals don't "run to their contractual terms". Resultingly the bank / corporation that buys the rights after the first guy has gone belly up, buy it for a fraction of the cost of what the first guy paid. The Rangers lost Ameriquest as the naming sponsor for their ballpark and according to owner Tom Hicks he won't sell the rights again, he would prefer to keep the name to promote his team. I'm a geek and I can't even keep track of all the current stadium names. I.E. I've seen the A's play in Oakland and I would have to guess at what the name of the stadium was at that time, it has changed so frequently. Enough.

TV RATINGS

I have thought for the past handful of years that TV ratings for pro sports are grossly overreported. Every year the TV ratings for the World Series decline and I read the resulting misinformed opinions that baseball is declining in popularity, meanwhile as mentioned, business is fantastic. Well, SBJ just published a feature on this very subject and they confirm what I already knew. TV ratings are down for everything, because we have 500 channels now instead of 3 or 4 ( I'm old ) and has anybody heard of the Internet or video games? Sports is a more valuable TV property than ever because it has performed much more strongly in comparison to the other forms of TV entertainment during this era of declining TV ratings. Sports is also DVR proof which obviously makes it appealing to advertisers. As well, just because the ratings are down doesn't mean fewer fans are watching, it does mean that the market is more fragmented. The important number is not the rating but how many people total are watching. From SBJ, "The network's push toward viewers makes sense, since the increased number of games on television has created a growing base of sports fans.....Citing the ESPN Sports Poll, Bulgrin ( Artie Bulgrin, ESPN/ ABC Sports, senior VP, research, sales development) says 219 million people considered themselves sports fans in the United States in 2006, compared with 186 million 10 years earlier." From the same article a quote from David Poltrack, CBS's chief research officer, "The average ratings have held up remarkably well because of what you normally would expect to be the dilution that might come about."

Earlier this evening I saw this headline on the Globe & Mail website "MLB All-Star ratings decline". Geez, that ain't good. If you bother to read the brief AP article perhaps the key bit of information is the last sentence. "The game and pregame show averaged a 7.9/14, giving Fox the highest-rated night of prime time on any network since its "American Idol" finale on May 23."

I SEE DEAD PITCHERS

I know this isn't timely anymore, but I typed it a few months ago so what the hell...

Sunday morning April 29 and I'm doin what I do during baseball season, reading the boxscores. I'm reading the Cubs / Cards boxscore, ( the Cards got thumped again ) and I notice that Josh Hancock pitched 3 innings of relief. I wondered to myself if he would be put in the rotation at some point given the Cardinals problems with their starting pitching. I follow it all, but Hancock's name always caught my eye because I remember seeing him pitch here in the IL as a PawSox and he threw in the low 90's ( I often used to sit in view of the guns ). Later that season I recall mentioning his name to a scout ( maybe Vance Lovelace ) and that this guy threw fairly hard. Anyway, that all ran through my mind for a few seconds and I plowed onward through the "little words" as my wife condescendingly refers to them. A handful of hours later I am at Lynx Stadium for that afternoon's Triple A game and before the National Anthems the PA announcer asks for a moment of silence for Josh Hancock and I thought geez that's a coincidence.....

Steve Bechler died February 17, 2003 at the age of 23. Bechler died of heatstroke during an Orioles spring training workout. His death was much publicized because death during spring training is unusual ( well, on the field, perhaps not in the stands ) and his consumption of a weight loss drug containing ephedrine was controversial. I saw Bechler pitch here late in the 02 season ( I can't find the date ) and I distinctly recall asking fellow geek Bob Wormington during the game what he thought of Bechler's prospects of making it to the bigs. I remember wondering upon hearing of his death if I had seen his last start ever.

On July 20, 1999 ( this date I did find ) I attended the A's vs Rockies game in Oakland, courtesy of Enron ( that's another story ). Daryl Kile started the game for the Rockies and as I was seated a few rows from the field down the first base line I had a superb view of him as he strode from the bullpen into the dugout prior to the beginning of the game. A heart attack killed Kile on June 22, 2002 at the age of 33.

I understand a whole lot of people in St. Louis have seen both Josh Hancock and Daryl Kile pitch. But I'm questioning if I haven't seen an inordinate amount of dead pitchers for a guy who lives in Ottawa Canada?

So the All Star break is over, tomorrow morning it's probable pitchers, then the games later in the day, boxscores, stats, standings, transactions, rumors, prospects, Triple A team in town tomorrow for 4 game homestand, gotta get out to a game.......

From the basement April 24 07

2007-04-24T08:41:00.000-04:00

Baseball, baseball, baseball and more goddamn baseball. I'm watching a lot of freakin baseball. I resolved yesterday to stop trying to watch evening West Coast games until the last out. ( It was easy not to watch last nite, we had no electricity ) I always fall asleep before the finish. I intentionally don't lay down because if I do I know I'll fall asleep instantly. Instead I fall asleep sitting up, wake up at 2, fall over, back to sleep, wake up again at 5 and go to bed. And the boxscores....oy the boxscores, always with the boxscores. I have to read them all, literally, and in the proper chronology at that. The digital boxscores are the best. With a few double clicks you can access all the geek minutiae that you want. If you have to know who Chase Wright, Jamie Vermilyea & Zach McClellan are and where Wes Obermueller pitched last year, you are a geek.

I'm glad I didn't subscribe to the MLB / EI out of market package ( I had considered it ), I can't watch all the baseball I get as it is. Who are the subscribers to this package? If you believe all the chatter on the web about this ( and there was an overabundance this winter / spring because of the DirecTV deal ) the subscribers are hardcore fans of " out of market " teams, i.e. New Englanders who moved to other parts of the US but remain part of "The Nation." My theory is that a lot of these subscribers are Fantasy / Roto geeks. The Fantasy guys don't follow a "team" per se, they follow "their" team(s) ( lots of these guys play in multiple leagues ). These guys don't want to wait for the boxscores ( and in this era of the web, they are available pretty damn quick ), they want to see their players AB's / starts / relief appearances as they happen. How else do you explain the presence of these packages where you can view multiple games simultaneously? ( MLBTV has the same product ) You cannot watch 6 baseball games simultaneously but you can cherry pick the parts of those 6 games you want to see, i.e. when "your" players are hittin or throwin or stealin. When marketers talk about "avidity" levels I think this is the sort of behavior they're referencing.

TRIPLE A IS BACK

I'm very happy that our Triple A team has completed their first homestand of the season. My baseball viewing isn't limited to TV anymore. So nice to watch the game live. I notice so much more when I'm there, positioning, baserunning, pitch sequences. I also pay closer attention to the count and the situation, watching on TV can make you lazy. It's just plain nice to be outside, it's a long winter here in Canada's capital.

I saw most of 3 different games of the Lynx 6 game homestand and they appear as advertised. The pitching looks deep ( they had to release veteran Justin Miller because they had too many arms ) and they will play outstanding defense. The outfield defense in particular is a pleasure to watch, in 2 of the 3 games I saw they started 3 outfielders (Rushford, Roberson & Calloway) who can all play CF. The defence up the middle is exceptional as well with Sandoval at SS & Thurston at 2B. Thurston is probably the Lynx best everyday player, an IL All Star last season, he made at least a handful of outstanding plays in the games I saw. Jason Jaramillo looks very athletic behind the plate. The Lynx currently lack a HR hitter and as evidenced in the games I've seen there will be a lot of " little ball " played by the home side. As I've said before the most important factor in winning at Triple A is the health of the parent team. At this juncture the Phillies are healthy, a handful of injuries though and the roster gets thin in a hurry here.

I'm curious to see what the Phillies plans are for J.D. Durbin, starter or reliever? I suspect he'll pitch in relief, at least initially to get "stretched out", as he hasn't been pitching while waiting to clear waivers, everywhere it seems, since being "designated" by the Twins. The Phillies made a dramatic and unexpected move recently when they put Myers in the pen to set up Gordon. I think Durbin's power arm, like Myers', is what they need in middle relief, particularly in their bandbox ballpark.

I enjoy the IL as much to see the visiting teams as the home team. Charlotte and Scranton were in town this homestand.

Notable amongst the Charlotte squad: RH Charlie Haeger ( who I saw in Game 2 of the homestand ), a knuckleballer who had a great 06 with Charlotte, 3.07 ERA in 170 IP, pitched 18 innings with the parent White Sox. The first 3 players on the Baseball America / White Sox Top 10 prospects list are in Charlotte. In descending order, OF Ryan Sweeney, 3B Josh Fields & RH Lance Broadway. See more on Sweeney & Fields below. Broadway is a starter who probably profiles as a middle reliever in the bigs. I sat near the radar guns during his start and as BA notes his fastball is average, it was high 80's during the start I saw. I think velocity matters, particulary at the big league level. Is RH Gavin Floyd still a prospect? Floyd is with Charlotte at present, he was acquired from the Phillies along with LH John Danks in the Freddy Garcia deal. I didn't see Floyd's start here but I did see him pitch last year with Scranton and he does have a power arm. I say he remains a prospect, power arms are the most valuable commodity in baseball, Floyd has one and at 24 he is too young to give up on. OF Luis Terrero is in Charlotte. Terrero was my favorite Lynx last year, he is an exceptional outfielder, good baserunner and pounded IL pitching last season posting a .927 OPS. Terrero has had chances in the bigs, 434 AB's, but didn't hit. He'll be 27 in May, too old to be a prospect but still has a legitimate shot at being a 4th outfielder in the bigs. Amongst the notable veterans that played were C Wiki Gonzalez, who started Game 3, Gonzalez has played parts of the last 7 seasons in the bigs primarlily with the Padres as a backup C. 37 year old Ernie Young also played, he is listed as an OF but certainly will see the bulk of his playing time at the DH position. Young has played parts of 8 seasons in the bigs amassing 796 AB's and hitting 27 HR. His best season was in 96 with the A's when he hit 19 HR in 462 AB. Young has played everywhere, including Japan.

The most notable player on the Scranton team is elite RH pitching prospect Philip Hughes, see more below. The Scranton staff also includes a few decent prospects. RH Tyler Clippard struck out 175 in 166 IP in Double A last season, he is in Triple A at the age of 22. Clippard is ranked #7 on the BA list of Yankees Top 10 prospects. RH Russ Ohlendorf was acquired from the D Backs in the offseason as part of the Randy Johnson deal. Ohlendorf put up decent numbers in Double A last year albeit as a 24 year old. As for position players, OF Bronson Sardinha got the attention of the chattering classes this spring and 3B Eric Duncan is starting the year in Triple A. Duncan was considered an elite power hitting 3B prospect as recently as a few years ago but has floundered. Still, Duncan won't be 23 until December and power often develops late. As for the vets, LH Ron Villone pitched in relief Sunday. Villone is 37 and has racked up 1027 IP in the bigs over the last 12 seasons. I remember seeing him pitch here years ago with Louisville. I'll be surprised if Villone isn't in the bigs at some point this year for the 13th consecutive season. Former Lynx C Raul Chavez, great arm when he caught here, is in Scranton. Chavez was signed by the Astros 17 years ago and has bounced around pro ball since, totalling 405 big league AB's over parts of 9 seasons.

LISTS

Baseball geeks like lists, Baseball America produces endless amounts of lists. So a first for this blog, some lists.

Top 10 prospects currently on IL rosters

1. Homer Bailey - Louisville. RH starter.

Elite prospect, power pitcher. He will turn 21 in May. Dominant at High A and AA last season. If you believe the hype he won't be in the IL for long, although he didn't get the raves this spring that he did last season.

2. Philip Hughes - Scranton. RH starter.

Pretty much a carbon copy of the above except he won't be 21 until June. Like Bailey he didn't impress this spring like he was expected to. Still the Yankees have sky high hopes for this kid. Very early #'s, 17 K / 4 BB / 16 IP. Just found out, Hughes will make his big league debut Thursday vs. the Jays, we'll see how long he stays in the Bronx once the Yankees rotation gets healthier. ( Will American Idle Carl Pavano ever be healthy? )

3. Adam Miller - Buffalo. RH starter.

Probably a notch below Bailey and Hughes but still is a front of the rotation prospect. A year older than Bailey and Hughes, 05 was somewhat of a wasted season due to arm trouble. Rebounded big in 06 putting up big numbers at AA. Since compiling this list sometime during the winter Miller's status has elevated. He was more impressive this spring than either of the 2 starters on this list above.

4. Matt Garza - Rochester. RH starter.

When I first compiled this list I didn't include Garza because I assumed he would start the year in Minnesota. Well he didn't, instead the Twins are going with veterans Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson in their rotation. The Twins have been questioned over this decision but the longer they can keep Garza in Triple A the longer they delay having to pay him the big bucks. Garza started 06 in High A and finished in the bigs. He dominated at each level except the big leagues but still his season was extremely impressive.

5. Josh Fields - Charlotte - 3rd base.

Nothing left to prove in the IL, he posted an .894 OPB last season as a 23 year old. However with Joe Crede at 3rd in Chicago there is no spot for Fields unless he moves to LF. Reports on Fields play in LF in Winter Ball were not encouraging and he played 3rd during Charlotte's recent 4 game series in Ottawa.

6. Joey Votto - Louisville - 1st base.

The next everyday Canadian player in the big leagues. Votto was MVP in his AA league last season racking up 46 doubles + 22 homers. Votto will play in the IL this season at 23, remember Cdn hitters usually mature late.

7. Jeff Niemann - Durham - RH starter.

First round pick in 04, received a 5 million plus deal, unfortunately he has had injury problems since. Got healthy enough to pitch 77 innings in AA last season and put up good numbers. At 6'9" / 280 lbs you have to think he has a high ceiling.

8. Ryan Sweeney - Charlotte - OF

Sweeney was impressive last season with Charlotte as a 21 yr old with an .802 OPS. He needs to develop power to play everyday in the bigs as a corner outfielder which given his young age could still happen. BA questions if he has the skills to play CF in the bigs.

9. Hayden Penn - Norfolk - RH starter

It's a mystery to me why he is not on the BA list of O's Top 10 prospects, perhaps he isn't eligible. Sure he's been rocked in 2 limited stints with the Orioles, totalling 58 IP, but he's still only 22 and struck out 85 in 87 2/3 IP last season with Ottawa. Young power arms are tough to find, as with a lot of pitchers Penn's biggest battle seems to be staying healthy.

10. Joel Guzman - Durham - OF? 1B? 3B?

Considered one of the best prospects in the game a few years ago, he has disappointed the past few seasons. Tampa Bay acquired him from the Dodgers in a deadline deal for Julio Lugo. He is still only 22, way too early to give up on a power hitter.

The following 3 players were part of my Top 10 IL prospects when I wrote it but they are all starting the season in Double A ( or they were in Double A a handful of days ago ), they should all be in the IL very soon.

1. Evan Longoria - Durham - 3rd base.

Third player taken in the 06 June draft. Played at 3 levels in his first season, finishing in Double A. Expected to be an everyday 3rd baseman in the bigs for many, many years.

2. Jacob Ellsbury - Pawtucket - CF.

The Red Sox drafted him in the 1st round in 05 and he has not disappointed. Played at High A and Double AA last season. The Red Sox hope Ellsbury can replace Johnny Damon both in CF and at the top of the order for years to come.

3. Jarrod Saltalamacchia - Richmond - C. A catcher who can hit. Not the hot prospect he was coming into the 06 season, but finished last season well.

Another 3 players not yet in the IL, but who could well be late in the season.

1. Andrew McCutchen - Indianapolis - CF. Elite prospect

2. Cameron Maybin - Toledo - CF. Ditto McCutchen

3. Andrew Miller - Toledo - LH starter.

Drafted in June, signed in August, pitching in Yankee Stadium same month. Power LH, could be really special.

If you're a Canadian Nationalist, a list of hosers in the IL.

Steve Green - Norfolk - RH reliever.

Has carved out a very fine Triple A career. Was on the mound for the final out when Canada beat the USA in the WBC.

Adam Stern - Norfolk - CF.

Took a step back last year but still a fine Triple A player. Also a hero in the WBC win over the US. Stern was with the O's very briefly this season when Corey Patterson was injured.

George Kottaras - Pawtucket - C.

Acquired from the Padres in a deadline deal for David Wells, played at AA & AAA last season. He will turn 23 in May, he is on the Red Sox 40 man.

John Axford - Scranton - RH.

I had never heard of this guy until a few days ago when Naete Sager brought him to my attention. Check out Naete's profile of John Axford here.

From the basement - Jackie Robinson Day - April 16 07

2007-04-17T00:03:00.000-04:00

Yesterday was Jackie Robinson day in MLB.

The culmination of MLB's media campaign this spring promoting Civil Rights was last evening's Dodgers game which was broadcast on ESPN. I intermittently watched a handful or perhaps several innings of the broadcast. It was an evening of African American civil rights nostalgia. A parade of great African American ballplayers, Hank Aaron, Don Newcombe, Frank Robinson, Dave Winfield & Joe Morgan, reminiscing and paying tribute to their hero # 42. Rachel Robinson, Mr. Robinson's widow was also featured prominently. As circumspect as I have been about MLB's motives behind this media campaign, I don't doubt for one moment the sincerity of the words and tributes of the aforementioned ballplayers and Mrs. Robinson as they relate to the importance to them of the American Civil Rights movement and the importance of Mr. Robinson in that movement.

African American NY Times reporter William Rhoden writes in his book Forty Million Dollar Slaves, " For many of us over fifty who were born in the United States, the idea of a player - any player - not knowing the story of Jackie Robinson is blasphemous. It's like not knowing about Rosa Parks, the Black Panthers, Martin Luther King, or the Montgomery, Alabama, bus boycotts. For people of my generation, the wide spectrum of black resistance and conflict are carved into our hearts. Those events remain so vivid, and represent such powerful emotional benchmarks in the ongoing struggle, that it is inconceivable to us that anyone could forget."

So, that's the easy part, the nice part, MLB at the forefront of the American Civil Rights movement, Branch Rickey, Mr. Robinson, Pee Wee Reese etc.

Now for the uneasy parts.

Why did MLB racially integrate the game when they did? Joe Morgan was grateful for having the opportunity to befriend former MLB Commissioner Happy Chandler. Mr. Morgan told us that Mr. Chandler integrated the game because it was the right thing to do, that he wouldn't have been able to live with himself had the opportunity been passed up ( I'm paraphrasing ). I'm a cynic and I'm more inclined to believe that the motive behind the racial integration of MLB was, as always, money. Again, from Forty Million Dollar Slaves, " By the late 1940's, Major League Baseball was hungry for new blood, fresh blood. Black blood. Negro League owners had failed to grasp the implications of Major League Baseball's manpower shortage, it's slumping attendance, and its desparate need for new talent, which the black leagues held in abundance." The racial integration of the game was great for business. White fans were presented with a better product, the black players raised the talent level and changed the nature of the game. The all white game had been a plodding "station to station" game, while the injection of black players introduced more speed, base stealing, daring baserunning etc. As well, the integration of MLB killed the Negro Leagues and their fans started clicking through the turnstiles at MLB games.

William Rhoden's opinions on Branch Rickey's motives for signing Jackie Robinson are hardly new or unique but they certainly are in the minority. What was promoted last evening in LA and on ESPN and in ballparks around North America ( we have to include Toronto ) was a vision of America and baseball's place in it, that probably never existed. I don't know for certain, I'm a 44 year old Canadian but as I've written before, this entire campaign is not meant to appeal to African Americans of any age. This feel good civil rights nostalgia appeals to the mainstream MLB fan, guys like me, white, middle aged and middle class. White guys who will feel enlightened and just and principled because they buy a # 42 official MLB jersey. White guys who want to feel hip and progressive because they like Spike Lee ( whom MLB has provided a very prominent role this entire campaign, including last evenings broadcast ). None of us old enough to remember when the game was integrated but eager to feel good that it was and chauvinistic enough about our game to think that it happened in our sport first because of heros, because baseball is good.

The parallel story to the MLB & Civil Rights campaign has been the story of the vanishing African American in MLB, on the field and in the stands. It was difficult to watch the crowd shots last evening and not look for black faces, I saw very few as usual. MLB and ESPN did not skirt the issue but nor did they get to the real roots of it. There was a lot of talk about MLB needing to reconnect with African American youth, going into their communities, about the importance of telling the Jackie Robinson story to these kids. MLB has been spinning this all spring, the Compton Academy, the RBI ( Reviving Baseball in Inner Cities ) program, the 2 day MLB & Civil Rights confab in Memphis, the first Jackie Robinson Society Community Recognition Award....Again, it's me, I think money is responsible for the change.

The numbers have been well documented in many articles this spring. In 1975 the percentage of African American players peaked at 27%, by 1995 it had declined to 19% and by last season or 05 ( I see conflicting reports ) it had sunk to 8.4%. It has been widely noted that 2 teams this season, Atlanta & Houston, have at present no African American players. ( According to the 05 US census 12.25 % of the US population is African American ). The popular arguments explaining the decline have been that baseball is expensive relative to other sports. I.E. Blacks can't afford to play. In order to play baseball you need the infrastructure of leagues, which have largely disappeared in "inner cities" due to "social" problems. In the "inner cities", basketball and football are more popular with kids. While I agree these are contributing factors, I think there are more fundamental, industry related explanations.

For starters, MLB faced less competition for African American athletes for many years because the other major sports in the US, basketball and football, integrated more slowly. For instance in the 1970's ( the peak period for African American players in MLB ) the percentage of black players in the NFL was in the 30% range, it is now 66%. In a nutshell, if you as an African American had the raw ability to play professional sports in the US, for many years MLB was the league you aspired to play in.

In 1965 MLB instituted an amateur draft of North American high school and college players. In 1965 there were few non American players in MLB. Since 1965 the industry, i.e. the teams, have learned that labor, i.e. players, are cheaper outside the US. Drafted North American players have leverage in negotiations, high school players can opt to go to college and re enter the draft later if they don't get the big cheque. High school players are more expensive to develop, i.e. train, they require years of tutelage and apprenticeship before they are major league ready. In Latin America, primarily the Dominican Republic, the muscle ( to borrow from William Rhoden ) is cheaper. Practically all teams have baseball "academies" in the Dominican Republic and many are / were ( there is the Chavez issue now ) making similar investments in Venezuela. It is estimated that teams spend $50 - $60 million annually on scouting and player development in Latin America. Even accounting for these investments, the labor is cheaper than in the domestic market. "Clubs do leverage their dollars much better if they develop a kid in a country not subject to the draft," said Jimmie Lee Solomon, MLB executive vice president for baseball operations, who is black. "Those decisions are purely business decisions, very pragmatic business decisions." From Chris Isidore CNNMoney.com "In addition, the relative poverty of some of the countries, such as the Dominican Republic, made it relatively cheap to sign many of the players, although those signing bonuses are rising in recent years. So the percentage of foreign born players has seen a steady climb, to 29 percent this year, nearly double their percentage in 1995." See Chris's article here. From an ESPN article by John Helyar, here, ( thanks Jeff Blair ) "William Forrester Jr., whose minority-oriented Richmond, Va., youth league has received all of $8,000 from RBI, and who has failed in efforts to get MLB to aid struggling HBCU baseball programs, believes it's pretty simple. Baseball's economics trump baseball's pieties. Bottom line: It's much cheaper to develop talent offshore, independent of the amateur draft." Says Mr. Forrester "They're just taking the big-business approach of getting the most bang for their buck and making more money," says Forrester, who finds it ironic that black players and fans deserted the Negro Leagues for MLB -- only to have MLB eventually desert them. "If I were in Jackie's shoes, I would wonder if I had been bamboozled." If you don't already know, HBCU means Historically Black Colleges & Universities.

The industry has undergone a change in draft strategy. High school players have proven to be a risky investment in comparison to college players. ( Although the player development geeks at Baseball America might tell you that a disproportinate percentage of star players come from the high school ranks, but I digress ) Again from chris Isidore "In 2005, the most recent year for which figures were available, only 35 percent of players drafted were high school players, down from 56 percent when the draft started. And only about a quarter of drafted high school players now sign with a team, compared to about 70 percent of college players who are drafted. In 1965, about half of drafted high school players signed, compared to 55 percent of college players who were drafted." So the Industry is looking more and more for domestic labor from the college ranks, but there are few African Americans playing college baseball. We all know that as a group, African Americans are more economically disadvantaged than non African Americans. So how do black athletes end up in college football and basketball factories ( sorry, programs ) ? Scholarships is the answer. Because college baseball is not a " revenue sport ", there are fewer scholarships available and as a result fewer African American players. More quotes from Jimmie Lee Solomon. " It takes a certain amount of economic resources for a baseball player to go to college and whites, on average, have higher incomes than blacks in the U.S. So for a black athlete that needs financial assistance to attend college, it makes more sense to try for a football or basketball scholarship. This is a big reason why college baseball teams have even a lower percentage of black players than does the major league, said Solomon." "A Division 1 football program can give out 85 scholarships, and baseball teams only 11.7," said Solomon. "If you're an African American kid and you need help to go to school, do the math."

With an increasing amount of their labor coming from outside the US, MLB has required, and obtained, the assistance of the US government. This article by African American Diane M Grassi delves into that aspect and is notable as well for it's scathing criticism of MLB and Congress. I blogged about this article in February, you can read the whole piece here. Some excerpts.

"....MLB speaks only in platitudes about diversity, bypassing the inner city and working class neighborhoods, seemingly looking for talent everywhere but there." ".....MLB has gotten an even bigger break from the federal government in a recent change in the Immigration & Nationality Act....Amended by the U.S. Congress in 2006 and signed into law on December 22, 2006 by President George W. Bush, it is known as the “Compete Act of 2006”..." "The legislation changes the visa status of foreign-born minor league players to be able to use P-1 visas, formerly reserved only for major league players, and an upgrade from the H-2B visas, generally used by temporary foreign-born workers in numerous industries. Each team previously was limited to 26 H-2B visas per season for its minor leagues. Major leagues have no numerical limitations with the P-1 visa, valid for a period of 10 years."....."Given that over 40% of minor leaguers are foreign-born and that most of them are from the Dominican Republic, this will enable a continuous pipeline of Latin American players." ".....very few of these youngsters statistically make it to the major leagues and even prior to their new visa status, hundreds of minor leaguers were brought to the U.S. each year only to be relieved of their services. Hundreds of Dominican players also never return to their homeland and remain in the U.S. as illegal immigrants, primarily surviving in the underground economy of New York City." "...It has been said that Latin players in the Dominican Republic sign for contracts between 5 and 10 cents on the dollar compared to their U.S. counterparts." "...But it remains a lose-lose for communities across the U.S. which finance sky box stadiums, unable to afford tickets for their families, for games played on the backs of many exploited athletes who never make it to the big leagues and at the expense of our own children, who of little means, are never even encouraged to play baseball by its biggest profiteers." "...Department of Homeland Security, granted MLB its visa program, contingent upon foreign-born players only occupying positions on a team that could not be filled by U.S. citizens. Obviously, the U.S. government and MLB have come to the conclusion that playing baseball should be included among those “jobs Americans won’t do.”

Last evening on ESPN, Dave Winfield was asked about a comment in his new book that perhaps his son will be the last African American player in professional baseball ( or words to that effect ), the issue of the vanishing African American taken to its extreme conclusion. With that in mind, following is an excerpt from my blog March 07 on William Rhoden's writing in Forty Million Dollar Slaves on the evolution of the Negro Leagues, the racial integration of MLB and the demise of The Negro Leagues.

Mr. Rhoden tells the story of African American Arthur "Rube" Foster, who he describes as a "pioneer". Mr. Foster was a baseball player but is most important for founding the Negro National League in 1920. Mr. Foster is described as a "man of of clear, resolute, and uncompromising vision: He wanted a professional league of black baseball that was owned, organized, managed and played by African Americans." "Foster's Negro National League created a universe in which the black presence was accepted, nurtured, and celebrated. The league became a base of power for African Americans in the rapidly growing industry of baseball."

According to Mr. Rhoden, Mr. Foster realized that the integration of baseball was inevitable, however Mr. Foster's vision for integrating the game was a positive one for African Americans. "When integration came, Foster wanted the Negro League he envisioned to have a monopoly on the commodity that Major League Baseball would desperately need: black ballplayers." "He wanted......that when the national pastime was integrated, the NNL would be in a position to dictate rather than be dictated to. His theory was that the league's strongest teams would be absorbed intact, not picked apart like a carcass by so many buzzards." In 1926 Mr. Foster met with AL president Ban Johnson and Yankees manager John McGraw to discuss the possibility of his Chicago based American Giants playing "big-league teams that visited Chicago on their off days. Commissioner Kenesaw Mountain Landis apparently killed the idea...." Mr. Foster died in 1930 and his worst fears for the integration of baseball, that "white ball would take what it needed, then crush black ball to pieces and watch it die." were realized decades later.

Jackie Robinson desegregated Major League Baseball in 1947, a mythologized event not only in Amercian sports but in American popular culture. It was the beginning of the end of black baseball in America. "Black baseball owners could not agree on a strategy. The owners were torn between wanting integration and wanting to remain a viable business. These latter-day owners of Negro League baseball mistakenly felt that they would be involved - in a profitable way - with the "integration" process. Some felt that their teams might be purchased and incorporated into the Major League Baseball minor-league system. This was not part of the plan, however. The treatment of the Negro Leagues was brutal and disrespectful." "Baseball was unofficially integrated in 1945 when Robinson signed a contract with Montreal." "In 1947, Robinson's contract was purchased by the Dodgers. Just one year later, in 1948, the black leagues were in shambles." "The final blow for the Negro Leagues came in 1951 when the Southern-based network of minor-league baseball teams was desegregated. Now the major leagues had no use for the Negro Leagues, and they slowly died." "By the 1960's, black baseball was effectively dead: Major League Baseball had prevailed." "A black institution was dead, while a white institution grew richer and stronger. This was the end result of integration."

"..Rube Foster has become a mere footnote in the epic story of sports integration in which Jackie Robinson is a central character. In some ways, however, Foster is an even more significant figure than Robinson. Foster used black resources to build a baseball league that nurtured talents like Robinson while establishing an economically viable alternative to Major League Baseball. Robinson became a symbol of the process of integration, a process that ultimately enriched white institutions while weakening and in many cases destroying black institutions. White America determined the pattern of integration; the white power structure chose blacks who made whites feel comfortable, who more or less accepted the vagaries of racism. This was the Jackie Robinson model of how an integration-worthy African-American behaved: taking abuse, turning the other cheek, tying oneself in knots, holding one's tongue, never showing anger, waiting for racist sensibilities to smolder and die out - if your spirit didn't die first. This model was hardly progress for black athletes. It was, in fact, a reversal of the paradigm for black involvement in sports that Foster and others had created out of a hard necessity."

So, does it matter? Baseball's chattering classes have been on about this all spring ( me included ). But as I've said before, our community of geeks, bloggers and baseball writers is overwhelmingly white. Does it matter to African Americans? How would the hell would I know? I barely know any African Canadians for christ sake. Does it matter that they don't watch baseball or play it? Does it matter that they prefer basketball & football? Does it matter that there are no African Americans on the Astros or Braves?

In the end I feel sorry for Mr's Joe Morgan and Frank Robinson and Hank Aaron and Don Newcombe et al. Men who were victims of racism, men who overcame racism, men who remember and revere Jackie Robinson and the Civil Rights movement, men who are proud of their accomplishments, men who love baseball, men who are saddened that the younger generations of African Americans don't share in their memories of "the cause" ( as Frank Robinson put it last evening ) or love the game that they love. Ultimately I feel sad for them because I think they honestly believe that MLB is making a serious effort to reconnect with their community and I think they've been duped. Rightly or wrongly it's about the money, always has been and always will be, it ain't a game.

From the basement April 13 07

2007-04-13T19:48:00.000-04:00

Ottawa Lynx

4 days until Triple A Opening Day. Unfortunately the Lynx have to compete with the Sens for attention that evening and the weather forecast looks bleak. If the weather was good and the Sens were off I thought it might act as a barometer on the level of Lynx nostalgia in the region this season. I am predicting that there will be a noticable bump in attendance this year as fans who abandoned the product many years ago return for one or two last games.

From SBJ March 19 -25 edition - "The Lehigh Valley IronPigs and Coca-Cola of the Lehigh Valley reached an agreement for the naming rights of the IronPigs baseball stadium.........The IronPigs, set to begin play next year, will be the Class AAA affiliate of the Philadelphia Phillies." Business is good for Minor League ball south of the border. The IronPigs are an example. How's Coke for a Corporate partner? They ain't minor league. As I discussed at Media Day with John Russell and Rod Nichols, this is a glory era for minor league ball in the US ( well all pro ball, MLB & Indy as well), great new facilities across all levels and record attendance. What a contrast to our country where Professional baseball has collapsed. Expos, enough said. Triple A has left Vancouver, Edmonton & Calgary. Medicine Hat had a low minors team, London was the Double A affilitate of the Tigers for some time. Now Vancouver has Short Season and Edmonton & Calgary are Indy / Northern League cities. The only city that bucks the trend is Winnipeg where Mayor Sam Katz's Goldeyes are one of the strongest franchises in the League. ( I've been to Winnipeg - albeit in November - and the only city in this country that I think worse is Sudbury.) I am at a loss to explain it, and not in some baseball chauvinist manner. Baseball fans in Canada as well as south of the border are predominantly ( the increasing Hispanic US population like baseball also ) like me, white, middle aged, middle class, middle of the road yada yada. I don't understand why my peers lost interest, the game hasn't changed fundamentally. The reason I'm always given by former baseball fans is that the 94 strike ruined it for them. Yet I look at the popularity of the NHL in our country and it is obvious that none of the hockey fans ( many who are former casual baseball fans ) give a shit about the lost NHL season of 04 - 05 ( do I have the right season?). I digress.

I saw a headline on the Lynx website that they are going trans fat free this season. I'm more in tune with the Dodgers new promotion this season, the all you can eat, all friggin game, all inclusive, all gross out, all in, alright, all, all, all section.

The 05 Lynx had a player test positive for something...we'll probably never know what. One of the Lynx best players in 05, 2nd baseman Bernie Castro, "is serving a 15-game suspension for violating the minor league drug policy in 2005"....He played at Triple-A Ottawa in the Orioles' organization in 2005 and also spent time with Baltimore that year." ( April 06 AP ) It's due to a technicality that he is only now serving his suspension. Castro was recently removed from the Nationals 40 man and to quote Jim Bowden "Once we outrighted him off the major league contract, he was now back under the minor league policy, which means the 15-game suspension he was supposed to serve a couple years ago he serves now," I very much enjoyed watching Castro play here, slick in the field, fast on the basepaths and a .315 hitter ( not a fluke, 502 AB's )and the IL All Star 2nd baseman that season. Did he test positive for PED's? Maybe, I think it's naive to think that only the power hitters are juiced. There is weight training at all positions now ( I think, I am in my basement, but I can see ) and where you find serious weight training you'll find "supplements". Anyway, I am in the minority, I don't care that some / many high performance athletes ( I include "amateurs") take PED's. I like bigger, stronger, faster ( anybody like watching the NFL?). Bernie Castro is not the most notable Lynx to have his name dragged through the mud for this sort of thing. That honor goes to OF Armando Rios who was a Lynx very, very briefly in July 04. Rios has been widely "implicated" in the BALCO scandal and is a former San Franciso Giant. It is also rumored that he tested positive for steroids in the PCL in 03. I distinctly remember seeing him in the on deck circle here, I knew that his name was linked to BALCO, and I was curious. He looked pretty thick. Rios serves as an example for those who say that taking the juice does not instantly transform you into a great home run hitter ( well a big league home run hitter ). You can check out Rios here. The BALCO related player I most remember seeing here was C Bobby Estalella, as a visiting Red Baron ( and later a Clipper ). Huge, jacked. He was a Blue Jay very briefly and a former Giant. Most of the BALCO customers were Bay Area athletes, notable exceptions being Giambi(s)? & Sheffield. Estalella was enormous long before he got to the Bay Area.

Disney

Disney / ESPN screwed up big time. The ESPN Fantasy Baseball site crashed and burned, not commercially, but technologically. I regulary visit the "Player News" content in their Fantasy section because it is extremely thorough ( if a player has a questionable stool the fantasy geeks need to know ) and very, very current. Earlier this week I couldn't access the Fantasy Section, instead there was a message that it would be available the next AM and there was a Corporate apology...I didn't care. Subsequently I read on bizofbaseball.com that the problem is REALLY BIG, "ESPN spokesman Paul Melvin would not confirm how many subscribers will receive refunds of approximately $30 per team due to the glitch, which caused daily player and team data to be processed incorrectly and at incorrect times." Yahoo is swooping in to pick at the carcass, "The company has announced that fantasy enthusiasts can sign on to Yahoo Sports Fantasy Baseball ’07 through Apr. 28 and still play a full season, despite the fact that the real world baseball season is more than a week old. Yahoo is doing so hoping to appeal to angry fantasy players who have been burned by ESPN.com, which has experienced massive technical difficulties with its own fantasy product over the past few weeks, leading the site’s execs to issue a public apology on Apr. 11." Fantasy fans are the most avid, to the point of obsessive ( yes, worse than me ), they must be PISSED. These guys devote a lot of time to picking their teams and making trades and to have ESPN f--- it all up will alienate them as customers I predict FOREVER. The competition is vicious in the digital sports media "space" to attract Fantasy players, Disney has lost bad, Fantasy is big, big business.

Barry Bonds

I have written that I believed the motivation behind the Bonds Grand Jury Investigations was nothing more than a prosecutor - Kevin Ryan - with a personal mandate / vendetta. I had predicted that with the firing of Ryan in December that the Investigation would stop. Well, I think I was wrong. A former Giants trainer Mark Letendre testified before the GJ February 14. I had gone all Oliver Stone on this, Bush on his soap box during a State of the Union about steroids, the dog and pony show before Congress, BALCO...why all this money, time and energy suddenly devoted to a problem that everyone knows has existed for decades? And then I decided to shelve the bong for a bit....but I'm wondering again...

In 04 Bonds withdrew from the PA's group licensing agreement - the first ( and only? ) player to do so. ( Ever wonder why you never see Fehr or Orza defending Bonds? ) This season, in theory, should provide the big payoff for that move. Barry screwed this up too. According to SBJ a few years ago Bonds had "nearly two dozen licensees " and now it appears there are only a handful.

Irony of ironies. MLBAM not only produces MLB.com & MLB.TV and all that goes with that, but they also contract out their services to the likes of NYC - ecommerce, US Figure Skating Assn - online video and CBS - assisted with CBS March Madness on Demand ( how cool is that? a league morphing into a media company ). Well, one of their customers is also Barry Bonds. Yep, Bonds pays MLBAM to produce BarryBonds.com and handle all the e-commerce on the site.

MLB might try to limit media access to Bonds' home run chase. ESPN & FOX operate under rules governing "exclusive" & "non exclusive" windows for airing MLB highlights & clips. MLB might stringently enforce these rules to prevent ESPN / FOX from doing live "cut-ins" on Giants broadcasts to limit coverage of Bonds "assault" on the record. How petty.

MISC

I see complaining about Bud Selig's recently published earnings from MLB of $14.5 million for the fiscal year ending October 31 2005. Who cares? I don't. I wouldn't care if the 30 super wealthy individuals / corporations that own the teams wanted to hand him $40 million a year of their money. Re. SBJ "During Selig's 14-year tenure running the league, MLB revenue has soared from $1.2 billion to an expected $5.5 billion this year." He's probably worth every penny of it.

Ray Warren of Carat Media Group Americas thinks MLB will continue to grow in the near future. "What MLB is doing better than anybody is building an international game here in the US. By 2012, consumers will be multicultural, and baseball is best positioned to take advantage of that." Does that mean in large part the aforementioned burgeoning Hispanic population in the US?

Looks like the Twins are over the last hurdle in the struggle to get construction started on their new park. Eminent domain proceedings will commence to settle the dispute over the value of the real estate that the stadium will be built on. I always disliked watching baseball in the Metrodome ( well on my TV or PC in the Metrodome ). Visiting players losing fly balls against the baseball colored ceiling / roof, the stupidly lively turf, the hideous green garbage bags on the outfield walls, the plexiglass on the outfield wall, the absurd noise level during playoff games. Good riddance.

I thought the key to the Jays 06 season was Dustin McGowan and I think he's the key to this season as well. He always had big, big potential but has had arm surgery, has battled diabetes and got jerked between starting & relieving last season. ( The Jays plan at the beginning of last season was that he be groomed to replace Speier and Schoeneweis who they knew would leave as FA's ). It's early, but I'm hopeful. The Syracuse stats: 10 IP, 0.90 ERA, 17 K, 3 BB. Thank you Jeff Blair.

Canuck update

One of Bonds' licensees is McFarlane Toys, whose founder is Calgary native Todd McFarlane. McFarlane is the comic book guy who collects home run balls. He's got some of Sammy's, Big Mac's and Bonds' 73rd ( for which he paid $450.000 ).

Local C Pierre Luc Laforest was called up by the Padres this week to replace the injured C Josh Bard.

I guess Geddy Lee will be disppointed by the ESPN Fantasy Baseball nuclear meltdown. From SBJ March 26 - April 1 " ESPN created a fictitious band, Iron Diamond, to promote how its fantasy baseball "rocks," with the crew led by Geddy Lee...The multiplatform marketing of Iron Diamond enven includes a MySpace page." I should like RUSH, I was raised in Madoc, white trash to the core, but I still don't like it.

Carl Kiffner is a good Canuck, thank you Carl, it worked. Check out Carl's Ottawa Lynx blog here.

From the basement April 10 07

2007-04-10T15:03:00.000-04:00

First off, welcome to the blogosphere Mr. Page Fence, remember we are going to "The Stadium" next season.

TOP STORIES SO FAR 07 SEASON

How cold is it? As always weather trumps everything.

A Rod - 5 jacks in 6 games. Will he be A Rod again or is he the next Jimmy Piersoll ( is that too cheap?)

The Phillies - 1-6. I got home in time yesterday to see the Phillies implode in the bottom of the eighth against the Mets. I'm sure their bullpen is getting ripped again by the fans and the press but it wasn't entirely their fault. There was bad luck, Geary left Green with a toothpick in his hands but he still got a bloop hit to left. As well, it's not Geary's fault that Jimmy Rollins muffed a groundball with the bases loaded and 1 out. I've already seen speculation that the Phillies season is going into the toilet. Relax, it's April 10 and they play in the NL where if you can hang around .500 until August you're in the thick of the wild card at a minimum. Isn't parity exciting? Having said that, I agree with Jeff Blair that the Phillies are overrated. I think because they finished strong last season they were trendy amongst the chattering classes this offseason. But other than very strong starting pitching ( which is the most important part of any team ), Howard, Rollins & Utley, they're mediocre. But hey, it's the NL and everybody is in the hunt ( ok, not the Nationals ).

Really, the only notable occurrences this early in the season are injuries ( the long term or potentially long term ) and that always involves pitchers. Out for a long time - Kenny Rogers and Mike Hampton ( I think Hampton's season is done ). Out for a short time or longer? - Chris Carpenter & Ricky Nolasco. Do we even count Kerry Wood or is it only notable when he does pitch?

BLUE JAYS

I watched the first 6.5 innings of the Jays home opener last nite.

In the bottom of the first with Wells on first, Campbell and Tabler were telling us that Wells has the green light to run this season. They think this is good, they want him to be "aggressive." Vernon Wells should NOT be running with Thomas & Glaus hitting behind him. Sometime during the 80's I was sober long enough to read an essay by Bill James which argued that stealing bases has an adverse impact on the hitter & resultingly on team offense. It's Bill James so you know he's got the empirical evidence. It makes sense to me, hitters taking strikes to allow runners to steal, the distractions to the hitter of the runner in motion & pick off attempts. Hall of Famer Joe Morgan disagrees entirely with this opinion, and well he is in the HOF and I am in my basement. The Jays have the type of offense that is easy to criticize when they don't score. They will hit doubles and homers, they won't steal, hit & run or sacrifice a lot. They will strike out liberally and hit into a lot of double plays. When they don't hit they will look lazy and Gibbons will be knocked for being unimaginative. But this is the era of Arena Baseball, particularly in the AL you need to score a LOT of runs and you don't accomplish that playing small ball. In this era speed is of much more benefit in the field than for offense.

Later in the bottom of the 1st Wells was easily thrown out at home by Emil Brown. I think Brown is getting screwed by the Royals. He's been a very strong player for them the past few years on some awful teams. This spring he was told that his playing time would be reduced, the Royals have a surplus of outfielders. I do understand that they needed to move Teahan to accomodate Gordon ( will Teahan return to 3rd if the uber prospect flounders?), but to reduce Brown's playing time to open up AB's for Gload is a mistake. Anyway, Brown was told he won't be playing as much because his defense is lacking, so I was happy for him when he threw out Wells.

MISC

http://mlnsportszone.squarespace.com/editorsraves/2007/4/2/mlb-civil-rights-game-latest-in-the-season-opener-gimmicks-misfires-in-memphis.html A rant about MLB's Civil Rights game that is right in line with what I've been writing. Thanks to Carl @ www.ottawalynx.blogspot.com for sending me the link.

Wonder why it's so hard to trade for pitching and why Ted Lilly, Jeff Suppan & Jason Marquis raked in the big dough this offseason? It's April 10 and look at some of the scheduled starters today: Rick Vanden Hurk, Chris Sampson & Randy Keisler.

I wrote last week that I was surprised to see Joey Thurston on the Reading roster and that we'd be seeing him here in Triple A. Well, it's happened, the Phillies dealt ( sold? ) Abernathy to the Nationals which opened up a spot for Thurston here. Thurston failed to make the Nats as an NRI this spring, we'll see if Abernathy fares better.

From Central Ontario April 08 07

2007-04-08T21:23:00.000-04:00

Packed up the family and headed west on the 401 to visit Grandma this weekend. There is no basement here so I am posting from above ground for the first time.

"....it is important to revel in the mundane rather than the spectacular." This quote is from John Henry and he is referencing Thomas Boswell. Thomas Boswell is the type of baseball writer that I don't read. Too romantic about the game. If I get my bong out I can watch Field of Dreams ( which I've read is really about male menopause but I digress ) but I've never watched The Natural or read Boys of Summer and such. Having said that, I do identify completely with this quote from Mr. Henry ( I assume he is paraphrasing Mr. Boswell ). Casual baseball fans ( not unlike in other sports ) are most interested in the sport come playoff time, particularly the World Series. I am most interested in the regular season, the seemingly mundane. The real pleasure in being a baseball fan is the day to day grind of it. Watching how rosters, batting orders, rotations and bullpens are managed, tweaked, rebuilt over the course of the season. I also like that it unfolds very, very slowly. This isn't the NFL ( which I enjoy ) where we wait a week and it's an EVENT, baseball is for the laconic.

In more practical, real terms, the regular season is the measuring stick of who the best teams are, particulary in this era of the Wild Card. The postseason doesn't reveal who the best team is. For starters, the 5 game format of the Division Championship series is a joke. 162 games accurately measures how good the teams are. How deep is your pitching? In the NL, how deep is your bench? How deep is your system when the inevitable injuries occur? None of this matters in the postseason, it's not the same game. The Cardinals are World Series champs, good for them, but you cannot convince me that a team that wins 83 games during the regular season is the best that season. The luckiest, but not the best.

How Noooo Yawk is this? The Gambino crime family is getting a piece of the construction of the new Yankee Stadium. "Mayor Bloomberg says his office called to complain to the Yankee organization about the team's decision to use a construction firm accused of having ties to the mafia. Bloomberg said the construction firm, Interstate Industrial, "clearly is not a firm the city would contract with." Interstate Industrial has been hired by the Yankees, and its main construction firm Turner Construction Corp., to lay the foundation for the new Yankee Stadium. But Interstate's owners, Frank and Peter DiTommaso, were indicted on perjury charges back in July. Officials accuse the brothers of lying to a Bronx grand jury about $165,000 in illegal payments given to Rudy Giuliani's former police and correction commissioner Bernard Kerik. Court and city documents show the City's Department of Investigation, New Jersey state investigators and the FBI have also linked the DiTommasos, and their firm, to members of the Gambino crime family. Part of that evidence is from mafia turncoats who testified in open court during cases like the trial of Peter Gotti." You can find the entire report on bizofbaseball.com. Episdoe 1 of the last season of The Sopranos airs tonight. As big a geek as I am, I'll pass up baseball to watch The Sopranos.

Rob Neyer of ESPN has been arguing for some time that Derek Jeter is overrated in the field. As I've said before, Neyer and the rest of the SABR community have stats and metrics and regression analyses up ( or is it out? ) the ying yang supporting their argument. Criticisms of Jeter's play in the field are gathering momentum. Neyer points out that SI's Jon Heyman and the NY Post's Joel Sherman are also criticizing Jeter's defense. Neyer also tells us that Jeter has been vaguely criticized on Yankee's TV broadcasts in two different games already this young season. The first time by color guy Joe Girardi for his limited range to his left ( the stat geek's argument ). The second time, according to Neyer, Jeter screwed up 2 different plays in one game. In both instances, according to Neyer, the Yankees broadcast team of Michael Kay and Ken Singleton twisted themselves into knots trying NOT to point out Jeter's miscues ( both involved not covering 2nd base, one on a bunt play, the other on a SB ). Evidently Singleton did make the point, without naming Jeter, that he did screw up both plays.

Neyer then goes on to muse about the role of the broadcaster, booster or analyst? He is critical of the Yankees broadcasters for their lack of candor. I find him surprisingly naive. He knows what the Yankees expect from YES ( they friggin own it ) and if they don't get it heads will roll. Of course the broadcasters are cheerleaders. There are recent examples of TV broadcasters being disciplined or dismissed because they pissed off the teams they work for. The most high profile spat involved Steve Stone and the Cubs. Stone was fired for being too critical of Dusty Baker. I watch some Cubs on WGN and they get exactly what they want from Stone's successor Bob Brenly, unrelenting optimism for the Cubbies. Remember when the BravesTV guys got kicked off the team flights a few years ago for pointing out how the Braves catchers were bending the rules in order to expand the strike zone for their pitchers?

A little while back I wrote about an article @ www.hardballtimes.com concerning the growth in the number of teams in MLB with "ties" to an RSN. Now Sports Business Journal is reporting that MLB is "proving to be a windfall for RSN's this season, with many of the larger markets reporting ad sales increases in the high single digits." Evidently there are a couple of factors driving this, fewer games on ESPN and more parity in MLB. I think RSN revenue will be an increasingly volatile issue in MLB between large & small market teams. How is this revenue being treated? There have already been accusations that teams are selling their programming to their RSN's at below market value to avoid additional revenue sharing burdens. See this recent comment from John Henry, "MLB is determined to limit our baseball revenues. They are determined to take more and more. Incredibly they now seem determined to invade local media markets." When he references "local media markets" I think he means NESN, the Red Sox owned RSN. How the owners share revenue, more specifically quantify revenue, is the new battleground in MLB. The battle in the Industry is no longer between the owners and players. When the current CBA expires in 2011 MLB will have had 16 years of labor peace. ( That's what more than quadrupling your revenues since 92 will do). The new battle is between the owners, how the pie is divied up.

The Lynx clubhouse is going to be overflowing with veteran pitching very soon, a good problem to have. The Lynx opened the season with an already veteran laden staff and more vets are on the way. The Phillies are scrambling for bullpen help and as a result have picked up Rosario from the Jays & just signed veteran RH ( and former Lynx ) Rick Bauer. Also, ESPN is reporting that the Phillies are interested in signing RH Dustin Hermanson to a minor league deal. As well, Freddy Garcia and Jon Lieber are both expected to rejoin the Phillies rotation soon which will result in a few demotions.

From the basement April 07

2007-04-07T10:58:00.000-04:00

After all the chatter on boards and in columns and all the political sabre rattling, MLB's out of market EI package will remain available on Cable. Ultimately this was all about MLB forcing Cable into carrying their upcoming MLB channel on their basic tiers, and it worked. The new channel will debut in 09. From AP "At 40 million homes, it would be one of the largest launches in cable history." This is the same dispute that the NFL is having with Cable over carriage of the NFL Network. I think MLB played this very skillfully, they got ripped everywhere in the baseball press, got ripped by Kerry and Specter on Capitol Hill and in the end got precisely what they wanted.

Jesus ( it is Easter ), another MLB event trumpeting the racial integtration of their game. I've been on about this for awhile. I don't understand why Jimmie Lee Solomon and his team at MLB have been assigned this task. The opening of the baseball academy in Compton, the 2 day Civil Rights & Baseball media event in Memphis last month and now "Frank Robinson will receive the first Jackie Robinson Society Community Recognition Award next week as part of a George Washington University..." April 15 Robinson's # 42 will be unretired...and on it goes. Is MLB really serious about growing the game in the African American community or is this to appeal to the caucasian, middle class, middle aged, baseball chattering classes ( which practically all the baseball media are, ok the high profile baseball media are more prosperous than middle class ) who want to feel good about themselves and be nostalgic for an era that they are too young to remember? I suspect the latter, baseball revenues have grown exponentially the past 10 years with no end in sight, while the game has never been less popular with African Americans.

Could the Cubs ( including Wrigley Field ) fetch a billion dollars? This will be revealing. Always the most important indicator of the health of a franchise or sports league is the value of the franchises. Balance sheet profits / losses are worthless figures.

Lot's of chatter on the Net about K Rod cheating. I won't read it. Is he cheating? Probably, a lot of us are cheaters. Practically anyone I've ever played golf with cheats, I've played cards with cheaters. I prefer "gamesmanship' to "cheating".

The Phillies picked up Francisco Rosario from the Jays. As has been widely reported, he is a power arm, I think the Jays will regret this. Pitchers often mature late and he has missed some significant development time to injury. The Phillies bullpen is taking too much of blame for the season opening sweep at the hands of the Braves. The Phillies scored 3 runs in losing in 10 opening day and scored 2 runs in 11 innings in the following days loss. In this era, especially in a great hitters park ( Citizens Bank ) you won't win many with that sort of run production.

If Phillies Mgr Charlie Manuel gets canned ( watch attendance, always the key to firings ) will Lynx Mgr John Russell get the job?

From the basement - Lynx Media Day - April 05 07

2007-04-06T00:02:00.000-04:00

Ottawa Lynx Media Day

April 04 I left the basement ( well, my basement ) and went to Ottawa Lynx Media Day. I pretended for a few hours that I am part of the media. Yep, first time in 14 plus years of watching ball at Jetform Park / Lynx Stadium that I've been in their basement ( so I didn't leave the basement in a larger sense ). Yep, deep in the underground bowels, in the locker room, Manager's & Pitching Coach offices. Had the pleasure of speaking with a guy who caught Nolan Ryan ( including one of his no hitters ) and another guy who pitched 12 years of pro ball. Really glad that I went and a big thank you to Riley Denver with The Lynx and all of his colleagues present that day.

The interview portion started and I was too nervous to speak to any player for the first 10 - 15 minutes ( and in fact I never did ). I started toward Ron Calloway but was intimidated. Fortunately, Riley made some conversation with me and then I bumped into André Cormier from Baseball Canada & we had a chat which included some talk about local RH Philippe Aumont who, as I've been blogging, is believed to have a shot at going in the 1st Round of the upcoming June draft. André told me that Aumont is going back to FLA soon to pitch in some extended spring training games with the Cdn Junior National Team.

So I found myself standing outside Mgr. Russell's office ( I think because I had left the locker room out of nervousness ) and thought "well I'm here now" and I walked in and started floundering. I fumbled with my recorder, mike and notes, I nervously told him that I was a virgin and hadn't done this before. I think he said "never?". I was ready to sit and chat for awhile but I realized after several minutes that I wasn't quite following the script. Obviously the team allots this time for the real local media to get some quotes / soundbites, photos / video for the local sports pages / reports, it's not really meant to be a time for me to sit down and indulge myself. I had my back kinda turned but I could sense some impatience from a few real reporters ( one I recognize from TV ) with the amount of Mr. Russell's time that I was allowing myself. ( Yep, my first baseball Q & A ever and I blunder into the office of the guy who everybody needs a quote from ) I understand the impatience, they're working, they have stuff to do, I'm an indulgent hobbyist. I also noted that Mr. Russell snuck a few peeks and was surprised at the number of questions I had typed out. I've no doubt that he was thinking " get this fucking geek out of my fucking office ", but he was a true pro and was very patient, cooperative and polite.

So I left Mgr. Russell's office with no idea of who I wanted to speak to next. If I turned left I went to the elevators to exit, so I turned right, walked several steps and on my right was pitching coach Rod Nichols' office and it was vacant, save for him. So again, I blundered in, same nervous MO. I was initially surprised by how big Rod Nichols is. I've seen enough pitchers charting in the stands over the years to recognize the pitcher body type, it ain't Rod Nichols'. He's a BIG guy, not super tall, but THICK, way thicker than most pitchers I've seen. We made a bit of chat, before I started recording, about Phillies fans ( he was online reading some Phillies stuff when I entered his office ) and then we had a 10 minute Q & A. This I thought went better, I started to relax a bit, to the point where I deviated from my notes a few times, more conversational. Mr. Nichols was thoroughly engaging.

And that was it, as I exited Mr. Nichols office, the last of the real press was leaving and the team was about to meet. I learned that I wasted way too much time researching. I wanted to be PREPARED, and I looked up every player on the roster on the web and wrote a question or two for a lot of them. I spoke to not one of them in the end. It's unlikely I'll ever go to another media day, I think it's a fait d'accompli that the IL is leaving Ottawa. But if I ever do, I'll know to prepare to speak with 2 or 3 people only. I also have to calm myself a bit and stop talking so much, maybe I should have a few beforehand, there's a history of that in sportswriting isn't there?

In the end I spent $200.00 on recording equipment, imposed on my wife to make me some DIY quality business cards ( of which I distributed 1, ok 2 if you count the one I gave to a mother of one of my kid's classmates later that day, after I scribbled out the references to my blog ), wrote WAY too many questions, researched WAY too much and shaved that morning ( most days I don't shave ). I regret none of it, I had fun.

THE JOHN RUSSELL & ROD NICHOLS CONVERSATIONS.

Rod Nichols pitched in pro ball for 12 years, several in the majors. He was a player on some notable Indians teams in 91 & 92. The 91 team was notable for futility, 105 losses, although Nichols told me that "anytime in the big leagues is fun". There was drastic improvement the next season when the Indians improved to 76-86. Nichols told me that they really turned it around in the 2nd half that year. There was a core of young players there that went on to form the nucleus of some powerful Indians teams in the mid 90's. Albert Belle, Carlos Baerga, Kenny Lofton, Charles Nagy, Greg Swindell & Bud Black amongst them. Nichols and I discussed how the Indians GM at the time, John Hart, was the first to sign his young players to long term deals before they became arbitration eligible. This has long become accepted practice throughout the industry, saving the rancour of salary arbitration hearings. I found it very interesting how Nichols describes his former teammate Albert Belle. Nichols noted that Belle was "reviled" by the press ( and I'll add fans outside of Cleveland ) but that he was an "awesome teammate", "great guy". Nichols portrays Belle as a player who was frustrated by the press's demands on his time, that Belle "just wanted to work", was a "perfectionist", "worked harder than anybody, took more notes". I see this as an example of something I've always thought about sports reporting. Too many of the reporters get too personal about it. Just because the press dislikes you doesn't mean your teammates do, and only teammates count.

I asked both Russell & Nichols about the 12 man staffs that are the norm now in the big leagues. I've always thought that the growth in size of pitching staffs resulted from increased emphasis on "match ups" over the years, as well as reduced pitch counts due to injury concerns (particularly when there can be millions of dollars invested). Analysis of pitch counts has become a sport unto itself in the baseball geek internet world. I have also subscribed to the theory that pitch counts & IP have declined because kids don't develop arm strength because they throw less due to the widespread use of pitching machines. Russell & Nichols see the growth in staffs as resulting from the improvements in hitting over the years, pitching is more demanding in this era. Nichols tells me that not only are the hitters bigger ( better nutrition, weight training, I can remember when traditionalists eschewed weight training for baseball players ), they're more skilled at their craft due to video training, the bats and balls are harder. The comment about the balls I find revealing. Every season I read conjecture about the balls, wound tighter? different cores? livelier? etc. MLB always doles out some press release replete with quotes from some science geek that the balls are tested every year to comply with strict MLB specifications yada yada. But over the years I have consistently read speculation that the balls have changed. I value Nichols opinion, pitcher / pitching coach for the last 22 years, he knows.

Nichols and I discussed Canuck Scott Mathieson's recovery from TJ surgery in September. I keep reading in Baseball America that he is way ahead of schedule in his recovery and they expect him to pitch soon, which I find astoundingly optimistic. Nichols confirms that yes his recovery is "way ahead of schedule" and that he thinks there is a real chance Mathieson could pitch for the Lynx later this season. That led to a bit of talk about Baseball America, I am an avid reader. I asked Nichols if "they know what they're talking about". Nichols thinks the BA coverage is good, he fields some calls from BA reporters and thinks them credible.

I've long thought ( with many others ) that radar gun readings on TV broadcasts are exaggerated. I think Nichols is in agreement. I.E. in Nichols' opinion it was "a little silly"..."Kenny Rogers throwing in the low 90's" during the postseason. Again, he knows, he's not in his basement.

Russell and Nichols talked to me about the drastic improvements in playing conditions in the Minors since they entered pro ball in the early 80's. Russell commented about some fields with no clubhouses, port a potties, light stands inside the fences. Nichols described the improvements as "unbelievable", he reminisced about dressing sometimes in gyms, school buildings and how bad some of the fields in the low minors were. Were the "good ol days" really that much better?

Russell told me a good story about managing Johan Santana in Edmonton in the early 90's and how in New Orleans he gave up a 3 run homer in the first, struck out 17 and lost 3 - 1. He told me that Santana still talks about the learning experience, that you can "lose a game as easily in the 1st as in the 9th."

With both Russell and Nichols we talked about Eude Brito. I was surprised to learn that Brito is slated to work out of the pen this season. In hindsight I shouldn't be surprised, the Phillies bullpen appears to be thin. ( And that has nothing to do with them being swept by the Braves to begin the season).

The conversation I wanted to have with Ron Calloway concerns the 03 Expos. Calloway had 340 AB's with that team, they finished 83-79 and on August 28 were in a 5 way tie for the Wild Card. MLB, which owned the team, refused to foot the bill for September call ups. I wanted to ask Calloway about that season and in particular, is he still bitter that MLB bailed on the team come September?

In retrospect I wrote some really dumb questions. The dumbest was a question to the Venezuelan players about the impact Chavez will have on baseball there. Pete, put away your bong. Do you know what I think their real concerns were on April 04? Finding a place to live, buying a toque, finding an Ottawa chick ( if they don't already have one here, there are a lot of IL vets on the squad ), the fit of their uni, where their locker is situated in the clubhouse and the really shitty weather.

The Lynx PR folks provided us with the Reading roster. I was surprised to see Joey Thurston is beginning the year there. Thurston was a key member of the Scranton team last year, .785 OPS in 479 AB's. I have to assume he'll be a Lynx very soon, encouraging news.

Fun to see Naete Sager & Carl Kiffner at Media Day. Naete publishes Ottawa's best 1 man sports section, Out of Left Field http://neatesager.blogspot.com/ Carl Kiffner blogs passionately about the Ottawa Lynx here http://ottawalynx.blogspot.com/

April 16 or April 17 I will post my Top 10 IL prospects that could be visiting Lynx Stadium this season. ( It's been written for a few months, what's a geek to do in the middle of winter? ) Please email me your list to toms1243@rogers.com and I'll post it.

Leaving the basement April 03 07

2007-04-03T14:28:00.000-04:00

Be careful what you wish for....

Tomorrow I will leave the basement and attend Lynx Media Day. I am officially a "Journalist". If a geek types in his basement and nobody reads.....? I find it very amusing, that I am pretending to be part of the media, boys will be boys. This weekend I purchased new toys, a digital recorder and a microphone. If nothing else my kids ( 6 & 4 ) had a lot of fun playing with them and if I can surmount the technological challenges perhaps their voices will be digitally archived for future nostalgia. There is a strong possibility my new toys will be used only tomorrow and never again, although I do hope to soon starting posting up some baseball talk on the Web....so, it feels very strange to leave the basement and talk baseball with some guys in the industry. That's another odd thing about my geekdom, I very rarely talk about baseball because honestly I know practically nobody who is interested in it.

Anyway thanks to Riley Denver @ The Lynx for allowing me to attend, I'm thoroughly looking forward to it.

It's ironic that I will be "covering" Lynx Media Day. Ironic because this is the type of reporting that I'm not interested in. I rarely read player comments, unless someone has said something controversial / inflammatory, but the "give it 110%", "one game at a time clichés" bore the hell out of me. I'm not interested in what the players and coaches say to the press. It's not that I don't think some of these guys couldn't be insightful but they are hamstrung by their position. You can't bite the hand that feeds you.

So what am I gonna ask?

Before he was released a handful of days ago I was going to ask ( if I had the balls ) Randall Simon if it's true that he was the "fat monkey" that former Braves teammate John Rocker referred to in the infamous SI interview. This has been widely reported. But I was thinking even before his release, is that an insulting question? If it is true, is it any of my goddman business? ( No ) If he confirmed it for me what would I have uncovered, more evidence that there is racism in MLB? That's not insightful, there's racism everywhere.

I'd like to ask their opinions on what percentage of pro ball players are taking PED's, but they can't comment publicly on that. I'd like to ask why more minor leaguers are testing positive ( I know there are more minor league players in the aggregate but percentage wise I think the minor leaguers are caught with greater frequency ).

I'd like to ask if the balls are livelier in the bigs than in the minors ( there has been speculation over the years ), but again they probably wouldn't comment.

I'd like an honest answer on how bad the umpiring was in Ottawa last season during the strike. The Lynx and the IL tried to keep a lid on it but there was speculation that the quality was sub standard across the league but particulary bad in Ottawa. Just before the strike was settled there were rumors that the IL was going to step in and provide umpires for the Lynx home games. But who wants to comment openly about that, do you need to be called on the carpet by Management because the League complained about your comments? And anyway, it's last season, it's over.

So why am I going? I'm excited about going and to be honest it's because I'm a geek and I'll get a charge out of pretending that I'm part of it for an hour or two. The real reporters will be bored, the players and coaches will be bored, the Lynx staff will be working and I'll be riveted, because I'm a geek.

Maybe a guy in his basement has an advantage? Maybe somebody will be more candid with me than the real reporters because I am a guy in his basement and ergo, who gives a shit? Or maybe ( and more likely ) I'll be ignored because I am a geek in his basement.

Cancuk update

I mentioned that local guy Philippe Aumont made Keith Law's blog on ESPN. Now I see the same comments in Baseball America, he certainly impressed some people in Florida with the Cdn Junior Team last month in FLA. The June draft isn't far away, looks like this kid is gonna be rich.

From the basement March 30 07

2007-03-31T00:24:00.000-04:00

I get a lot of email from MLB.com because I'm a subscriber. Overwhelmingly it never gets my attention, but today somehow I did take notice. The purpose of the email is to promote their initial Civil Rights Game. I never opened the email although I've blogged about the subject before. I don't think they should be patting themselves on the back. Don't get me wrong, the integration of the game took it to a new level of skill and athleticism, but MLB integrated the game not out of some devotion to Civil Rights but a devotion to the bottom line, it was good for business.

No matter how hard I try, I can't keep track of everybody. I read EVERY boxscore of the regular season, I read ALL the transactions, majors and minors year round, I read all the Baseball America Top 10 prospect lists, I read the daily Fantasy update on ESPN ( if the roto geeks don't care nobody does ), I watch baseball both Triple A and big league, hell I even watched some of the Caribbean Series on my PC this winter. But still I fail to follow it all. Alejandro De Aza is the Marlins starting centre fielder to begin the season. Up until a handful of days ago I hadn't a clue who he is. Well professional baseball geek Rob Neyer admits to not knowing this guy either until very recently so I feel a bit less inadequate.

Jay Mariotti - Chicago Sun Times - Selig & steroids

Read a column from the March 29 Chicago Sun Times by Jay Mariotti which I couldn't disagree more strongly with. In Jay's words, "Make sure I have a vomit bag when Bonds passes Aaron. It will be one of the darkest, seamiest moments in American sports history." Ooooh, he's really steamed, what venom, what outrage! ".....baseball was brought back from the dead by the steroids era, when juiced-up sluggers were duping us with Home Run Derby." How can a sportswriter ( as opposed to a geek in his basement ) admit to being "duped" by the presence of steroids in MLB? Which sport was he watching? Which locker rooms was he visiting? What players was he talking to? Who didn't know? The more pertinent observation would be that nobody cared. The question to ask is why does the press care now?

In this same column there are the following quotes from Gary Sheffield's forthcoming "book". I use quotation marks because I would bet everything we own that Mr. Sheffield did not write a 'book", I'm guessin it is "as told to". Anyway, the always outspoken Sheffield is 100% right when he "tells", ''The '94 players' strike had made fans angry. The World Series was canceled. After that, attendance was down. But when [Mark] McGwire started the home run mania, attendance came back. The owners understood that the sudden spike in homers wasn't accidental. All baseball knew it. But baseball is run on money, and home runs meant money. Baseball turned a blind eye."

More steroids

George Mitchell wants to start "interviewing" current players. The MLBPA has long been the strongest and most unified of all the unions in North American pro sports. I wonder though if this steroids investigation might split apart the membership. I suspect there will be some clean players who will roll over on some of the dirty ones out of bitterness and retribution. Can't blame em.

Today Buster Olney writes what I think and hope I have been writing here. If the Mitchell report concludes that Bonds is / was dirty ( and it is certain to ), Selig & MLB will use it as justification to officially stay as far away from him as they can. I.E. they will not formally acknowledge him as the record holder. Mr. Olney doesn't go on to say this, but I predict that the official scapegoating of Bonds will be the beginning of the end of the steroids controversy.

Gambling was rife within MLB at one time. Everybody in the industry was aware of it's existence for years, there was a scandal and a very famous player was publicly humiliated by MLB. Can anybody guess what I'm talkin about? Does anybody see any correlations?

Jose Canseco is being ridiculed in the press again, the latest, he's at the centre of some reality TV thing blah blah blah. Jose was always an easy target because he is gauche, conceited, huge and he never met a microphone he didn't like. But the guys who get blackballed out of the game, Canseco, Caminiti & Rocker, are the guys that can tell the truth. You can't tell the truth if you want to remain close to the game, be a spring training instructor, be a broadcaster, coach at any level, be invited for old timers day, get invited to the owners box, or even look former teammates in the eye again. Caminiti & Canseco told the truth about steroids after they knew they had burned their bridges. Rocker told the truth about the farce that is sensitivity training when Ozzie Guillen got his wrist slapped last season over an anti gay slur. Yeah they're all nut jobs but that doesn't mean they weren't telling the truth.

MISC

Baseball's chattering classes keep hammering away at MLB over the DirecTV deal. An oft repeated criticism is that it is a bad business move because they are antagonizing their most hardcore fans. MLB revenues have more than quadrupled over the past 10 years to in excess of 5 BILLION dollars annually. How can sportswriters question this industry's business acumen?

Evidently the Orioles are considering opening the season with 13 pitchers. 13 pitchers in April, with off days and rainouts? I disagree with this approach, quantity does not equal quality. There are not enough innings to keep 13 pitchers sharp, particularly in April. As well, by the time you get to the 12th and 13th guys how effective do you expect them to be? On the other hand, maybe this is the natural evolution of the DH. I think the big staffs are more common in the AL for obvious reasons. Why have position players on the bench if they never play? Ultimately in the AL, where do you get more value, the 13th pitcher or the 2nd backup infielder or outfielder who practically never plays?

I blogged that a lot of us thought that Michael Bourn would play CF and hit leadoff come opening day for the Lynx. Well, we're wrong, he'll start the season on the bench in Philadelphia, although there is speculation that he could supplant Pat Burrell in LF at some point this season. Bourn's name is in both Buster Olney's & Peter Gammons columns today. Why is he suddenly getting this high profile attention? He isn't in the Baseball America Top 100 prospects, in fact he's rated #7 on the Phillies list and their system is considered thin. The baseball writers really need the season to start. I still think he'll be in Ottawa this season at some point, he needs to play.

Baseball writers have always made fun of the very unique manner in which players hurt themselves. On that theme, Joel Peralta missed some of camp this spring after poisoning himself eating "cow tail".

As I predicted, the PA is filing a grievance against the Padres over the release of Todd Walker.

The Indians are handing 3rd base to Andy Marte. I predict he'll end up in Buffalo this year. They would be a better team if they move Blake to 3rd and played Garko most days at 1st.

Sammy Sosa is leading the Rangers with 5 homers this spring. Let this serve as an example of the worthlessness of spring stats. Sosa will not finish the year in the bigs.

Canuck update

More bad news about Corey Koskie. Koskie has left Arizona, gone home before the end of spring training and he didn't play at all. Poor bastard, it looks more and more like his career is over.

I hope that Eric Gagné's career does not end in the same fashion as fellow hoser reliever Jeff Zimmerman.

Former Lynx
I'm disappionted that former Lynx Luis Terrero isn't breaking camp with the White Sox. I thought he played outstanding for the Lynx last season, I think he can be a fourth or fifth outfielder in the bigs.

Former Lynx David Newhan is breaking camp as a Met, I'm surprised he's not starting the year in New Orleans. He was very vocal about not wanting to play here but I don't think anybody noticed. I thought he might get booed after his remarks hit the papers but I never heard anything. I guess I shouldn't be surprised, you have to care a bit to boo.

From the basement March 27 07

2007-03-27T23:21:00.000-04:00

Arlen Specter made a thinly veiled threat today that Congress might revisit MLB's anti trust exemption in light of the DirecTV / EI deal which I and many others have been blogging about. At least I think that's what he means when he says ""When fans react, Congress reacts," he said, adding, "You may be well advised to act before we do." Neither Specter or John Kerry give a shit about baseball fans. Specter is doing the bidding on Capitol Hill for his corporate friends @ Comcast in his home state of PA. Comcast and the entire US cable industry are pissed at MLB & the NFL and I think the fight is far from over. ( The scrap between cable and the NFL over carriage fees for the NFL Network is a good one ) I don't understand the structure of American politics ( I do like Canadian politics, the results of the Quebec election yesterday are as intereting as baseball, well almost ) but from what I've read in Sports Business Journal the key politician on Capitol Hill vis a vis MLB's anti trust exemption is now Patrick Leahy. One thing I've learned over the years from watching the business side of sports south of the border is that the impression that the US is the country where there is little government and the marketplace is allowed to rule over all other considerations, is false. You can't open a lemonade stand in the US without the ok of politicians at every level, county, city, state & federal. Follow the goings on in Hennepin County with the Twins or in Miami with the Marlins if you want to see levels of bureaucracy.

On the subject of US politics, the most fun ( funnest? ) aspect of following Washington DC's attempts to bring the Nationals to their town was seeing Marion Barry's name again. ( He was opposed to the stadium deal, he's right it is bad public policy ) He's a councillor, well that's what we call it here in Ottawa. Wow, what a career! I guess it's crackhead week on this blog, first Josh Hamilton and now Marion Barry. I just think the word crackhead is funny.

On the subject of the Nationals....baseball websites and magazines ( it's been awhile since I bought a Bill Mazeroski's or Street & Smiths season preview mag, it used to be a big deal to me when they would hit the racks ) all have some sort of, they hope, unique "hook" to their team previews. At the www.hardballtimes the schtick is "Five Questions". Yesterday Richard Barbieri's Washington National's "Five Questions" preview was posted and it is written as a "McLaughlin Group" segment. Very nostalgic for me, I was a regular viewer in the 80's, I'm guessing that the program remains in production if Mr. Barbieri is lampooning it.

Well since I bashed the politicians I may as well take a shot at the lawyers as well. Mark Geragos who is representing Greg Anderson, Bond's "personal trainer", has also represented some of California's finest; Michael Jackson, Winona Ryder & Scott Peterson. How do you afford legal fees like that on a steroid peddler's income? If nothing else the Bonds witch hunt has cost Barry a big pile of cash in legal fees & endorsements.

Also March 26 at http://www.hardballtimes/, Vince Gennaro has a good piece on the value of RSN's to MLB teams. By Mr. Gennaro's count there are 12 teams "linked" to an RSN. Not surprisingly, looks like a good gig. This piece is also a reminder that teams operating losses / profits are worthless numbers. Andrew Zimbalist taught me what "related party transactions" are, a term that Mr. Gennaro also uses in this piece. The only figure that reveals anything about the financial health of pro sports teams is franchise value and even that can be misleading when you get into relationships with RSN's and stadiums etc. Delve into the Liberty Media purchase of the Braves from Time Warner and see if you can understand that deal with any level of sophistication.

Canuck update

Hoser C Maxim St. Pierre, mentioned here before, was dealt to the Brewers in exchange for RH Ben Hendrickson. Hendrickson was a big prospect at one time. I don't have the numbers but I'd be very surpirsed if many more prominent starting pitching prospects never pan out as opposed to position players. Obviously the biggest factor would be health, pitchers are more prone to injury, but also I think it's more difficult to predict if a guy has the acumen to master off speed pitches. The young pitchers that get the big bonuses throw hard and have raw physical talent. Raw physical talent or tools is more "projectable", as the Baseball America types would phrase it, at the positions.

IL inanities- Scranton is no longer the Red Barons but the Yankees. Syracuse is no longer the SkyChiefs but the Chiefs

From the basement March 26 07

2007-03-26T22:23:00.000-04:00

Hadn't seen this speculation before. Peter Gammons reported in his blog March 24 that the reason the infamous 2002 All Star game ended tied was "that a pitcher on one of the two teams was imbibing in the clubhouse and was not in condition to pitch, hence the game ended." Fantastic! Can't wait to find out who and the drug(s) of choice.

On the subject of the All Star Game, people that know me are always surprised that I never watch it. The outcome is inconsequential to the players and as a result, why should I care? ( Even with World Series home field advantage at stake, I still don't think the players care ) Game strategy is absent and I watch so much baseball that I've seen all these guys play anyway. As for the spectacle, I don't care, I'm interested in the competition and the industry. I don't watch the home run hitting contest either, it is boring and the balls have been juiced in the past making it even more silly. Oddly enough, I enjoy a three day break from baseball, well watching it anyway.

Strength of schedule, I've long been familiar with this sports term from watching the NFL. I am now seeing the same term used by baseball writers. We know that with the unbalanced schedule & interleague play that there are very significant disparities in, well, strength of schedule. I don't like it, I've never liked it, but it's here to stay because it is popular ( i.e. lucrative ). Yes, writers will moan this season as they do every season that there are interleague matchups that appeal to nobody, but overriding that are the hugely popular Mets / Yankees, Cubs / White Sox, Giants / A's etc. matchups. Rob Neyer blogged about it today in reaction to a piece in the NY Times by Alan Schwarz.

John Kerry continues to score some easy political points with Red Sox Nation over MLB's decision to move their out of market television package from cable to satellite. Tomorrow Kerry will chair a Senate Commerce Committee hearing on the deal, seems to be shaping up as purely a PR exercise. Bob DuPuy will be there on behalf of MLB & Commissioner Selig to be chastened by Senator Kerry. I got burnt out on this story, I've read a lot about it primarily on bizofbaseball.com & in Sports Business Journal and Buster Olney @ ESPN was big on it. I think that it's been overreported and overanalyzed. The deal is going through and the fans that have been filling up boards with their venom over it represent only the hardest of the hardcore. As big a geek as I am, I've never subscribed to the package ( Canadian distribution of the EI package is unaffected by the deal at this point ). There is only so much time to watch baseball. I'll get practically all the Jays games + Red Sox on WSBK, Mets on WPIX, Cubs and White Sox on WGN, plus ESPN Sunday nite baseball on TSN, plus I have Triple A in town both live and on tv. How much more do I need? Ok, I'll also be watching a bit on my PC via MLB.TV, I am a geek after all.

On the other side of New England politics, I took a very quick look at Curt Schilling's blog today. It's been a bit trendy this spring because he is Curt Schilling & it's novel for a jock to have a blog. ( Although I think Canseco was way ahead of the curve, does anybody remember his 1 800 line where you could receive the latest Jose update ? ) I was hoping he might be up on his soap box about politics but a brief scan didn't reveal any political talk. I find it very humorous that this mythical Red Sox ( the bloody sock ) is a Republican. That must be tough for Red Sox Nation to swallow.

I've noted here previously that the June Rule IV draft is really an auction, draft is a misnmoer. The biggest factor in the amateur draft is not where a team is picking or how many supplemental picks they have but how much money they are spending. No surprise, according to Gammons "One NL front-office executive says the Red Sox spent $13.5 million in last June's draft, the Yankees spent $13 million and the next biggest spender was at $5 million." These amounts do not include the money spent on International signings, increasingly significant with the decline in number of American players.

As I predicted, the Padres released Todd Walker in order to save about 3 million dollars. Walker won an arbitration case with the Padres in the offseason, he was awarded almost 4 million dollars. The Padres are on the hook for "only" about $900,000 of the deal by releasing him at this point. There have been rumors for awhile that the PA might challenge his release.

A lot is being written, including here, about how horrible the Nationals will be this year. Oddly enough I think their Columbus Triple A team will be pretty good. They have so many "4A" vets that they should field a very competitive team in the IL.

Local RH Philippe Aumont gets a mention in Keith Law's ESPN blog today. Mr. Law thinks that Aumont's performance in FLA this month with Team Canada was impressive enough to warrant selection in the "top 5 - 10 picks". Harden, Bédard, Francis, Loewen...MLB is finding some big time arms up here. I think this trend will continue, fewer American kids playing ball, the teams have to go abroad to find talent.

I've been an avid fan of Triple A baseball for the past 15 years and I know that the single biggest factor for on the field success is the health of the parent team. Having said that, it appears that the Lynx could be in for a challenging beginning to the season. The Phillies have 2 pitchers ( Garcia & Leiber ) + 1 catcher ( Ruiz ) hurting with less than 2 weeks to go before the Lynx season opener.

From the basement March 25 07

2007-03-25T17:09:00.000-04:00

Tuned in to the Jays broadcast of game vs. Reds. midway through.

Bottom 6 - Jamie Campbell calls Reds 1B and Canuck Joey Votto, the "Reds #1 prospect." I've written here before about Votto and yes he is a very good prospect, in fact I think the next everyday Canuck in the bigs, but he is definitely not #1 in the Reds system. Homer Bailey, RH starter is rated #5 in the Baseball America Top 100 prospects list. Get out to Lynx Stadium when Louisville comes to town and catch both these guys ( if they're not already Reds ). Votto k'd lookin in the bottom of the sixth vs. Downs. He k'd again, this time swingin, vs. Accardo in the 9th.

Also bottom of 6, just before commercial, Mr. Campbell tells us that it was reported on ESPN last year that Vernon Wells would not resign with the Jays. Mr. Campbell did not name names, but he must be referring to former Jays in house "stat geek" Keith Law who got this wrong in his ESPN blog on August 18 last season. Mr. Law had resigned / been dismissed earlier last season from the Jays. See my posting from January 30 on Mr. Law's very pointed remarks about the Jays, Wells & African American players. Did Law quit or did J.P. can him and what did they disagree on? I've never seen an explanation from either party. Mr. Law seems to have become an enemy of Blue Jay fans, not only is Mr. Campbell indirectly slagging him but I've seen Jays fans doing the same on a few boards.

This game was my first glimpse at few players who I am interested in. Votto for purely nationalistic motives and Josh Hamilton because he has been one of the biggest soap operas in baseball the last handful of years. If you don't know who Hamilton is then you probably have no interest in my blog but anyway...from one of the best prospects supposedly EVER ( he got the bonus money to prove it from Tampa Bay ) to crack addict and back to playing baseball. I've known who he is since he was drafted #1 in 1999, and that last summer he played in his first minor league game in 4 years due to his crack addiciton. But Hamilton's story is quickly becoming more and more high profile. You no longer have to read Baseball America to find out what's up with Hamilton, he has been all over ESPN ( and I assume all the major sports media ) this spring. Peter Gammons is musing along with Barry Levinson that perhaps Hamilton is the real life ROY HOBBS!! How's that for hype, comparison to a movie myth! Jayson Stark ( I admit I only glanced at it ) wrote some lengthy tug at the heart strings, overcoming addiciton, sentimental thing about it and I see other writers complimenting him on the piece's brilliance. GAG ME! Good for Josh Hamilton, I'm happy for him that he is not doing crack although in honesty I never cared beyond the fact that the D Rays wasted the #1 overall pick in 99 on a crackhead. I don't like this type of sports "reporting", the emotional, personal "story" side of it. I don't care one bit about the players personal lives ( beyond some of the unintentionally funny / dumb things they do that get them in trouble ). How is it that veteran reporters like Stark & Gammons can still get dewey eyed about this sort of "overcoming adversity / survival" story? They know, better than me, that a lot of these pro players are obnoxious, spoiled and arrogant. How can they still be sentimental? But, I am, as Mr. Gammons has described us, one who writes from between walls. ( Mine are covered with that fake wood grain particle board popular in the 70's, I adore it ). In fairness to Mr.'s Gammons and Stark, guys like Josh Hamilton don't visit my basement, they play baseball and you don't know them if you're in your basement. Maybe if I met the man I wouldn't be so smug and dismissive. Also, as someone in his basement wouldn't know, maybe the editors at ESPN know that a lot of fans do enjoy these stories and request that writers provide them. If Hamilton has a good year and I think he can, ( Griffey always gets hurt plus Great American Ball Park is a great hitters park ) he's gonna be a big story. Bigger than the sports media alone. Oprah, PEOPLE, Leno, come to the White House big.

Bottom of 8. Mr. Campbell tells us that he doesn't think the Jays are concerned that they don't have a "situational" LH in the pen because LH hitters batted only .214 against Jason Frasor last season. Mr. Campbell often quotes stats but a lot of them are irrelevant. Frasor pitched 18.2 innings against LH hitters last season. What the stat geeks call "the sample" is too small to be of any worth.

From the basement March 22 07

2007-03-23T00:00:00.000-04:00

Tony LaRussa DUI. Good, maybe it will take some of the lustre off the "genius", but I doubt it. Why are reporters so impressed with him? Is it because he is a lawyer? Anyway, the DUI charge made me think of Billy Martin's ( a true baseball genius and helluva lot more fun ) comment about picking a coaching staff. I'm paraphrasing but it's along the lines of, pick 5 guys you like to drink with and a sixth who'll stay sober and drive everybody home. As we know, Martin was killed in a drunk driving accident. He was a passenger in a vehicle driven by a drunk who also happened to be his bartender.

Isn't Doc Halladay's reluctance to use his cut fastball and declining SO/IP ratio evidence that he is not 100% healthy?

More reports out of Arizona that Bonds is moving very well, an indication that his legs are healthier than the past few seasons. Look out. The guy nobody wants to talk about will be easily the story of the season.

Bud Black, the new manager in San Diego and longtime pitching coach, might be do something in San Diego that he did in Anaheim. The Padres might have a bullpen comprised solely of RH's. Most teams employ at least one "situational" lefty in the pen, but ultimately who cares which hand you throw with, it's performance that matters.

Rob Neyer recently started "blogging" on ESPN. I've made fun of him before, he being the most prominent "seamhead / SABR guy" in the mainstream media, but I like his blog better than his column. The blog so far is less about statistical arcania ( i.e. VORP ) and more about the day to day grist of the goings on in MLB. The guy does know baseball.

QUOTES

Good quote in Buster Olney's blog, courtesy of Andrew Freidman of the D Rays, on spring training stats. "There is very little correlation between spring stats and regular-season stats," said Friedman. "The level of competition is one reason, and sample size is another.

Since the recent passing of former Commissioner Bowie Kuhn, the drastic escalation of player salaries and flourishing of the PA under his tenure has been widely mentioned. On that subject a quote from living legend Marvin Miller “His inability to distinguish between reality and his prejudices, his lack of concern for the rights of players, sections of the press, and even the stray unpopular owner—all combined to make Kuhn a vital ingredient in the growth and strength of the union. To paraphrase Voltaire on God, if Bowie Kuhn had never existed, we would have had to invent him.” Thanks to Maury Brown at bizofbaseball.com

Roger Noll, Economics Professor at Stanford, makes an interesting comment, and one that I wholeheartedly agree with, on the subject of MLB's approach to dealing with "PEDs". ( As I'm seeing them referenced more and more frequently. ) "Kuhn vigorously tried to cleanse baseball of hard drugs, which did not go down well with some owners when a valuable player was suspended. While his policies and actions may have been excessively harsh, at least they were clear and fairly implemented, unlike baseball's current policies and practices regarding performance-enhancing drugs." Management in pro sports use drug policies to punish players who step out of line. The story is not that the athletes take PED's, it's the politics of who gets tested when and if they are tipped as to when they will be tested and are the results of the test made public or ignored. What percentage of players in the NFL are juiced? What percentage of the same group test positive? To what do we attribute the discrepancy in the 2 numbers? I think the explanations run deeper than simply that the cheaters are ahead of the regulators in the doping labs.

From the basement March 20 07

2007-03-20T17:39:00.000-04:00

MLB has staged games in Japan, is making forays into China, and now there is speculation that new frontiers include Australia, Taiwan & South Korea. They aren't dumb, they know the game is dying in North America, all the fans are old white guys like me.

I caught the tail end of Jeff Blair's conversation with Bob McCown yesterday and the subject was Chacin's DUI charge. I'm in Blair's corner, it's irrelevant. A baseball player drunk, ok driving drunk at approx 3:30 AM, several hours before he is to pitch, this is notable? What do you think young, rich, irresponsible pro jocks do? It's nothing new, Mickey Mantle admitted that drinking took years off his career and that hangovers hampered his performance. Why do you think amphetamines, Red Bull, etc. are staples in MLB clubhouses? ( Well from what I read they are, I am in my basement after all)

I know stalking isn't funny, but then again....Bob Uecker? Obsessed with Bob Uecker?

Watched, literally, one out in the Phillies vs Twins game a few days ago and then my family came home, off to swimming. But I did see a Michael Bourn AB. We'll all be surprised if he is not the Lynx CF & leadoff hitter opening day. He has been billed as a Kenny Lofton type player and looked the part, if you can gleen anything from 1 AB ( a flyout ). The AB was against Twins SP prospect Kevin Slowey, who is expected to start the season in Rochester. I had seen Slowey pitch earlier this spring, his stuff looks pretty good.

MINOR LEAGUE MINUTIAE

If you're a baseball geek, and I think I qualify, you might read the Minor League Transactions in Baseball America. I saw some names there in todays update which I haven't seen in awhile. The Mets signed former Lynx ( very former, last here in 97 ) Jose Paniagua, where has he been? I haven't seen his name in a long time. The last stats I can find for him, in affiliated ball, are from 03. Has he been playing Indy? He's still only 33, ( although the age of players from the Dominican Republic signed pre 9 / 11 is often a ballpark # ) which surprised me. 357 innings pitched at the big league level over 7 seasons. RHP Justin Miller was signed by the Phillies. I wonder how healthy he is, the only stats I can find from last season are 7 IP with Durham. You have to think that health permitting Miller is ticketed for Ottawa. Is this the same Justin Miller whose tatoos ran afoul of MLB when he was a Blue Jay? Joey McLaughlin was released by the Rangers. No not the Joey McLaughlin who frequently broke the hearts of Blue Jays fans in the early 80's but his son. I didn't know there was a Joey McLaughlin Jr. playing pro ball until I saw this today and poked around the Web. Finally, one of my favorite former Lynx, Geronomo Gil ( I love the fat guys ) signed with Colorado.

Speaking of fat ballplayers, one of the greatest ever, David Wells was recently diagnosed with Type 2 diabetes. In my fantasies he becomes the first Cy Young Award winner with that condition. I also heard on a recent Padres broadcast that he has set a record for uniform size ( I don't remember the size ). Remember late last season he missed a start with gout? How frequently do you see pro athletes sidelined with gout!? Go Boomer!

The name I keep looking for and can't find is Keith Reed. The former Lynx and former Oriole 1st rounder had the best season of his career last year and I haven't seen his name since. I could always see why he was a 1st rounder, fast, power, great arm ( voted best outfield arm in the IL in a BA poll last season ), but he always struggled to hit consistently.

Canuck update

Scott Mathieson, starting pitcher in the Phillies organization, had TJ surgery in September. According to Baseball America March 19, his recovery is going great, ahead of schedule. I had ruled out seeing him here this season, based on his profile in the BA Phillies Top 10 prospects earlier this winter, but I am more optimistic now. Carl at http://ottawalynx.blogspot.com/ was ahead of me on this one.

From the basement March 18 07

2007-03-18T12:57:00.000-04:00

I keep saying that I don't think baseball fans outside of us chattering classes care about steroids, beyond hating Bonds. Evidence supporting my theory; Sports Business Journal reports in their most recent edition that MLB could well set a fourth consecutive attendance record this season. Teams across the board, from big market to mid to even Tampay Bay, are experiencing sales ahead of last season's record pace. How pissed can John Q baseball fan be if they are buying tickets in record numbers? Money talks, bs walks. Bonds is going to draw big, disdainful, loud, crowds and they will love every moment of hating him. What a contrast to the McGwire All American love in.

I've been wondering why Arte Moreno's reaction to the Gary Matthews HGH / steroids story was so unusually visceral and public. A good take on this subject by Thom Loverro in The Washington Times http://www.washtimes.com/sports/20070317-124332-3687r.htm Mr. Loverro also speculates on Commissioner Selig's very public support of Mr. Moreno's loud sabre rattling. Mr. Loverro thinks that Selig's words on the Matthews situation are meant to position himself on his seemingly imminent castigating of Bonds ( in whatever forms that will take ). Mr. Loverro agrees with opinions previously expressed here, that Selig will use the Mitchell report as a springboard to disciplining / embarassing Bonds. He also speculates that post Mitchell we could see another round of steroid hearings in Congress. No doubt, Bonds is so unpopular that some politicians won't be able to resist the opportunity to score some easy points at his expense. The steroids story is about Bonds and nobody but Bonds.

Commissioner Selig has done an extraordinary job as Commissioner ( if you're an owner, and only their opinion matters on this subject ). The industry's revenues have grown massively during his tenure. There has been unprecedented labor peace, which every baseball fan should be thankful for ( record revenues can solve a lot of labor issues ), and parity has largely been achieved through Revenue Sharing, Luxury Taxes and the increasing amount of cash being distributed via the Central fund. Unfortunately, Selig's legacy will be largely determined by how he treats Bonds after he hits # 756. Most fans and baseball media are not interested in the aforementioned industry issues, but they are interested in how Selig will treat Bonds. Selig will put Bonds "in his place" ( infer from that what you wish ) to the appeasement of baseball fans across North America. Bud will finally "get it right" with the fans after years of unpopularity.

SBJ reports that the Mets are projecting record attendance of 3.8 million this season, double the numbers they attracted a short 4 years ago. The Mets are joining the Yankees and Red Sox as the superpowers in MLB. With the launch last season of SNY ( the Mets RSN ), and Citifield opening in 09 the Mets will have levelled the playing field with the Yanks and BoSox.

I've long thought that Pete Rose is dumb and not because he got caught gambling on baseball. I think he is dumb because he has so consistently and so completely botched his attempts to gain readmission into the closed club that is MLB. All Rose had to do was make a very humble and very public apology to the "game", cry a bit, tell us how ashamed he is, grovel, enter a "recovery program", tell us what a poor role model he has been to "the youth" , and how grateful and humbled he would be to be considered for admission into Cooperstown, admit that no one indiviual is bigger than the "National Pastime" etc. In fact MLB would've loved it, for christs sake they would even have scripted the whole goddam show for him. Most importantly, fans loved Rose and would quickly have forgiven him had he sold it properly. He's the type of player fans like, caucasian, Charlie Hustle, little guy, big heart, great work ethic etc. Instead we have this most recent ham handed attempt at restoring his image with this new claim that he bet on the Reds to win every night when he was their manager. Not only does it contradict his earlier statements about gambling on Reds games but John Dowd and Fay Vincent are still around to tell anyone who wants to listen that Rose's most recent comments contradict drastically with the findings of their investigation. Is it too late for a redemptive ending to this tale? Has Rose lost all credibility? I have no sympathy, I thought he was an ass when he played.

Canuck update.

According to ROTOWIRE March 16, local guy Pete Laforest is in contention to break camp as the Padres #2 C. As I noted a while back, Laforest started camp as the #4 or #5 C, but with Todd Greene hurt and Rob Bowen struggling....I'm skeptical. I wonder if the Padres are trying to motivate Bowen by telling the press that they are considering other options for his job.

Reds GM Jim Bowden is on the record as saying that hoser Shawn Hill will break camp in the Nationals rotation. I think the Nationals will be a story this season. I think they will be historically bad, I'm hardly alone, I've seen them described as a team of 4A guys. Save for about 6 guys, Schneider ( former Lynx ), Johnson ( hurt ), Lopez, Zimmerman, Cordero & Patterson, yes I agree. Buster Olney reports that Major League scouts are engaging in a new sport, predicting the number of Nationals losses this season. "The low end is 105 losses," one scout said, "and it goes up to 130. And so far, most of the action is near 130." I think Bowden has to deal Cordero, he is just waiting for some closers to implode or get injured around the league, which will increase Cordero's value. The Nationals will be so bad for at least the next few years that having a quality closer is of no benefit to them. They need prospects, Cordero will bring them 2 or maybe 3.

From the basement March 15 07

2007-03-15T18:44:00.000-04:00

I have written here before about the declining numbers of African Americans playing MLB. The subject is gathering momentum amongst baseball's chattering classes. This week there was an AP story in which C.C. Sabathia lamented the decline. Also this week Peter Gammons wrote a piece praising Tori Hunter for acting as a role model for fellow African American players as well as promoting baseball in urban African American communities. As well, MLB has officially acknowledged the situation and is busily spinning the issue. The MLB Urban Youth Academy in Compton is soon to open, Frank Robinson who was recently hired to work with Jimmie Lee Solomon on these sorts of "minority initiatives" was on hand for the photo op. MLB is staging a 2 day media event in Memphis, March 30 - 31, the theme is baseball and civil rights. March 30 MLB will host a roundtable discussion featuring amongst others the aforementioned Mr. Gammons. The following day MLB will stage the inaugural Civil Rights exhibition game preceded by the inaugural Beacon Awards luncheon, amongst the recipients will be Spike Lee and Buck O'Neill. In a previous post I commented on an opinion piece by Ms Diane Grassi which was published on bizofbaseball.com, in which she is very critical of MLB and it's relationship ( or absence of one ) with African Americans. Amongst her comments, why is MLB staging a Civil Rights game if no African Americans will be watching? or words to that effect.

I think MLB is paying lip service to the issue. MLB wants to be perceived as proactive and working with the African American community ( whatever that means ) on bringing them back to the game but a critic like Ms. Grassi would point out that teams have made much, much larger investements in developing players in the Dominican Republic and Venezuala ( pre Chavez ) than they have in "inner city" US communities.

Guys like me read FORTY MILLION DOLLAR SLAVES and opinion pieces of the like and I blog about the subject as well because I think it's interesting and revealing but in real terms the chatter we are hearing about the disappearing African American in US baseball is limited to a very small group of us. As I've blogged before I think the same thing about steroids in the game, everybody hates Bonds, but beyond that I don't think fans care. The rank & file guy that goes to an MLB game doesn't read this stuff, and that's not meant as a criticism.

The role of Liberty Media in MLB gets more and more interesting. As we know they recently purchased the Braves from Time Warner ( pending approval from the owners ) and they also recently purchased DirecTV ( which will be the sole provider of MLB's out of market Extra Innings package.) We also knew that they hold an interest in an online gambling business, which rasied some eyebrows, but now and maybe most importantly this: According to Sports Business Journal, Liberty Media is now in control of CDM Fantasy Sports. That should ring a bell, CDM Fantasy Sports "is locked in a bitter legal dispute against MLB Advanced Media and the MLB Players Association over the unlicensed use of players names and statistics in commercial fantasy games." There is huge money at stake here not only for MLB but for all pro sports. As I previously blogged, all the US based pro leagues of any note file "amicus briefs" ( I don't know from that ) on behalf of MLBAM and the MLBPA in the appeals filings. I'm very curious how this plays out.

Tuesday nite I was watching a few innings of the Padres vs the Rockies. I have seen a couple of AB's by former Lynx. Jamey Carroll was in the game for the Rockies ( I agree with Naete Sager, I think Rox is wrong ). Carroll proved himself a capable everyday player last season at 2nd after having had the reputation as a backup infielder. However I keep reading that the Rockies will give Kaz Matsui every opportunity to play everyday at 2nd this season. Will Carroll see some time at short if much hyped rookie SS Troy Tulowitzki struggles ( he's also a little banged up presently ) or will the AB's go to former starter Clint Barmes? Former Lynx Jack Cust was playing for the Padres, he was reassigned to minor league camp a day or two later, don't know if he accepted the assignment. Karl, does he hold the Lynx season record for walks? I thought Cust would hit big time for the Lynx, he is an accomplished Triple A power hitter but didn't put up the big numbers here. I've never seen the stats but I think that Lynx Stadium is not a good park for home run hitters ( fine with me, I like the old school small ball ). Karl, have you seen the stats over they years on this? One more question for Lynx blogger Karl, Scott Strickland is pitching for the Padres, is he a former Lynx? I know he is a former Expo. I think he's been struggling with arm trouble the past few years. Classic spring training finish to this "tilt" ( I feel like Tank McNamara, sic?) 5-5 tie, 10 innings.

From the basement March 12 07

2007-03-12T16:44:00.000-04:00

I saw the name of my favorite baseball player, in any era, in the transactions this morning. Kazuhito Tadano was reassigned to the minor league camp of the A's. Tadano is a right handed relief pitcher. He struck out 60 batters in 56 2/3 innings last year in Sacramento of the PCL. He'll be 27 next month. He has pitched a total of 54 1/3 big league innings, all with Cleveland. Why is Tadano my favorite player, ever? To the best of my knowledge he is the only player in the history of the game who is / has been, a gay porn actor/performer/artist/thespian, I don't know the correct term. How's that for a " 2 sport" perfomer? It gets better, he claims that he is NOT GAY! He does not deny that he "appears" in a gay porno made in Japan, but he denies being gay. His explanation is along the lines of, he was receiving not participating, or something like that. His rationale puts him in the same camp along with William Jefferson Clinton, who asserted that " I did not have sex with that woman ". ( I still don't know how his "DNA" got on the GAP dress, but I digress ). Any ball player who can be described as "Clintonian" is ok with me. On a more serious note, at least he has been able to play pro ball in the US, the Japanese pro leagues wouldn't go near him because of the video.

Every year, spring training is over analyzed and dissected. Who is going North? How will the batting order be structured? Who is in the rotation? What's the pecking order in the pen? 11 or 12 pitchers? I'm a geek and I follow all the minutiae of it but really it's about the day to day grind of the baseball media's requirement to provide content, all day, every day. We all know that the 25 players that go north are only some of the players that will play for the big team this season. Beginning opening day players get hurt, exceed expectations, disappoint, and the carousel starts going round. The makeup of a baseball team is fluid, year round, spring training is only one part of the cycle.

The most notable news of spring training is who's hurt. As usual, pitchers are at the front of the injury line. Cliff Lee, Josh Johnson & Mike Hampton will all start the year on the DL, Kris Benson is probably out for the season, and it's still only March 12.

It's time for the big leaguers to get more game action, today there were a raft of players from a bunch of teams reassinged to minor league camps, including a whole bunch of guys who were in the Phillies camp that will be freezing their rear ends off soon here in Ottawa.

From the basement March 11 07

2007-03-11T19:44:00.000-04:00

I found my old Vancouver Canadians hat this winter when I cleaned out the basement. One of my in laws from BC gave it to me years ago, nice gift. As a tribute to the demise of Triple A baseball in Canada ( Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton & soon Ottawa ) I will wear it when I go to Ottawa Lynx games this season. What happened to affiliated ball in Canada? London had AA at one time, there was pro ball in Medicine Hat, obviously the Expos, the aforementioned Triple A
teams....Jeffrey Simpson tried to explain it in the Globe & Mail last summer, and I think got it wrong.

I hope I'm wrong but I think Edmonton & Calgary aren't long for the Northern League either.

Maybe next season, with no pro ball in Ottawa any longer, I'll head to Quebec City for a few Can Am league games. I read this week that Rich Garces just signed with a Can Am league team. He had some really strong seasons with the Red Sox.

Friday nite I tuned in to some of the Indians vs Pirates game. A definite inidication that it is still very early in spring training, there are 2 players in the starting lineups that even a Geek like me has never heard of. Don Kelly was the starting SS for the Pirates and Wyatt Toregasis the starting C for the Indians.

This afternoon I watched some of the A's vs Angels game and former Lynx fan favorite ( when there were Lynx fans ) Curtis Pride played for the Angels. He's 38 now, what a great career. He signed with the Mets in 86 and made his big league debut with the Expos in 93. Curtis has played in the bigs in parts of 11 seasons since, amassing 796 AB's. He was a very good player here, good outfielder, fast on the basepaths and good sock.

Daric Barton just hit one out for the A's. Mark Gubicza ( wow, a long time since I heard that name ) the color guy on the Angels broadcast, goes into some schpiel about pitch selection. I know he's a former big league pitcher and I'm a guy in his basement but I always think this sort of analysis is overstated. If the pitcher "hits his spot", "makes his pitch", whatever, more often than not the ball won't be hit hard. The ball gets hit hard when the pitcher misses. It's sports, it's about athletes executing plays, it ain't chess.

I guess Jeromy Burnitz doesn't want to ride the buses in Triple A, he's announced his retirement. He hit 16 homers in 313 AB's with Pittsburgh last year, I'm certain he could get a minor league deal with somebody if he wanted. I remember watching him here on his way up as a Norfolk Tide. Will he get the itch again?

I see Mark Prior will make his next appearance in a minor league game. I'm not surprised, I watched him pitch yesterday and felt sorry for him. His fastball was 86 - 88 ( according to the Cubs broadcast, so subtract a homer factor off those numbers ) and threw very few breaking balls. Is he done forever as a frontline starter?

Damian Jackson is pissed that the Dodgers released him today, says he's done with baseball. I doubt it, he's still 33, I suspect he'll be in Triple A somewhere this season. Players of his caliber command a pretty decent wage in Triple A.

I was reading about Corey Koskie this weekend and you have to wonder if his career isn't soon over. If so, he has been one of the best Canadian players of his era.

FORTY MILLION DOLLAR SLAVES

2007-03-07T21:27:00.000-05:00

Went to Mexico last week and read the book FORTY MILLION DOLLAR SLAVES by NY Times sports reporter William Rhoden, published last year.

Mr. Rhoden argues convincingly that North American professional and college sports is a plantation with African Americans in the role of slaves and wealthy non African American individuals, corporations and universities as the plantation owners.

The title is a reference to a comment made by a heckler towards African American NBA player Larry Johnson, " Johnson, you're nothing but a $40 million slave", during a timeout in a 2001 game in Los Angeles. Johnson had famously referred to himself and some of his NY Knicks teammates as "rebel slaves" during the previous season's playoffs.

The book chronicles the African American role in sports from antebellum contests involving slaves from different plantations to the present.

Since this is a blog devoted to baseball I will limit my comments about FORTY MILLION DOLLAR SLAVES to some of the portions pertaining to this sport.

The evolution and demise of The Negro Leagues.

I was already aware of the opinion articulated by Mr. Rhoden that the demise of The Negro Leagues, brought about by the racial integration of MLB, was a defeat for African Americans. I had not seen the argument detailed so extensively.

Mr. Rhoden tells the story of African American Arthur "Rube" Foster, who he describes as a "pioneer". Mr. Foster was a baseball player but is most important for founding the Negro National League in 1920. Mr. Foster is described as a "man of of clear, resolute, and uncompromising vision: He wanted a professional league of black baseball that was owned, organized, managed and played by African Americans." "Foster's Negro National League created a universe in which the black presence was accepted, nurtured, and celebrated. The league became a base of power for African Americans in the rapidly growing industry of baseball."

According to Mr. Rhoden, Mr. Foster realized that the integration of baseball was inevitable, however Mr. Foster's vision for integrating the game was a positive one for African Americans. "When integration came, Foster wanted the Negro League he envisioned to have a monopoly on the commodity that Major League Baseball would desperately need: black ballplayers." "He wanted......that when the national pastime was integrated, the NNL would be in a position to dictate rather than be dictated to. His theory was that the league's strongest teams would be absorbed intact, not picked apart like a carcass by so many buzzards." In 1926 Mr. Foster met with AL president Ban Johnson and Yankees manager John McGraw to discuss the possibility of his Chicago based American Giants playing "big-league teams that visited Chicago on their off days. Commissioner Kenesaw Mountain Landis apparently killed the idea...." Mr. Foster died in 1930 and his worst fears for the integration of baseball, that "white ball would take what it needed, then crush black ball to pieces and watch it die." were realized decades later.

Jackie Robinson desegregated Major League Baseball in 1947, a mythologized event not only in Amercian sports but in American popular culture. It was the beginning of the end of black baseball in America. "Black baseball owners could not agree on a strategy. The owners were torn between wanting integration and wanting to remain a viable business. These latter-day owners of Negro League baseball mistakenly felt that they would be involved - in a profitable way - with the "integration" process. Some felt that their teams might be purchased and incorporated into the Major League Baseball minor-league system. This was not part of the plan, however. The treatment of the Negro Leagues was brutal and disrespectful." "Baseball was unofficially integrated in 1945 when Robinson signed a contract with Montreal." "In 1947, Robinson's contract was purchased by the Dodgers. Just one year later, in 1948, the black leagues were in shambles." "The final blow for the Negro Leagues came in 1951 when the Southern-based network of minor-league baseball teams was desegregated. Now the major leagues had no use for the Negro Leagues, and they slowly died." "By the 1960's, black baseball was effectively dead: Major League Baseball had prevailed." "A black institution was dead, while a white institution grew richer and stronger. This was the end result of integration."

"..Rube Foster has become a mere footnote in the epic story of sports integration in which Jackie Robinson is a central character. In some ways, however, Foster is an even more significant figure than Robinson. Foster used black resources to build a baseball league that nurtured talents like Robinson while establishing an economically viable alternative to Major League Baseball. Robinson became a symbol of the process of integration, a process that ultimately enriched white institutions while weakening and in many cases destroying black institutions. White America determined the pattern of integration; the white power structure chose blacks who made whites feel comfortable, who more or less accepted the vagaries of racism. This was the Jackie Robinson model of how an integration-worthy African-American behaved: taking abuse, turning the other cheek, tying oneself in knots, holding one's tongue, never showing anger, waiting for racist sensibilities to smolder and die out - if your spirit didn't die first. This model was hardly progress for black athletes. It was, in fact, a reversal of the paradigm for black involvement in sports that Foster and others had created out of a hard necessity."

I doubt that Mr. Rhoden's viewpoints will be articulated at MLB's official celebration of the 60th anniversary of Mr. Robinson's breaking the color barrier on April 15 at Dodger Stadium. Bud Selig has called Robinson's historic achievement: "Baseball's proudest and most powerful moment."

Willie Mays

Willie Mays is one of Mr. Rhoden's heroes. Rhoden supposes that Mays is one of the most important of a generation of African American athletes that brought a decidedly "black" style to American professional sports. The "basket catch", his cap often flying off while running the bases, the daring baserunning ( common in the Negro Leagues ) stealing third, going first to third on infield groundouts, were a stark contrast to the conservative style of play in MLB that preceded it. This distinct African American "style" on the field of play remains prominent in all major American sports, popular with fans and is continually copied and emulated. "Willie Mays introduced a flair and cool style in sports. He introduced the Black Thing to a mainstream public that devoured it - and has been devouring it ever since. The popularity of sports that blacks dominate today coincided with the beginning of this stylistic transformation of the game, the opening up of the game to this new way of playing. Willie Mays presaged this stylistic contour in sports." "In virtually every decade since the 1950's, black athletes have been at the core of some stylistic or structural innovation in sports. From the alley-oop pass and the spin move in basketball to the spike and the ritual of the end-zone shimmy in football. From slapping palms to donning baggy pants and executing wildly creative dunks and elaborate end-zone celebrations, the African American presence in sports has redefined and reordered the traditional way of doing things."

"Willie Mays was the first young African American sports superstar. Jackie Robinson was twenty-eight when he reached the majors, while Mays joined the Giants at age twenty. He was the symbol of a young, black vitality that mainstream America had never seen because African Americans had thus far been excluded from mainstream sport. Mays became as significant to the late 1950's as Jackie Robinson had been in the late 1940's. Robinson integrated sports racially, but Mays completed the job, integrating sports sytlistically. Where Robinson's great significance had been in being "the first," Mays's significance was his great talent and distinctive style. Where Robinson's presence in major-league sports announced that black players were good enough to compete, Mays's generation announced that black athletes could do more than compete: They could redefine the very game."

Mr. Rhoden recalls that not everyone was as enthralled with Mays as he was. "..in his era, white fans never fully identified with him. Mays arrived at the Polo Grounds for the 1951 season four years after Jackie Robinson had integrated baseball, and the people who ran sport and business were not certain that the middle-class Americans who were their customers were ready for African Americans to be promoted as stars, like Mickey Mantle or Joe DiMaggio or Ted Williams."

Mr. Rhoden goes on to argue that while Mays was as great a player as Mantle, he never ascended to the same exalted heights as Mantle in American folklore due to race.

Curt Flood

We all know that Curt Flood, an African American, was the first baseball player to challenge the industry's Reserve Clause in 1970. Mr. Rhoden argues that race played a crucial role in forming Mr. Flood's opinions about labor relations in his industry and his resolve to change the rules governing those relationships.

"Curt Flood was the first person I ever heard use a plantation metaphor in connection with professional athletes." "In the winter of 1969, he was traded from the St. Louis Cardinals, where he had played since 1958, to Philadelphia." "In one of the most significant communications in sports labor history, Flood wrote to then baseball commissioner Bowie Kuhn that "after twelve years in the major leagues, I do not feel that I am a piece of property to be bought and sold irrespective of my wishes." "This mode of treatment was legitimized by the Reserve Clause in Major League Baseball." "The reserve system was the same system used in the South where the plantation owner owned all the houses that you live in," Flood said." "In Flood's mind a divide between players and the owners was ingrained in their roles: "They're the ranchers, and we're the cattle." "The owners were given license to do this by the federal government. The Reserve Clause prevented players from moving to another team unless they were traded or sold. Flood challenged the fairness of a system that kept players in perpetual servitude to their teams at the owners' pleasure." "Flood said that he believed he had suffered harder times than white players; the change in black consciousness in recent years had made him "more sensitive to injustice in every area of my life." "Many white players never thought of themselves as being on a plantation or as being only so much chattel. But the legacy of black people in sports had sensitized Flood; that history had tuned him in to a different frequency than white players had access to."

The Supreme Court ruled against Flood in 1972. Three years later two white players, Andy Messersmith and Dave McNally, won free agency for players. Mr. Flood believes race was a factor in the outcome of both decisions. "Flood said that he was happy for the victory, but that he felt the decisions had a tinge of racism. "It disappointed me that I didn't win," Flood said, "but I had to feel that somewhere in the equation, America was showing its racism again. They were merely waiting for someone else to win that case."

As Marvin Miller, then an attorney for the players' union, had warned Flood about the consequences of challenging the owners, Flood remained outside the game for the most part until his death in 1997.

This wouldn't be my blog if I didn't mention Barry Bonds. I have written here in the past that I believe much of American sports fans enmity towards Bonds stems from the type of African American athlete that he is, namely arrogant and ungrateful. Mr. Rhoden makes reference many times to the notion that fans prefer African American athletes to adopt a public persona of "just happy to be here." Mr. Rhoden believes that this remains the case today as it has been throughout the history of the African American athlete.

Mr. Rhoden laments often in the book that contemporary African American athletes have no understanding of the sacrifices and gains made by those that came before them and that this lends itself to complacent, compliant behavior, "just happy to be here" attitudes. Barry Bonds is intimately familiar with the history of the African American ballplayer post integration. Willie Mays is Barry Bonds' godfather. Don't think that Bonds is unaware that Mays ate in segregated restaurants and stayed in segregated hotels while he was filling stands and lining the pockets of the owners. Don't think that Bonds is unaware that his godfather is not revered to the same degree as Mantle because of his race. Don't think that Bonds is unaware of the hostility that some of the sports media displayed towards Mays as a result of his race. Barry's father Bobby, a star in MLB in the 70's, was active in the PA and had often adversarial relationships with management & media. Barry Bonds has never been, and never will be, the "just happy to be here" African American that America accepts.

I have commented here before about the steep decline in the number of African American players in MLB. Mr. Rhoden quotes a figure of 9% at the beginning of the 06 season. With MLB making official forays into Asia, Africa and increasing numbers of players coming from Latin America, perhaps we should reflect on these words from Mr. Rhoden. "History suggests that African American athletes should be ever on the lookout. Their predecessors were excluded, blocked, persecuted, and eased out when white owners and management decided they weren't needed or wanted."

Remember, April 15 is Jackie Robinson day. Mark your calendar.

From the basement Feb 23 07

2007-02-23T18:55:00.000-05:00

MLB.com is a shill for the owners. Yesterday there was a fluff piece on the George Mitchell investigation, his stormtroopers are touring Spring Training. The last paragraph of the story is I think indicative of what we're going to be seeing from MLB in their efforts to manage the "issue".

"In the meantime, documented steroid use at the big-league level has become almost infinitesimal, down from the 5-to-7 percent of players who tested positive in 2003. Last season, no player on the 25-man roster of the 30 teams tested positive. It was announced after the postseason that Mets reliever Guillermo Mota had tested positive and he will be suspended the requisite 50 games to open the 2007 season."

So MLB is going to be pounding home two messages on the steroid front. 1. George Mitchell will tell us as definitively as anyone can, what happened. 2. Testing is working, positive tests are on the decline ( see paragraph above ).

As I said before, the results of the 03 "anonymous" testing that revealed 5 - 7 % of players positive seems absurdly low.

For MLB.com to describe present day steroid use at the big league level as "infinitesimal" is ridiculous. Well at least I did learn how to spell infinitesimal" from this PR piece.

Any baseball fan who claims that they didn't know that steroid use was commonplace in MLB over the last 15 - 20 years is either naive or lying.

Steroids and amphetamines will remain in the game, it's the perception of what's happening that is being controlled, not drug use.

The question that I want answered is why so much talk about it the last few years? We all knew Big Mac & Sammy were juiced, nobody said anything. What has changed? Has the zeitgeist done a 180 in America? Or is the zeitgeist unchanged, is Barry Bonds symbolic of something that a lot of Americans dislike? Maybe I don't need Buster Olney, maybe I need Lewis Lapham. ( and my bong ).

Pete Laforest update. According to ESPN, Laforest missed all of 06 ( it's Clintonian to point out that this isn't 100% accurate ) with a "lower abdominal strain". Laforest has moved up to 4 from 5 on the depth chart at Catcher because Todd Greene, who entered camp as the #3, just dislocated his throwing shoulder. Another hoser Catcher is involved here. George Kottaras, who in all likelihood will open the season as the #1 in Pawtucket, is a Canuck. Kottaras was obtained from the Red Sox for David Wells late last season.

Evidently, Grady Little has decided to hit Furcal leadoff and Pierre second. I think he's got it wrong, it should be reversed. Pierre will run less hitting second and if he's not running he isn't as valuable. Speed is also Furcal's game, but he has more sock than Pierre and would benefit from seeing more fastballs with Pierre on. What we folks outside of the game, Gammons calls us "people between walls" or something akin, don't know though, are the egos and psyches involved.

Is winning your arbitration case always a good thing? Todd Walker won his arbitration case against the Padres, submitting a figure of $3.95 million. The Padres can walk away from $3.3 million of that commitment if they release him before March 15. Remember Walker is expected to be a backup. He won't make up that $3.3 million this year if he is released.

Brandon League is hurting. Very bad news for the Jays. Are you ready for Jason Frasor & Jeremy Accardo as the set up guys?

Early reports from Arizona are that Bonds looks very healthy, moving very well, which indicates his knee is doing well. I predict a big year, 35 homers.

I may become a Curt Schilling fan. He's taking some heat this spring over the size of his gut. That's endearing, well, if you're me.

Buster Olney has link to an article in the AJC re. Liberty Media & The Braves. Amongst Liberty's holdings are a 51% stake in a "sports betting-information Web site". We all know that owners are to stay far away from gambling however Mr. Selig has been lenient in enforcing the rules recently. Marian Ilitch owns a casino and Steve Swindal ( yes, Mr. Steinbrenner's drunk son in law ) is in the horse track / slot machine business. Also in this article, speculation that Liberty's ownership of the Braves will be short term. It will be interesting to see where John Schuerholz is in a year.

From bizofbaseball.com, the Nationals have a 1 year agreement with a Mexican League team to "share" scouting information and "information". According to this same article they have recently become very agressive in their International signings. Jim Bowden knows he needs a lot of players, the system is bare from the years of MLB ownership neglect.

My February 18 post links to an interview on Baseball Prospectus between David Laurila from BP and an academic / sabermetrician named Andy Andres. My post that day mistakenly identifies Mr. Laurila as the academic / sabermetrician, not Mr. Andres.

From the basement Feb 21 07

2007-02-21T20:58:00.000-05:00

Keeping track of the Canucks.

LH Eric Cyr signed with the Dodgers, I'd lost track of him. Evidently he played in Taiwan last year before pitching very briefly for the Quebec City Capitales of the Indy Can Am League. He then went on to play for Team Canada at the 08 Olympics qualifier. He's had a good career, drafted in the 30th round in 98 by the Padres, he's bounced around the minors mostly at Triple A up until last season. He did pith 6 innings for the Padres in 02.

C Pierre Luc ( Pete ) Laforest, local boy from Gatineau, has re signed with the Padres. Laforest is also enjoying a good professional career. He was signed as a free agent by the Devil Rays in 97. After 8 years in the D Rays organization, including brief stints with the big league team in 03 & 05 he was claimed off waivers by the Padres in Dec 05. I haven't been able to confirm that he was hurt last year but the only stats I can find are 15 AB's for the Padres Rookie Level team. Better luck to Pete in 07, he also has played for Team Canada extensively.

ESPN reports that 3B Corey Koskie is not expected to be fit to play when the season starts. Ongoing concussion problems.

Carl at the Ottawa Lynx blog http://ottawalynx.blogspot.com/ might be interested to know that former Lynx Brooks Badeaux signed with Tampa, guess we'll be seing him this year in a Durham Bulls uni.

Also for Carl, re. C Carlos Ruiz. According to ESPN "The Phillies' official site is reporting that Ruiz is a "lock" to make the major league roster." If that is accurate is Chris Coste, the real life Crash Davis, the Lynx #1 catcher?

The Winnipeg Sun is reporting that the Indy Northern League is interested in putting a team in Saskatoon. The Northern League Commissioner, Clark Griffith, is the source of the speculation. I suspect they are floating a trial balloon. On one hand it makes sense, with teams in Winnipeg, Calgary and Edmonton, a team in Saskatoon would reduce travel expenses for the other Cdn teams. On the other hand, Edmonton is struggling at the gate and I don't think attendance is boffo in Calgary either. Any Indy ball in Ottawa rumors? The Can Am League has a team in Quebec City.....

Maury Brown at bizofbaseball.com is telling us to check out the interview in Sports Business Journal with MLBAM's Rob Bowman. I am a subscriber to SBJ, but am 3 issues behind because I moved and they haven't caught up to me yet. I'm mad as hell and....I'm gonna call first thing tomorrow AM.

At http://www.hardballtimes.com/ there is a column by John Beamer from Feb 19 "Measuring & Managing the Value of Ballclubs (Part I ). Mr. Beamer is reiterating what I read repeatedly, the Industry is flush with cash. "The average franchise grew in value by an astonishing 14% between 2004 and 2005, outperforming almost every other asset class. To put it another way, Frank McCourt trousered an extra $60 million in paper capital gain last year simply by owning the LA Dodgers." Since 1995 the Compound Annual Growth Rate ( I won't pretend to undertand exactly what that is ) of the franchises collectively ( save the expansion teams ) is 13.1%. I guess that's good because Mr. Beamer describes it as "hedonistic".

As for the unprecedented free agent spending this offseason, Mr. Beamer echoes what Maury Brown told USA Today, that it is a "market correction". To quote Mr. Beamer "Since 2004 average payroll has risen by only 2% a year, but values have accelerated at 15% a year. Based on that we’d expect 2007 to be a bumper payroll year and the current goings on in the free-agent world definitely support that." He goes on "....valuations have risen faster than mean payroll over the last 15 years. Total payroll as a percent of total value has dropped from 24% to 22% over the last decade. Collectively the owners are dripping with lucre."

I comment frequently that I don't believe that the sabermetricians are accurately measuring defensive performance. As an example I frequently point to their opinion that Derek Jeter is crap in the field. To wit, here is a quote dated Feb 21 from Matthew Carruth @ http://www.hardballtimes.com/ "Derek Jeter is not good at defense. I don't care what the Gold Gloves say, he's not. Furthermore, he's nowhere near one of the 50 greatest defensive players of the last 50 years. He might be one of the 50 worst cumulatively given that he's allowed a ton of playing time at a premium position because of his bat, but 50 best? Seriously? They're wrong." The 50 greatest over the last 50 years that Mr. Carruth is referencing is a marketing gimmick courtesy of Rawlings. They are asking fans to vote on the top 50 over the last 50 yada yada. I'll say it again, what am I missing? Am I impressed by his star power, the Yankee uni, the smile, the high end tail that he gets? Derek Jeter is crap in the field?

Baseball Prospectus just published their list of Top 100 prospects, we are still awaiting the word from on high at Baseball America. For what it's worth the Blue Jays have two players on the list. Travis Snider at # 40 and Adam Lind at # 43. Both are hitters first, OF DH types second. Canuck Joey Votto, likely coming to Lynx Stadium with Lousville this year, is # 53. Votto is a 1B, MVP in his AA league last year.

This has only very recently come to my attention but it is interesting. Last May, Seton Hall released results of a poll they conducted measuring Americans attitudes towards steroids in baseball and in particular towards Barry Bonds. Well, no surprise, opinion is divided between African Americans and non African Americans. "....35 percent of African-American respondents thought race was the most important reason for Bonds being the center of attention on the steroid questions, while only 2 percent of non African-Americans felt that race was the reason for Bonds being “singled out.”" I think race is a big part of it, as I've said before, why is Jason Giambi not scorned remotely as much as Bonds? Is it race? On the other hand, Gary Sheffield is part of the Balco scandal as well and it is also rarely mentioned. I'll blog more about this after I read "Forty Million Dollar Slaves" next week but I've always thought a big part of the hatred towards Bonds is not just that he is African American but that he is an arrogant, conceited, aloof, obnoxious, ungrateful African American. I think baseball fans, moreso than fans of NBA or NFL, aren't comfortable with this type of African American athlete. The poll also indicates something that I've blogged about before, that most sports fans are not keenly interested in this story, it's only baseball's chattering classes ( I'm at the front of that line ) that are interested. "Meanwhile, Bonds’ alleged use of performance enhancing drugs is likely of more interest to the media and sports commentators than it is to sports fans, according to the poll. Sixty two percent of sports fans have little or no interest in stories about Bonds and his alleged use. Only 11 percent have high interest." Thanks a lot to Arthur Pincus for emailing me the poll press release.

Satan's arrival in Arizona is imminent ( Bonds )

2007-02-19T18:03:00.000-05:00

With the arrival imminent of the satanic Barry Bonds to spring training, let's take a look at back at some of the commentary re Bonds, steroids, Balco etc. on this blog the past handful of weeks.

January 31 07

Does MLB honestly believe that there will be a fan backlash as a result of Bonds breaking Ruth's record? Or are they just wacking his pee pee to appease the fans? I think the latter, this will be the biggest story in sports this year. I believe no publicity is bad publicity. I'll be shocked if attendance is down in 07. Bet your ass, finger waggling moralists across America will be flocking to their home parks in droves when Barry comes to town to express their contrived outrage.

Speaking of steroids, Sammy, one of the incredible shrinking men, signed with the Rangers. I heard somebody say recently that he is the size of a jockey. Will he make the team? I say yes unless he stinks in spring training. I can only conclude that the Rangers think the novelty will put some butts in the seats, and if he gets close to 600 that will generate a lot of interest. Sammy is still a celebrity. Will he be scorned like Barry? No, because the fans soak up all that false humility that Sammy exudes. Baseball been berry.......I love the fans......bs. Barry's the opposite, I'm the greatest and I don't give a shit what you think. I prefer Barry.

Why did the Jason Grimsley HGH scandal die? Because Caucasian ( in the extreme ) American sports legend Roger Clemens had his name linked to it?

This about steroids but not necessarily Barry. Many baseball fans, including me, wonder why our game is ridiculed far and wide over performance enhancing drugs while the NFL receives in comparison very little criticism. Stephen Brunt in the Globe & Mail has an excellent column on this subject today. He quotes one of his readers on this subject "Baseball is the game of American myth. Football is the game of American reality." Wonderfully stated.

Feb 10 07

MLB and Bud Selig are so petty with Bonds. They reject Bond's contract on some insignificant " promotional appearances " clause, they leak that he tested positive for amphetamines, they leak that he blamed a teammate ( and name the teammate ) to add embarrassment. Bonds is dirty, get in line. At the power hitting positions I would argue it's been, by in large, a level playing field for a number of years, i.e. Juiced.

Has there been no interest in Bonds from anybody but the Giants because teams think he will hurt their gate or are they afraid of pissing off Bud Selig?

Read today that what Bonds is really pissed about is the leak about the inclusion of language that allows the Giants to terminate his contract if he is indicted. I don't blame him for being pissed about that. If you are bargaining in good faith you don't continually leak details which are embarrassing to the other party.

Peter MacGowan is spineless, he tacitly allows MLB to leak all the anti Bonds info they please by not standing up to Selig on Bonds behalf.

Feb 11 07

David Steele in the Baltimore Sun points out what a stark contrast it will be, the stage managing of Bonds 756th in comparison to McGwire's 62nd. I hope Bonds hits #756 on the road just to hear and see the reaction. Sanctimonious asses.

So much is made of everything happening off the field with Bonds, but when you get down to winning and losing, the Giants need Barry big time. It would be next to impossible to find a power hitter at this point in the season and the Giants have nobody else. What would the middle of their order look like without Bonds? Winn, Durham, Feliz? Ryan Klesko? The NL West is wide open, the Giants with Barry have as good a shot as anybody else.

I don't remember a pro athlete in my lifetime who alienated every sector of the game as completely as Bonds; teammates, media, PA, ownership, fans.

Why didn't Jason Giambi get crucified by the NY media over his grand jury testimony / admissions?

Feb 13

Steroids in the baseball news again today. This from the AP, the PA "asked a federal appeals court late Monday to revisit its December decision to allow investigators probing steroids in sports to use the names and urine samples of more than 100 players who tested positive for performance enhancing drugs."

If the PA doesn't win this court battle the players will have gotten screwed. We all know the owners and players agreed the results of these tests would remain anonymous. The PA agreed to the testing in 03 to determine whether or not testing with penalties would be introduced in 04. Because there were more than 5 % positive tests ( approximately 100 out of 1400 + ) said testing with penalties was introduced for 04.

The low percentage of positive tests boggles me. 100 out of 1400 is 7%. Am I to believe that in a typcial MLB game, 7% or 3.5 out of the 50 players on the rosters are taking performance enhancing drugs? That figure seems ludicrously low to me. Are the cheaters really that far ahead of the regulators? I know there is no test for HGH and perhaps that contributes to the low figure but I have to think that the bulk of pharmaceutical cheating is amphetamines & roids.

Once spring training games commence I will be on MLB.com a lot until the end of the season, that's where I read most of the boxscores. I find the beat writers on MLB.com are also well informed. The one problem I have though is their reporting of off the field issues. For example, today there is a typical off season story, "Top 20 topics for Spring Training". There is only one mention of Barry Bonds, "Bonds won't be the only one in the spotlight as Giants camp
opens in Scottsdale, Ariz. The other Barry, Zito, just crossed the Bay....." Come on, the Barry saga isn't one of the Top 20 spring training stories? How much media will be at the Giants camp the first day Barry arrives?

Feb 15 07

Josh Peters from Yahoo had it right in his December 21 article, http://sports.yahoo.com/top/news?slug=jo-balco122106&prov=yhoo&type=lgns Troy Ellerman has confessed to being the source of BALCO Grand Jury leaks. I never took this article seriously. Maybe it's because I'm a Canuck, but this combination of Professional Rodeo and practicing law, well....Rodeo? If your Victor Conte you have to know things don't look good when your legal counsel is also part of PROFESSIONAL RODEO. Am I just a smug, chauvinistic Canadian?

I still don't think we know the whole story, there is some unpleasant history in Professional Rodeo between Ellerman and a PI, Larry McCormack, who tipped off the FBI to Ellerman. Bonds' attorney also doesn't believe that Ellerman is the source of the leaks because he didn't have access to all the information that was leaked. Is Ellerman to BALCO as Lee Harvey Oswald was to JFK? Should I retire my bong?

I've always wondered why a Grand Jury investigation into BALCO. No doubt Conte, Valente, Anderson et. al are guilty as sin. But pro ( and amateur, Marion Jones, Tim Montgomery ) athletes across North America are being supplied with steroids, why BALCO and not one of the others? Grand Jury investigations are not the result of happenstance. I started to go all Oliver Stone when President Bush got up on his soapbox about steroids in a State of the Union address, and there was that self serving show in front of Congress with parents of kids who had died from steroids being trotted out to shame pro athletes. ( Screw off, if your teenager is on steroids have a look at the values you have taught them, not to pro athletes ). But I read this article http://www.usatoday.com/sports/2007-01-24-ryan-balco-cover_x.htm in January about the lead prosecutor in the BALCO investigation and I think the genesis of the witch hunt is no more complicated than a failed jock looking to get even. Thanks again to Biz of Baseball for linking to the story.

Feb 18 07

Murray Chass reminds us that there is a new U.S. Attorney atop the Grand Jury investigation into Barry. The new guy will have to decide whether to continue efforts to indict Bonds or drop it and move on.

How loyal is Greg Anderson to Barry Bonds? He is presently in jail for a second time for refusing to testify to the grand jury about Barry. He was incarcerated November 20 and earlier last year was jailed for 57 days.

Murray Chass asked Anderson's lawyer, Mark Geragos, about speculation that Barry will look after Anderson financially for refusing to testify and going to jail. The lawyer's response; “There’s no truth to that,” Well, what else is he to say?

I am so sick of reading that it has yet to be proven definitively that Bonds is / was juiced. BS. My point is, yeah, get in line. Everyone, fans, reporters, players, owners, agents, PA, has known for years. What is the source of all this contrived outrage?

Of course Bud Selig is saying nothing about MLB's official plans ( if any ) for #756. He could still get lucky, by which I mean, indictment or injury.

From the Basement Feb 18 07

2007-02-18T20:02:00.000-05:00

Murray Chass reminds us that there is a new U.S. Attorney atop the Grand Jury investigation into Barry. The new guy will have to decide whether to continue efforts to indict Bonds or drop it and move on..

How loyal is Greg Anderson to Barry Bonds? He is presently in jail for a second time for refusing to testify to the grand jury about Barry. He was incarcerated November 20 and earlier last year was jailed for 57 days.

Murray Chass asked Anderson's lawyer, Mark Geragos, about speculation that Barry will look after Anderson financially for refusing to testify and going to jail. The lawyer's response; “There’s no truth to that,” Well, what else is he to say?

I am so sick of reading that it has yet to be proven definitively that Bonds is / was juiced. BS. My point is, yeah, get in line. Everyone, fans, reporters, players, owners, agents, PA, has known for years. What is the source of all this contrived outrage?

Of course Bud Selig is saying nothing about MLB's official plans ( if any ) for #756. He could still get lucky, by which I mean, indictment or injury.

Keith Foulke announced his retirment. He was never the same after the Red Sox won the 04 World Series. He allowed himself to be abused that postseason and it paid off in the championship but you have to wonder if it cost him the balance of his career.

The Nationals signed Ronnie Belliard to a minor league deal. I will be shocked if this doesn't result in Christian Guzman going to the bench ( or released ) and Felipe Lopez moving to short. It's not a long term solution for the Nats, Lopez is better at second.

Jim Bowden is signing a lot of veteran free agents recently. In addition to Belliard, earlier in the week he signed Dimitri Young & Tony Batista. One of the reasons behind the signings is his hope that he can deal them at the trade deadline for prospects. The Nationals system is awful due to years of neglect from the league. I'm not criticizing the league, there was no motive ( i.e. money ) for any of the owners to plough one more dime into the Expos / Nats than was absolutely necessary while they waited for someone to build them a stadium for free.

The Pirates bad luck with picking Starting Pitchers in the First Round continues. In 00, 01 & 02 the Pirates picked in the first round, Sean Burnett, John Van Benschoten & Bryan Bullington. All three have had plenty of injury trouble. 06 first rounder, RH Brad Lincoln, is now hurt. I don't think the Pirates should be criticized, predicting the health of pitchers is a fools game.

There is a guest column @ http://www.bizofbaseball.com/ from Feb 14 written by Wayne G. McDonnell Jr. Mr. McDonnell is well qualified to write about the baseball business, he has worked for MSG as an accountant & analyst as well as being an Asst Professor of sports management at NYU. He is very crtical of the record free agent spending in MLB this past offseason. I was surprised to see this column on this site. Maury Brown, who is de facto Bizofbaseball, told USA Today in January that the spending was a " market correction ", that salaries rose 18% during the last CBA. I believe revenues increased 40% during the last CBA.

http://www.bizofbaseball.com/index.php?ption=com_content&task=view&id=749&Itemid=41
Another guest column at bizofbaseball, this one written by Diane M. Grassi. This column is extremely critical of MLB's relationship ( or absence of one ) with African Americans. Ms. Grassi details the efforts that MLB makes to develop players in foreign countries and compares them unfavorably with MLB's efforts to develop players in urban African American communities. Ms. Grassi also comments on recent changes in immigration laws that are favorable to MLB. Given the declining numbers of Americans on MLB rosters, 23% of players in 06 were from outside the US, more than double the percentage in 1990, this is increasingly important to the industry. 40% of minor leaguers are from outside the US. Most of the foreign born players are from the Dominican Republic. Ms. Grassi points out that most of the kids from the DR who come to the US to play minor league baseball remain in the US once their visas expire and work illegally, predominantly in NYC.

Coincidentally, I recently purchased the book "Forty Million Dollar Slaves" by NY Times reporter William Rhoden. This book is a condemnation of the exploitation of African American athletes by American professional sports. Should be reading it next week in Mexico.

A link on http://www.thesportseconomist.com/ to a Feb 17 article in the WSJ about the declining demand for luxury boxes across North American pro sports. Different reasons are given. Interesting to note though that with all the talk about RSN's, national tv deals, new media, multiple platforms, licensing etc. that "ticket revenues remain a sizable part of overall revenue, accounting for as much as 65% of overall revenue for some baseball teams. Premium seating, which includes luxury suites and club seats, can make up close to 40% of that."

Also at http://www.thesportseconomist.com/ another link to a WSJ column. This, a book review of Economist J.C. Bradbury's upcoming "The Baseball Economist: The Real Game Exposed". Professor Radbury also has a blog http://www.sabernomics.com/ According to the WSJ review, more baseball orthodoxy is debunked by the math geeks. In particular that "protection" in the batting order is beneficial to a hitter. Professor Bradbury proves that this is a "myth". Well, he understands regression analysis(es) and I am in my basement...

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=5881&PHPSESSID=4626c13805186fad1b9ff85eea047ef7
Speaking of regression analysis, this is a link to a good interview with David Laurila. Mr. Laurila is a PHD in biology and is also a sabermetrician, teaching a course "Sabermetrics: The Objective Analysis of Baseball" at Tufts University in Medford, Massachusetts. He has some interesting comments about steroids in baseball, and in particular HGH, he is a PHD in biology. He did remind me that baseball was reluctant to introduce weight training to the sport. I remember back in the day the commentators would talk about how being too too muscle bound detracted from a players all around abilities. As Mr. Laurila points out, this changed in the 80's and 90's.

From the basement Feb 15

2007-02-15T19:41:00.000-05:00

http://www.bizofbaseball.com/ I thought there was nothing new left to read about the DirecTV - MLB EI issue. Well, leave it to Maury Brown. Maury has a link to an article, http://biz.yahoo.com/indie/070209/620_id.html which makes a compelling argument that MLB is removing their EI package from cable in part, to drive fans to their MLB.TV broadcasts. MLB.TV is part of MLBAM. According to this article, MLB is positioning the wildly successful MLBAM for an IPO. Moving viewers from cable to MLB.TV would increase the value of MLBAM. Evidently, late in 05 MLB was ready to proceed with the IPO but backed out because "team owners did not want chests full of cash on their doorsteps as they were in the midst of negotiating a new labor contract. That excuse is no longer valid because MLB and the Major League Baseball Players Association reached a new five-year agreement last October." Well, business is about one thing and one thing only, the dirty, rotten, filthy, stinkin money.

Some good reporting on ESPN.com about steroid use amongst players from the Dominican Republic. The spin is that because of the desparate poverty in the country, young players take anything & everything in hopes of furthering their status as prospects. The articles also illustrate something I've read repeatedly over the years, that the men that control these kids are exploiting them big time. I didn't know this, there are roughly 6,000 "independent baseball acadamies" in the DR. I knew of their existence, I am surprised by the large number of them. The acadamies are operated by "buscones", baseball street agents. The buscones have no interest in these kids beyond their earning potential, abuse abounds.

There is a Canadian aspect to the story. A "trainer" on the island, Angel Presinal, is extremely well connected to many of the superstars from the island. "Presinal has been a persona non grata around the majors since an October 2001 incident in which he and former two-time American League MVP Juan Gonzalez, then Presinal's top client, were connected to an unmarked bag discovered by Canadian Border Service agents at the Toronto airport. The bag had come off a Cleveland Indians charter flight and, according to a New York Daily News story last summer, contained anabolic steroids and hypodermic needles." Presinal has
since been banned from all MLB clubhouses.

Apparently pro players from around the island flock to Presinal during the offseason for help with rehabs and conditioning. I can understand that, I'm certain many of these guys have a higher level of trust with a countryman than they do with the team employed trainers. In particular the younger players who haven't yet developed a workable command of English.

On the subject of Presinal's ban from MLB clubhouses, there is a growing trend around MLB to scale back the superstar's posses', which I think ( I am in my basement after all ) always includes a trainer(s). Isn't trainer a euphemism for something else? Let's be polite, supplement supplier? Barry's "trainer", Greg Anderson is in prison.

If you read the CP article yesterday previewing up and coming Canucks in MLB this year, there is an error. Yes, Scott Mathieson is a highly regarded Phillies prospect, but no, he will not play at the big league level this year. Mathieson underwent TJ surgery this offseason, the Phillies hope he can pitch in Short Season. Too bad for us Triple A fans in Ottawa, Mathieson would likely have pitched some of the season here.

Josh Peters from Yahoo had it right in his December 21 article, http://sports.yahoo.com/top/news?slug=jo-balco122106&prov=yhoo&type=lgns Troy Ellerman has confessed to being the source of BALCO Grand Jury leaks. I never took this article seriously. Maybe it's because I'm a Canuck, but this combination of Professional Rodeo and practicing law, well....Rodeo? If your Victor Conte you have to know things don't look good when your legal counsel is also part of PROFESSIONAL RODEO. Am I just a smug, chauvinistic Canadian?

I still don't think we know the whole story, there is some unpleasant history in Professional Rodeo between Ellerman and a PI, Larry McCormack, who tipped off the FBI to Ellerman. Bonds' attorney also doesn't believe that Ellerman is the source of the leaks because he didn't have access to all the information that was leaked. Is Ellerman to BALCO as Lee Harvey Oswald was to JFK? Should I retire my bong?

I've always wondered why a Grand Jury investigation into BALCO. No doubt Conte, Valente, Anderson et. al are guilty as sin. But pro ( and amateur, Marion Jones, Tim Montgomery ) athletes across North America are being supplied with steroids, why BALCO and not one of the others? Grand Jury investigations are not the result of happenstance. I started to go all Oliver Stone when President Bush got up on his soapbox about steroids in a State of the Union address, and there was that self serving show in front of Congress with parents of kids who had died from steroids being trotted out to shame pro athletes. ( Screw off, if your teenager is on steroids have a look at the values you have taught them, not to pro athletes ). But I read this article
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/2007-01-24-ryan-balco-cover_x.htm in January about the lead prosecutor in the BALCO investigation and I think the genesis of the witch hunt is no more complicated than a failed jock looking to get even. Thanks again to Biz of Baseball for linking to the story.

The Cubs are selling ad space on the outfield walls at Wrigley for the first time this season. I understand, I'm a purist but also a realist. Reminds me though of my first and only trip to Chicago a few Novembers ago to see The Bears. ( I won't count being stranded at O'Hare several years ago ). You know you're a baseball geek, because it's November, you've never been to Chicago before and the first place you go is Wrigley Field just to see the exterior and walk around it. Thoroughly enjoyed it, can't wait to go back.

Latest invites to Nationals camp, Dimitri Young & Tony Batista. I don't remember a team with so many veteran NRI's coming to camp, at last count 33. See my post from Feb 03 for comments re. Batista, he has quite a history with the Jays & Expos.

I agree with Matthew Carruth at The Hardball Times, the Carlos Zambrano posturing is not interesting.

On the subject of http://www.hardballtimes.com/ they provide a link to a 2 part interview on gaslampball.com with Paul DePodesta. I have been asking this offseason, where is Paul DePodesta? Well, now I know, reunited with Sandy Alderson in San Diego. As the Gaslamp guys point out, DePodesta is a polarizing figure in MLB.

The DePodesta interview is very good. It's not the SABR numbers fest that you might anticipate, in fact it is primarily about the nuts and bolts of the Padres baseball operation. I was also happy to read DePodesta's opinions about what he refers to as "defensive metrics". He and I are in agreement that the Rob Neyer / Baseball Prospectus community have not answered the question yet on measuring defensive play statistically. "There is a lot more subjectivity with defense. It's also just a lot tougher to measure. The primary reason being, as of right now, we can't measure where every single player starts. So just measuring ultimately the outcome deprives us of the beginning context of the play, which is critically important if you are going to use it as a reliable metric." Yes. However I do agree with the long held SABR opinion that fielding percentage is a worthless stat.

I hope Alderson & DePodesta have success in San Diego, they deserve as much credit ( or derision ) for "Moneyball" as Billy Beane. Beane never met a microphone he didn't like.

I love the political incorrectness of this. From the Philadelphia Daily News a description of Jon Lieber's new truck: "Lieber rumbled into spring training yesterday in his 2-week-old Ford F650 SuperTruck, a customized blue-and-black beast, 9 feet, 2 inches tall and 25,000 pounds, with six doors, 45-inch wheels, seating for seven, a satellite dish and customized leather interior." I assume he hasn't seen An Inconvenient Truth.

In light of the Liberty Media acquisition of the Braves, respected sports business writer John Helyar has a nice article arguing why corporate ownership of teams is bad for their fans. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?id=2766652

Robert MacLeod of the Globe & Mail tells us that Brandon Leaugue is a major key for the Blue Jays this year. Absolutely, I think it's League or bust for the eighth. I am optimistic, he has big talent.

Former Lynx Termel Sledge is the odds on favorite to be the Padres starting left fielder when the regular season begins.